Fox polls traditionally exaggerate Democrat strength.
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- Donald R. McClarey
Donald R. McClarey
Cradle Catholic. Active in the pro-life movement since 1973. Father of three, one in Heaven, and happily married for 43 years. Small town lawyer and amateur historian. Former president of the board of directors of the local crisis pregnancy center for a decade.
Parents having a say in what the school is teaching their children?
Unheard of. [ Tisk tisk. ]
ALL polls traditionally exaggerate Democrat strength.
Fixed that for you, Don. It’s one of the challenges Richard Baris is always going on about.
Naw, plenty of polls overstate GOP strength, although more do overstate Dem strength. Baris is a good pollster and demonstrates how difficult it is to gauge GOP strength because so much of it is in exurban and rural areas, the reluctance of many GOP voters to participate in polls and the propensity of liberals to do so.
The Democrats will find a way to cheat with impunity, and McAuliffe will “win.” But I hope & pray I am wrong and have to happily eat crow on that prediction.
Rasmussen leaps to mind as a poll that tends to overstate GOP numbers, though that firm has been trying to find better formulas.
As Don points out, polling is getting more and more difficult, with the shy voter phenomenon spurning them or returning false results. And bad polling misses only reinforces this cycle of the flipped bird to pollsters.
The one firm that seems to have solid returns is Trafalgar.
Youngkin will need a margin like that of the Fox poll to win. Anything that is a nailbiter will go to the Dems. Just ask Dino Rossi and Norm Coleman.
Folks any more comments along the line of why bother voting because the Democrats will just steal the election will be deleted by me. It is this type of Trump parroting garbage that cost us two Senate seats in Georgia with about twenty five percent of Republican voters sitting it out. Democrats always cheat. It doesn’t matter if the race isn’t close. The possible exception is the 2020 Presidential election, but that one was far outside the norm in many ways. The main person to blame for that fiasco was Trump who couldn’t be bothered to organize opposition to Democrats changing the rules in states prior to the election, acted like a raging maniac in the first debate and then challenged state results after the election in the most clownish, hopeless way imaginable. I voted for Trump twice and I will vote again for him in 2024, but Trump too often thinks his big mouth is an effective substitute for planning and personnel to execute well thought out plans.
You want to fight the Left? Go out and vote and encourage other people to do the same. Always remember that defeatism, by definition, is for losers. Not kidding folks. I am not in the mood for defeatism and I will not tolerate it on this site.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7l9QmtiXHU
As Don points out, polling is getting more and more difficult, with the shy voter phenomenon spurning them or returning false results. And bad polling misses only reinforces this cycle of the flipped bird to pollsters
I think it’s less a shy voter problem than pollsters’ disinclination to undertake the laborious process of producing probability samples. They generate convenience samples and then test various ways of massaging the raw data. Some pollsters are deliberately peddling junk surveys as well.
I’m just hoping Youngkin pulls a Lindsey Graham / Susan Collins upset and the margin is too wide for the Democratic ballot box stuffers to defeat him.
Baris shows Youngkin up in his poll released today by 2.9 points.
I apologize, Donald.
No apology needed LQC. You are a treasured compadre of the blog!
Censorship by TAC. No different then the leftists. Goodbye.
:waves goodbye with a smile:
Censorship by TAC. No different then the leftists. Goodbye.
Hardly Paul. We will not seek you out and attempt to cancel you, for instance, nor will we proclaim you a traitor to conservatism. Your comment was deleted because you did not pay attention to what I wrote earlier in the day. Our blog, our rules.