This is BEVERLY HILLS this weekend. Yes Beverly Hills, CALIFORNIA. Meanwhile Joe Biden can't get 40 cars to come hear him speak even with celebrity speakers. Something is happening that isn't reflected in polls… Look at how diverse the crowd is. This is @theDemocrats nightmare! pic.twitter.com/6Jq5wmtB9d
— Robby Starbuck (@robbystarbuck) October 25, 2020
Large Trump rallies are breaking out across the nation, many in unlikely places. Meantime Biden can barely get a dozen people to show up at one of his rare public appearances. It calls to mind the British retreat from Concord when they were swarmed by tens of thousands of militia. A British officer implored the commander of the column to surrender. His reply was true, “To whom? They have no leader!”. Mass movements, with real popular enthusiasm, are hard to beat.
Good omen! Thanks be to God. God likes Trump.
These are the Americans that have witnessed 3 1/2 years of liberal Bull Hokey. Witch hunts and biased news creates enthusiasm for the Non-politican trying his hardest to preserve freedoms that the Left are trying to destroy.
God bless America!
My advice? Unless you really enjoy drama, don’t bother watching the election coverage Tuesday night. Wait until Wednesday morning. And don’t necessarily believe what they’re telling you Wednesday morning because it will probably change by the time the evening news rolls around.
The priest at my Parish is holding a Rosary prayer vigil on Tuesday night:
https://fb.watch/1mvLYttYDq/
I shall participate.
Anyways, related thoughts from Power Line Blog’s John Hinderacker:
The polling industry simply has not corrected the problems from 2016. Another problem is that most of the pollsters are postulating a record breaking number of voters which isn’t likely to happen. Add in the fact that in many areas of this country Trump supporters have been subject to violence and/or losing their employment, and it is a recipe for Trump strength to be underestimated, probably by four to six points. The dirty little secret of course is that most polls are junk, and have always been junk. They are conducted too quickly, with samples that are too small and often are slanted to urban areas where they have a better response rate. The saving grace for pollsters is that most races are not close, and they take credit for calling a race that a child of ten could have called.
One head scratcher for me-why is the Biden team running TV commercials in the Chicago area? I know it’s not flipping red so why would they waste the money?
If Trump’s ground game is what they say it is, he can win. Enthusiasm is important, but unenthusiastic votes count just the same.
And Ernst’s advice is well taken–Tuesday night isn’t going to tell us much. Especially in Pennsylvania, where the Dems on the State Supreme Court have practically given their party brethren a license to print ballots.
Buckle up–2000 is going to seem like a friendly chat at the Kiwanis Club by comparison.
Ken, I imagine Chicago’s tv market covers southeastern Wisconsin. Same reason he’s advertising in Sioux Falls. He’s not going to win South Dakota, but he’s trying to stay competitive in Southwest Minnesota and Northwest Iowa.
And Ernst’s advice is well taken–Tuesday night isn’t going to tell us much. Especially in Pennsylvania, where the Dems on the State Supreme Court have practically given their party brethren a license to print ballots.
Barrett will be arriving at the Supreme Court in the midst of the worst brewing fire storm in many decades. Hopefully she will be a check on Roberts’ tendency to always give a win to the Democrats when it counts. I actually preferred Souter, at least he was forthright.
My concern is that the polls’ bizarre insistence that Biden leads is a ruse to make the planned voter fraud plausible…
If the results are contested for weeks like they were in 2000, I expect we’ll see riots break out again…
Clinton- Rioting is going to happen in any case. It’s been planned for months.
You’re being ridiculous, Clinton.
First, riots can’t break out when they haven’t stopped, and secondly– there will be riots no matter what happens!
(Sorry, I couldn’t resist a straight line like that, my dark humor is acting up again….)
My concern is that the polls’ bizarre insistence that Biden leads is a ruse to make the planned voter fraud plausible…
You say ruse, I say strategy.
