As usual, TAC will have an open thread for election night. In regard to the presidential contest, most of the polls show Biden with a five to seven point advantage. A few polls show a much closer national race of 1-3 points either way. I think the polls showing a close race are more likely to be accurate. Additionally, while most national polls were placing Biden ahead yesterday, most electoral college projections showed Trump’s position improving, with him nipping at Biden’s heels. This really does not make much sense, but that is par for 2020. My hypothesis is that the polls have been off because of an inability of most them to accurately gauge Trump’s support. In 2016 nationally Trump’s strength was understated by two points and some of the state polls were way off in regard to Trump. Possibly deja vu all over again from 2016. We shall all find out soon enough.
Things to watch for tonight: If Trump takes Florida and Ohio he will likely need just one or two blue states to win. There will be likely a titanic contest in the upper Midwest tonight over Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Pennsylvania is called the Keystone State and might well be the key to this election. If Trump flips one of these states, than he can likely start calling himself Mr. President. New Hampshire and Maine 2 could be absolutely critical if the contest is close and Trump does not flip one of the states in the Upper Midwest or the Keystone State. In such a scenario, assuming that Trump takes Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, they set him up to win if he takes Nevada or New Mexico. Additionally, keep your eyes on Oregon. If there is one state I think might shockingly flip from blue to red, in defiance of all the polls, it would be that one. I made the same prediction for Oregon in 2016, but the riots in Portland may be the X factor this year.
In regard to the Senate, it could be a nail biter to see which party controls it. In the House the GOP has a steep hill to climb to retake it, but if Trump does have the red wave he has been touting, it is a possibility
It promises to be an exciting election night if not an edifying one! The massive early voting and voting by mail will likely delay final results in many states for days if not weeks. If the states are crucial to the final result, legal challenges could drag on well into December, if not January. What a potential mess.
God save the right and the United States of America.
As always, put your comments in the comboxes.
7:50 AM Just got back from voting. Some of the heaviest voting I have encountered in my 35 years of living in the Village. Impressive, especially considering how much early voting and mail in voting has already occurred. We have a measure called, Orwellianly enough, called the Fair Tax. I suspect that a lot of people who normally don’t vote will show up to vote against it, and that a fair number of those will cast a vote for Trump while they are at it.
12:05 PM Robert Barnes posted this a few minutes ago: What I am watching today. The big question on election day is who will vote. To date, both candidates’ supporters within low-propensity voter groups — minority millennials for Democrats & working class white voters for Republicans — under-participated in the early vote in their respective states. The latter was expected, due to Trump dissing vote by mail; the former was unexpected. If Trump’s vote turns out, but the Democratic vote does not, Trump is in good stead. The state I will watch to start will be Florida.
Reports I have seen from Florida indicate a very, very heavy GOP turnout. If this keeps up Trump could have a victory margin of 330K-500K in the Sunshine State. Governor De Santis has announced that he believes that Florida will be able to announce a winner by 9:00 PM EST.
12:08 PM Odd statement from the Biden campaign manager that they don’t need Florida or Pennsylvania to win 270. In theory true; in practice if Trump takes the Keystone State the Democrats are facing another four years of Trump.
12:30 PM: Barnes:
Florida is a state with live-time party registration reporting of who is voting, and its party registration is a pretty good representation of its voting intentions, with possibly a slight bias toward Democrats as some older, ancestral registered Democrats vote more Republican these days than visa-versa. GOP came into Election Day w/ a 100k vote deficit; by end of election day, they hope to lead by 300K to 400K. As of noon Florida time, they were on pace to do precisely that.
2:20 PM Be careful among those English: Keep hearing reports that the Amish are out in force in Pennsylvania to vote for Trump. Not that many votes, but a sure sign of enthusiasm and a testament to the threat rightly, they view Biden posing to their religious liberty.
2:52 PM Barnes:
Early reports for election day voting favorable to Trump so far, including increasing R edge in Florida, Maricopa County, Arizona, and anecdotal reports from across the country of the working class surge in voting anticipated by Trump’s team, predicted by polls, and forecast here. So far, so good.
Lots of reports of long lines at polling places in Pennsylvania in Republican areas.
6:00 PM
Fox calls Virginia for Biden. The quickness of the call could be ominous for Trump.
Vermont called for Biden.
Kentucky called for Trump.
6:17 PM Barnes:
Early calls as expected: Kentucky & Indiana to Trump; Vermont & Virginia to Biden. Trump overperforming so far in rural working class areas reporting; by the way, Silver predicted Trump’s margin in rural working class Kentucky would be down double digits.
6:25 PM Barnes:
New York Times confirms “Trump open at favorite in Florida” due to incredibly small Biden margin in Miami.
6:30 PM West Virginia called for Trump.
6:45 PM Barnes:
New York Times now gives Trump a 95% chance of winning Florida.
