From The Institute For the Study of War:
Mason Clark, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Karolina Hird
April 7, 5:15 pm ET
Russian proxy forces claimed to have captured central Mariupol on April 7, but Ukrainian forces retain positions in the southwest of the city. ISW cannot independently confirm this proxy claim, but we have not observed confirmed reports of fighting in central Mariupol since April 2.[1] Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Mariupol in the coming days.
Russian forces are cohering combat power for an intended major offensive in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the coming days. Ukrainian civil and military officials continued to warn local residents to evacuate prior to a likely Russian offensive. Russian forces will likely attempt to regroup and redeploy units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine to support an offensive, but these units are unlikely to enable a Russian breakthrough. Russian forces along the Izyum-Slovyansk axis did not make any territorial gains in the last 24 hours. Russian forces are unlikely to successfully capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts if Russian forces in Izyum are unable to encircle Ukrainian forces on the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces claim to have successfully captured central Mariupol, but Ukrainian forces retain control of the port southwest of the city. Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Mariupol in the coming days.
- Russian forces are setting conditions for a major offensive in eastern Ukraine in the coming days, but damaged units redeployed from northeastern Ukraine are unlikely to enable a successful Russian breakthrough.
- Ukrainian forces repelled continuing Russian attacks from Izyum southeast toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove.
- Russian and Belarusian forces are conducting “demonstrative actions” to fix Ukrainian forces around Kyiv in place. However, these units are highly unlikely to launch new offensive operations, and Ukrainian units around Kyiv can likely safely redeploy to eastern Ukraine.
- Western sanctions are likely successfully disrupting Russia’s military-industrial base.
Russian efforts to generate replacement forces and produce new military equipment continue to face challenges. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 7 that the Russian military began recruiting conscripts who have been discharged from military service since 2012 and is summoning them for a special three-month training period before deployment to active units.[2] The General Staff additionally reported that Russian units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine are currently residing in tent camps and face declining morale.[3] Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 7 that Russian military enterprises are unable to fulfill military orders due to inflation and supply chain issues, which it attributed to the effects of western sanctions.[4] The GUR claimed it intercepted a Kremlin report on the inability of several companies to complete state contracts and discontent over the Russian Ministry of Defense forcing companies to produce orders at a loss.
Go here to read the rest. The long expected Russian counter-offensive should come just after Easter. If the Ukrainians are able to contain and reverse that, the Russians can begin packing up and heading home. Putin has said that the Day of Victory, May 9, will be the end date of this War. I fear that he may begin the counter offensive by using chemical/biological weapons and/or tactical nukes. Let us all pray for an Easter miracle that this does not occur.
The fall of Mariupol keeps getting postponed.
Russian military units are summoning “..conscripts discharged from military service since 2012 for a special 3-month training period before deployment?” If this is true, then there could be a three-month delay, until sometime in mid-summee, before Russia attempts another invasion thrust. If that is so. the West needs to seriously arm up the Ukrainians and US should also supply F-15’s or the updated F-16’s. There is no reason for the Biden Administration to continue to be intimidated by further Russian threats and continuous barbarism against civilians. Putin allegedly attended a funeral today and very publicly had the nuclear suitcase beside him. An obvious attempt to intimidate the Harvard Debating Society dithering about in the Biden administration.
Some very interesting intercepted unencrypted phone conversations from Russian soldiers in the area of Mariupol, apparently talking to family members back in Russia. One soldier mentions that they have no food or supplies and have to forage for anything to eat. Another soldier mentions that two groups of mercenaries, one from South Ossetia and another from nearby Abkhazia, showed up to be deployed, observed the lethality of the fighting, and literally turned and left and went home, he tells his girlfriend. More sinister however is that he says large numbers of troops from the Russian Far East Division have arrived and are being staged. These are likely Siberians and based on their reputation for fighting in World War II (mentioned by Cornelius Ryan in accounts of the WW2 siege of Berlin in his account, “The Last Battle”) are very tough, hardy fighters, and used to extreme conditions. If so, this is a serious challenge.
are very tough, hardy fighters, and used to extreme conditions. If so, this is a serious challenge.
Perhaps so. If I’m not mistaken, about 80% of Siberia’s population lives in a ribbon which runs along the borders of China, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan. I think the range of latitudes runs from about New York City to Edmonton, Alberta and those concentrated at the highest latitudes are in the midsection of Russia around Kazakhstan, not in the Far East. I suppose the masses of swamp and mosquito infestations make make for a climatic extreme as well…