Don’t be surprised if any or all of the following happen a week from tomorrow:
Biden or a surrogate declares Biden the winner, despite either evidence to the contrary or no without supporting evidence.
The national media declare Biden the winner despite either evidence to the contrary or without supporting evidence.
The national media either declare it too close to call or refuse to call it, despite evidence of an overwhelming Trump victory.
LQC.
Our Holy Rosary parish;
November 3rd agenda for our Nation and a president who respects the Right to Life for the born and unborn. [ Biden who? ]
0600 Mass
0700 Breakfast for all in Church basement.
0800 Exposition and Adoration of Jesus in the Eurchrist.
1730 Mass
1815 – 1830 repose.
Let’s get this done.
Storming heaven helped in 2016.
God help us.
Let’s storm heaven again!
Some days I feel that I am going mad. The contrast between what I see (large Trump rallies even in places like LA) and what the media is telling us is making me crazy. Besides fraud, I hate the mail-in voting because it makes it so easy for the uninformed and lazy to vote. Someone whose politics are formed by watching the harridans on “The View” might be too sluggish to stand in line on election day, but you don’t need a lot of energy to fill out a ballot in your living room.
Here’s the good news: Trump is killing Biden when it comes to cookie polls in PA. Bear in mind that this bakery is in a county won by Hill in 2016:
https://mobile.twitter.com/frodri_023/status/1320441579040100353
We’ve known that polls have severe selection problems since the Truman/Dewey election. In theory polling has been focused on finding ways to correct for these selection errors, with the best methods being found through self-correcting pressures (i.e. the best predicting pollers are given prestige and the others follow their methods).
But the extent that polling has really been “self-correcting” has always been doubtful, and 2016 showed that this was a complete myth. The big polls that predicted a Hillary Clinton victory largely were not chastised and the polls that predicted a Trump victory were mocked before and after the election. Indeed what the polling industry came up with instead were a myriad of explanations of how they were right but the election was essentially wrong (“there were a multitude of extraordinarily unlikely situations”) and so kept doing what they were doing for the current election.
Thus even in the absence of any fraud, it would be foolish to trust polls at this stage of the game. But does anyone really believe that polling agencies aren’t willing to push certain results for ideological reasons?
If Trump’s ground game is what they say it is, he can win. Enthusiasm is important, but unenthusiastic votes count just the same.
Dale, I’m concerned that the ground game in PA isn’t what it should be. I volunteered to do telephone polls for the local Trump setup. But these are not valuable…only 1% (roughly) of those called actually respond and they’re a mix of dems, independents and republicans. When I asked if I could do telephone calls of registered republican voters on election day to make sure they would vote, I was told that no such program was planned. Big mistake! Bush, for all his faults had a fine ground game, telephone calls of republican voters who hadn’t voted on election day and offers of rides to the polls. McCain was awful, as was Romney. And we didn’t participate in 2016.
“When I asked if I could do telephone calls of registered republican voters on election day to make sure they would vote, I was told that no such program was planned. ”
This is concerning, since I have heard Trump has a good GOTV ground game. Once again, the GOP shoots itself in the foot, at least in your area.
Right now, I’m listening to Baris and Barnes. They think the PA polls inevitably overpoll Main Line voters of English descent (who overwhelmingly vote Dem) and underpoll South Philly Italians (who are strongly pro-Trump. No complaints from them about Trump’s crassness:) Of course, Philly as a whole will go Dem but they believe Biden will seriously underperform there.
That’s nice to know, but Trump still needs a good ground game.
There’s a report out there that Biden is underperforming Hillary and Trump is outperforming his 2016 self among early voters in Philadelphia.
Just over a week ago, I heard Barnes say that the Democrats were still out voting Republicans in early and mail in voting, which was expected, but the volume was NOT the numbers needed to offset the normally much larger Republican election day turnouts. Since then, I think it’s gotten worse for Biden.