I’m calling Florida for Trump.
6:50 PM Best election coverage by far is Steve Bannon’s War Room.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVWvZFWBE9Y
7:00 PM A lot of blue states called for Biden and red states for Trump. No surprises. New Hampshire is too close to call. Biden wins three of Maine’s four electoral votes.
7:05 PM Barnes:
New York Times now has Trump as a heavy favorite to win Georgia.
While still early, polls & pundits predicted Trump would lose major ground with seniors, suburban voters, college+ voters, and Obama-supporting working class whites. So far, representative precincts show no real net move amongst those groups. Only big movement so far has been increased minority support for Trump.
7:15 PM Pollster Richard Baris calls Florida for Trump.
7:32 PM Barnes:
Trying to read tea leaves of states with partial reporting can be misleading this cycle due to partisan disparity in vote method. Instead, I look at culturally comparable counties where 98%+ of the vote is in. So far, the working class counties of Kentucky & Indiana show bigger Trump margins both in vote share & total vote than 2016. That bodes well for the comparable areas of midwest. Election then comes down to industrial working class areas, urban, suburban & ethnic voters in midwest.
7:50 PM Barnes:
New York Times now favors Trump to win North Carolina.
8:20 PM Ohio, North Carolina and Georgia looking good for Trump. Texas will not turn blue this year.
Corey Gardiner loses in Colorado. One down for the Republicans in the Senate.
8:25 PM Donald Trump is now the favorite to win on the betting markets.
8:30 PM The Fox call of Virginia was ludicrous. It is still very much of a dog fight.
New York Times says 91 percent that Trump takes North Carolina.
9:15 PM Jones loses in Alabama which erases the GOP Senate loss in Colorado.
9:25 PM You heard it here first, Trump is going to take Pennsylvania.
Fox is now saying that the GOP is 90% likely to hold the Senate.
9:37 PM A very good sign:
10:10 PM Another very good sign:
Vigo County, IN: A bellwether county that has predicted the President every year since 1952 has voted overwhelming for President Trump. 98.85% of precincts reporting…
Trump: 71.50%
Biden: 25.0%
10:25 PM Looks like Susan Collins is holding on to her Senate seat in Maine.
10:30 PM Fox has called Arizona for Biden, prematurely in my opinion.
McSally goes down to Kelly and the GOP is down one in the Senate.
11:20 PM To win Trump needs either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin and Michigan. He looks good in all three states. The calculation changes if Trump takes Arizona and/or Nevada.
12:10 AM Richard Baris, who I acclaim after tonight as the King of Pollsters, sees no path for victory for Biden in Wisconsin or Michigan.
5:10 AM Well. surprise, suprise. I get a f few hours sleep and I wake to find that a huge 160k vote drop from Milwaukee gives an 8K lead to Biden. A suspicious fellow might say that the Wisconsin election is being stolen in the middle of the night.
5: 15 AN Trump retains a lead of about 68k in Michigan and 646k in Pennsylvania, both within the margin of stealing by the Democrats.
Closing down this thread and starting a new one on post election chaos.
Almighty God, the fountain of all wisdom, to Whom we must account for all our powers and privileges: Guide and direct, we humbly pray, the minds of all those who are called to elect fit persons to serve in the Government of our Nation. Grant that in the exercise of our choice we may promote Thy glory, and the welfare of Thy people; and to those who shall be elected, we pray Thee, the spirit of wisdom and true godliness. All this we beg for the sake of our Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ. Amen.
From North Western Michigan.
Estimates from Trump’s appearance last night, in Traverse City, was 10,000 people. 10,000 Patriots.
Had Mass at 6am. Adoration going on now. We had 18 men at Mass. Afterward we had breakfast. Great conversations and excitement going into this day. I recognized a neighbor and parishioner standing in line to cast our ballot. We sang, My Country Tis of Thee, while we waited our turn to enter the township building. Seven folks in line. One woman thanked us for reminding her that patriotism isn’t dead when hymns that were commonly and publicly sung have not been silenced.
She has a daughter and son serving in the military.
God indeed is good.
Regardless of the outcome, God shines on US. For better or worse, we must have that Faith of old. The Faith of Job.
Trump 326 — Biden 212
Trump wins the popular vote.
Got to my polling site 5 mins before the polls opened. I was 34th in line. Took me a half hour to vote. About the same or slightly longer than 4 years ago.
‘Someone’s in trouble’: For what it’s worth, Joe Biden’s campaign isn’t sounding quite so confident about his chances right now
https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2020/11/03/someones-in-trouble-for-what-its-worth-joe-bidens-campaign-isnt-sounding-quite-so-confident-about-his-chances-right-now/
Based on what I have seen at the polls, I will make the same prediction that I have made dozens of times (the first time being in November 2016): In the 2020 election, Minnesota will go to Donald Trump.
