Friday, March 29, AD 2024 5:27am

Ukraine War Analysis-October 3, 2022- Risk of Nuclear War Edition

 

From The Institute For The Study of War:

Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, Riley Bailey, Katherine Lawlor, and Frederick W. Kagan

October 3, 9 pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours. Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian troops made significant breakthroughs in northern Kherson Oblast between October 2 and 3.[1] Geolocated footage corroborates Russian claims that Ukrainian troops are continuing to push east of Lyman and may have broken through the Luhansk Oblast border in the direction of Kreminna.[2] As ISW has previously reported, the Russian groupings in northern Kherson Oblast and on the Lyman front were largely comprised of units that had been regarded as among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces before the war.[3] Elements of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division of the 20th Combined Arms Army reportedly withdrew from Lyman to rear positions near Kreminna before October 2.[4] Russian sources previously reported that elements of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV), especially the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, are active in Kherson Oblast.[5] Both the 144th Motorized Rifle Division and the 76th Guards Air Assault Division were previously lauded as some of Russia’s most elite forces, and their apparent failures to hold territory against major Ukrainian counter-offensive actions is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that even the most elite Russian military forces are becoming increasingly degraded as the war continues. This phenomenon was also visible in the collapse of the 4th Tank Division of the 1st Guards Tank Army earlier in the Kharkiv counter-offensive.[6]

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be continuing efforts to redirect blame for recent Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast. Russian outlet РБК (RBK), citing sources within the Russian regime, reported on October 3 that Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov has replaced Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlev as commander of the Western Military District (WMD).[7] As ISW previously assessed, WMD units have been largely operating in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast over the last few months but without a clear commander. Zhuravlev has not been seen for some time, and Putin cycled through two commanders of the “western grouping of forces” in two weeks. Putin may be attempting to redirect the growing anger for Russian losses in Kharkiv Oblast and Lyman by assigning a new face prominently to the WMD.[8] This announcement may also be an effort to shield Colonel General Alexander Lapin, commander of the Central Military District (CMD), from widespread criticism for recent Russian failures around Lyman.[9] Putin may seek to shift the blame for future Russian losses in Kharkiv and possibly Luhansk Oblasts to Berdnikov. Criticism of Lapin in recent days has served as a catalyst for wider breakdown within the Russian nationalist information space, and Berdnikov’s appointment may be intended to distract and redirect that growing dissatisfaction.

Russian officials released Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) director Ihor Murashov from detention and are likely continuing to undermine Ukrainian control of the plant. Energoatom reported that the Russian military detained Director General of the ZNPP Ihor Murashov on September 30 and released him into Ukrainian-controlled territory on October 3 following talks with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Raphael Grossi.[10] Russian officials will likely not allow Murashov to return to his position at the ZNPP. Russian officials will likely attempt to use their physical removal of Murashov to assert further control over the nuclear power plant.

Key Takeaways

  • Ukrainian forces have made substantial gains around Lyman and in northern Kherson Oblast over the last 24 hours. The Russian units defeated on these fronts were previously considered to be among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin may use the appointment of Lieutenant-General Roman Berdnikov to the command of the Western Military District to redirect blame for recent or future Russian military failures in Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian officials released the director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, whom they had illegally detained, and are likely continuing to undermine Ukrainian control of the plant.
  • Ukrainian forces made advances on the Oskil River-Kreminna line towards the Luhansk oblast border.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin is introducing punitive measures to target the Russian bureaucratic institutions responsible for the execution of partial mobilization.
  • Russian officials acknowledged that the Kremlin intends to invade, occupy, and illegally annex additional Ukrainian territory in the south and east and may alter the claimed borders of its occupied territories.
  • The Russian State Duma approved the Kremlin’s illegal accession treaties on October 3 and laid out the administrative timeline for integrating illegally annexed Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation.

Go here to read the rest.  Some indications that Putin is getting ready to use tactical nuclear weapons to retrieve his losing hand in Ukraine.  This would be a good time to be praying that Putin’s generals are a good deal saner than he appears to be at the present time.  I am inclined to think that this is a bluff, but I recall that the Cuban Missile Crisis is sixty years in the rear view mirror this month.  Many times in that stand off it wouldn’t have taken much of a miscalculation  on either side to have had the world burn.  Kennedy and Khrushchev were men with great flaws, but both were also serious leaders who knew when to step back from the brink.  In this looming crisis both nations are governed by men of doubtful mental stability and a track record of ignoring the possible consequences of their actions.

My conclusion on the question of Ukraine is still that Putin must be stopped.  However, too many officials here and abroad seem far too blase about the risk of nuclear war.  This is a huge risk and I fear too many of our leaders simply have no hint of just how huge the risk is.

A  good prayer at this dangerous hour would be the Saint Michael Prayer.  At 16:18:

 

 

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DJH
DJH
Tuesday, October 4, AD 2022 4:57am

The same folks who censor articles on trans surgeries (child mutilation) and vaccine injuries are the same folks who publish articles on the desirability of nuclear war.
.

T. Shaw
T. Shaw
Tuesday, October 4, AD 2022 5:34am

I guess it all is classified and the FBI took it from Trump.

Evidently, from conversations I have had with long time AF officers, all war gaming of so-called limited nuclear exchanges resulted in WWIII and massive exchanges.

The clowns [it’s not Chinese Joe] running the multi-trillion-dollar dumpster fire in DC need to be stopped.

Philip Nachazel
Philip Nachazel
Tuesday, October 4, AD 2022 7:10am

Our strategic defense operations can’t be bothered with this petty possibility of nuclear war. They are deeply entrenched with gender ideology and the next rounds of sensitivity training to be introduced to the branches of defense.

Clowns indeed.

Dale Price
Dale Price
Tuesday, October 4, AD 2022 11:14am

“Some indications that Putin is getting ready to use tactical nuclear weapons to retrieve his losing hand in Ukraine.”

This is not asked with a dismissive tone:

Where have you seen that?

Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus
Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus
Tuesday, October 4, AD 2022 4:22pm

For those who do not know what the Belgorod and the Poseidon-6 are, watch the following YouTube videos and subscribe to the YouTube Sub Brief channel. Aaron Amick, a former submarine sonar technician, is an old salty dog like me.

https://youtu.be/oS0F9Ae5cig

https://youtu.be/45yXkHdYkLU

https://youtu.be/E3emc70Pjv0

https://youtu.be/QtE7ciLS-24

CAG
CAG
Tuesday, October 4, AD 2022 7:21pm

Any chance the Belgorod can get through the Bosporus Strait undetected?

Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus
Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus
Wednesday, October 5, AD 2022 5:13am

I agree with Donald. I don’t even think a Belgorod could pass Gibraltar into the Med without being detected. However, the Poseidon-6 nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed torpedo traveling slowly may be able to pass into the Med and then through the Bosporus Strait undetected, but is its navigational software that sophisticated? Furthermore, any detonation near a Ukrainian port would be suicidal for any Russian vessels in the Black Sea, and for Russian-held Crimea. The weapon in my opinion is too devastating to be anything but suicidal. Its detonation would result in a reprisal that would destroy Putin’s empire.

Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus
Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus
Wednesday, October 5, AD 2022 11:30am

Update: The Belgorod has been located in the Arctic. Speculation exists that a test of the Poseidon-6 may be forthcoming.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/10/new-images-reveal-russias-missing-submarine-belgorod-in-arctic/

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