Praying that whatever happens, we can manage– and hoping that Trump manages to pull it off again.
Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon: “We continue to have multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes” says they can win 270 even without PA and FL
Hillary Clinton: “Do not lose heart.”
Nate Silver: “Starting to fall down the Florida election day turnout rabbit hole. Already went for a run so I think I’d just better go and play some FIFA or something.”
Donald J. Trump “VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!”
(via Ace of Spades HQ)
Praying as well…
Let’s keep it going.
All hands on deck.
President Trump did better in Florida in early voting based on party registration and with the yuge turnout there today it’s only going better. I would be very, very shocked if he lost Florida. Despite what I’ve consistently said about MN I can see the possibility of the president missing it by a percentage point or 2, but Florida looks about as solid as you can get. If the President gets Florida and we leave the other “toss up” states open (meaning MN, WI, MI and PA) then Biden absolutely has to win both Pennsylvania and Michigan. I cannot find any plausible way for him to win without both of those states and without Florida. Meanwhile the president can pick and choose from the tossups.
What Foxfier said.
ditto Foxfier, and please God, whoever wins the Presidency, let the Senate go Republican.
Bitchute got deplatformed by one of their backend providers earlier today (though they seem to have found a workaround in the last couple of hours).
Disqus seems to be unusable on some sites, but only some sites. For example on John C. Wright’s journal I am instantaneously logged out every time that I try to log in (while it will switch to saying I am logged in, if I immediately click my notifications it will say that I need to log in to see them). Commenting there suddenly stopped and Down detector has a huge spike of complaints in the last three hours.
Very suspicious that this all happens on Election day. When they inevitably talk about Republicans interfering in the election, remember that they are projecting, as always.
Fox is no more reliable than CNN these days. Not saying they’re wrong, necessarily, but when was the last time the exit polls were worth a damn?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html
I always forget how dumb the rush to “call” states is. As if there is any prestige in calling it first, especially how many times state flip after they are called.
Everyone is calling Vermont with literally no votes counted. While I don’t expect Vermont to go for Trump this is still stupid.
If they were 95% positive Biden had won FL, there’s a 100% chance they would have already called it.
Florida’s basically a lock. The president has the majority without the panhandle, and Broward doesn’t look set for any of their usual shenanigans (not that it would really matter, since the margin of victory is likely to be too large).
The fun thing is to see how long they wait to call it. My prediction is two hours, and Fox News will be last.
The New York Times just moved all three of their “needle” states to the “likely Trump” column, despite all of them at least “tilting” Biden at the beginning. Gee, who could have seen coming that they would get all three predictions wrong?
CNN has just undeclared VA.
Can’t have their brain-dead audience thinking it’s over at 6pm already. What would that do to their ratings?
Also seen on Ace of Spades:
Trump lost Loudon county in Northern Virginia to Hillary by 17 points. He’s beating Biden by 13 points.
Is there anywhere where Biden is outperforming Hillary? Is there anywhere where Trump is underperforming his 2016 totals?
Check out Church Militant’s You Tube channel…. Michael Vories and company are doing a great job covering the results – and they pause to pray peroidically as well.
Tuberville defeats Jones offsetting Gardner in CO.
(Don beat me).
Donna Shalala went down tonight. That can’t be good for Democrats.
How sweet seeing that is!
“You heard it here first, Trump is going to take Pennsylvania.”
Only because it won’t be worth the bother of stealing. If Biden is going down anyway, it’ll be more important to protect the machine.
It’s amazing watching various leftist talking heads and seeing them go through the exact same beats that they did in 2016. The Young Turks going from incredibly smug to “well we’re not getting every state we said we would but we don’t need them!” to meltdown (they are just entering this phase). Nate Silver going from polls are absolute certain to more and more explanation about why no one knows anything and you can’t blame him for being wrong. They have no capacity for learning.
Fox finally called Florida for Trump.
At the rate things are going, I’m really hoping to watch Henry Olsen and Ben Shapiro eating some humble pie.
Will also be interesting to see if any never-trumpers begin some self-examination.
Fox called AZ for Biden. Not sure I trust that.
Trump wins OH.
Fox is really trying to play as Biden friendly as possible.
But the left will still say that they are 100% in the tank for Donald Trump.
Kelly wins AZ senate. Dems back to +1.
Not sure why hispanics are trending towards Trump everywhere except maybe Arizona. Too many expat Californians who’ve forgotten nothing and learned nothing? Too many early votes?
Arizona still hasn’t started the votes cast today.
Iowa is shifting to red because the same thing– the mail in first, then the big cities, and now the rest of the state is going.
Fox is as swamp friendly as can be. And on the news side, they were only ever “conservative” in the sense that they weren’t in the tank liberals.
My guess is the only reason they keep Hannity and Tucker around is because their shows pay all the bills.
I can’t find again, but I saw something somewhere, either Instapundit or Ace of Spades (because those are the other two sites I keep bouncing around to) that the Biden campaign was worried about losing NV, which makes sense given the inroads Trump has made this election among hispanic voters (The most hispanic county in the U.S. went from +60 Clinton to +5 Biden. That kind of swing should put NV and NM in play, and should have put AZ out of play.
Seen on Instapundit:
<
blockquote> “The Arizona count is … very odd. Numbers haven’t changed in 90 min. Very unlike past elections. Fox calling the state is bizarre[.]”
This is what happens when you hire a partisan hack Democrat to run your decision desk. Getting VA (and now maybe AZ) wrong, and refusing to call FL is professional malpractice for a supposedly “fair and balanced” news network.
Georgia called for Trump, but not by Fox News.
And CNN has redeclared VA.
Fox’s election coverage has been awful. It’s sad, really.
Excellent coverage at Steve Bannon’s WarRoom.
Very …suspicious… that the Philadelphia Election Commissioner has ordered a pause in the city’s vote counting. Evidently the Philly machine is waiting for rural counties’ numbers to be posted so they have a better idea of how many ballots they need to ‘find’.
IF the Election commissioners in the rural counties were smart, they’d pause vote counting until Philly resumed.
In VA, Trump appears to be ahead in actual votes, but all the “experts” seem to believe the late arriving mail-in ballots will tip the scales. I saw that the Governor of Arizona tweeted out that they haven’t even started counting the votes cast today, so how can anyone say how AZ has voted yet?
It’s as bad as I thought it would be. Early calls for Biden, foot dragging on calling states for Trump. Makes me think the media is trying to create the conditions under which Biden can declare himself the winner and try to claim some kind of moral high ground for whatever recount/court challenge/contested election fight in the House might be coming.
AP calls Minnesota for Trump.
damnit
At least Iowa went for Trump
God the Father, have mercy on us
God the Holy Spirit, have mercy on us
God the Son, have mercy on us
Holy Mary, Mother of God, intercede for our prayers: Donald Trump’s protection and re-election
Saints Peter and Paul the Apostles, Patron Saints of Pennsylvania, please pray for Donald Trump
Our Lady Gate of Heaven, Patron Saint of Michigan, please pray for Donald Trump
Our Lady of the Americas, Patron Saint of Wisconsin, please pray for Donald Trump
Our Lady of the Highways, Patron Saint of Arizona, please pray for Donald Trump
Our Lady of Las Vegas, Patron Saint of Nevada, please pray for Donald Trump
St. Jude Patron Saint of Lost Causes, please pray for Donald Trump
St. Thomas Moore, Patron Saint of Politicians, please pray for Donald Trump
Immaculate Conception, Patron Saint of the US, please pray for Donald Trump
All of the Saints, please pray for Donald Trump
All holy angels, please pray for Donald Trump
All holy men and women, please pray for Donald Trump
All martyrs, please pray for Donald Trump
Amen to Capt Thai Tea’s Litany.
I will admit that MN looks grim, contrary to my repeated predictions. Wouldn’t be surprised if a turnaround somehow does happen, but looks more likely that the streak continues.
But I still don’t see how Biden wins. Georgia and North Carolina are solid enough that they would have been called if they were showing a Biden lead instead. Wisconsin and Michigan are very strong. With those 4 states plus all called (and Alaska, since that’s pretty certain) that’s over 270 for President Trump, even without Pennsylvania or Nevada.
From Maria’s lips to God’s ears.
All of Minnesota except Hennepin and Ramsey counties seem to be going red. Good grief, even Colin Peterson lost, and he’s been in there forever! Maybe MN got called too soon as well?
Baris’s lips. Autocorrect is a Chinese plot to make us all crazy.
On Georgia there’s a rumor going around that shenanigans are afoot. Maybe, or might be conservative pessimism.
Pennsylvania looks pretty solidly Trump, which puts the only Biden path to victory to win two of Georgia, North Carolina Wisconsin and Michigan. That’s assuming of course that Arizona goes to Biden which is a bit uncertain considering that they apparently only just started reporting results from today (as opposed to early voting). Nevada doesn’t matter.
But Michigan is pretty solid Trump and I can’t realistically see Georgia going to Biden (even though I suppose it is numerically possible) Wisconsin isn’t looking bad at all either. So a Biden win would be very hard indeed at this point.
But it looks like we will not be allowed to say this since “there are still votes to be counted!” On Twitter you literally aren’t allowed to say this, at least not without being labeled as spreading inaccurate information (as even has happened to the president). Though of course it is impossible to believe that if Biden were up by as much as Trump was in enough states to get to 270 there would not be calls for Trump to concede.
I think the Democrats know that they lost but they intend to drag this out as long as possible purely to stir up conflict that they can use to incite riots.