Thursday, March 28, AD 2024 12:10pm

Why Polls This Year Are Crap: A Continuing Saga

Robert Barnes explains how bad the polls are.  As well as being an attorney, Barnes has wagered on elections for decades.  He has never been wrong on a presidential election.  In 2016 he won 500k betting on Trump.  He puts his money where his mouth is.  Ignore the polls and focus on the election fundamentals.

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George Haberberger
George Haberberger
Friday, October 16, AD 2020 4:33pm

I agree that Trump voters are far more enthusiastic than Biden voters. The problem is that enthusiastic votes don’t count any more than unenthusiastic votes. It just matters which there are more of and in addition to unenthusiastic Biden voters there are the enthusiastic anti-Trump voters.

George Haberberger
George Haberberger
Friday, October 16, AD 2020 4:44pm

I hope you’re right but I fear the anti-Trump vote is significant. That’s something that didn’t have these numbers in 2016 because they didn’t think he would win anyway.

Rudolph Harrier
Rudolph Harrier
Friday, October 16, AD 2020 4:50pm

But do they think that he can win this year?

From what I can see, most on the left have made the mistake of believing their own hype. Biden up by double digits! Texas now firmly blue!

In fact, the only way that they allow that the election could go to President Trump is by hacking. But if you seriously believe that the election is hacked and rigged, are you going to vote in it?

Art Deco
Art Deco
Friday, October 16, AD 2020 6:04pm

I have little doubt that polling is quite unreliable and they’re massaging convenience samples. Not sure it’s bad enough to explain the RCP distance.

I hear every day what partisan Democrats are thinking. We’re suffering right now due to the secular decay of the political culture at the elite level and the street level. The worst offenders in our circle are two individuals (one retired and one not) employed in education their entire adult lives. One was born in 1949 and the other in 1978. They aren’t fit to shine my uncle’s shoes.

Struggling Catholic
Struggling Catholic
Friday, October 16, AD 2020 6:16pm

The question: how many MORE people hate Trump as much as the media hates Trump? The same people I know who hated Trump in 2016 hate him now. The same people I know who voted for him (either reluctantly or enthusiastically) can’t wait to vote for him again. And I think those who are positively excited about voting are more likely to influence someone on the fence. It’s one thing to say, “Trump’s my guy and here are his accomplishments and why you should vote for him” and quite another to convince someone who doesn’t hate Trump that they should. As we discovered in 2012, “I’m not Obama” wasn’t enough to carry the election for Romney. And Romney, bland and uninspiring as he was, was at least able to stay up past 9 am.

I would like to believe that the American people are still an optimistic bunch. What is the Dem message besides “If Trump wins, you’ll all die of covid and the white supremacists will take over! Vote for Biden!”

David WS
David WS
Friday, October 16, AD 2020 6:23pm

Voting must have a causal push-pull impetus, and pull matters more:
Many are pushed from Biden and pulled to Trump.
Some are pushed from Trump but Few pulled to Biden.
Enthusiasm matters.

And as Yogi Berra might say:
2. “Polls are only what polls poll.”
“While pollsters poll what pollsters poll.”

Struggling Catholic
Struggling Catholic
Friday, October 16, AD 2020 6:59pm

I also think the phenomenon of the shy Trump voter is very real. I got a rock lobbed at my window when I put up a sign for Gov. Walker during his recall election. It would be suicidal to put up a Trump sign here. Nor would I talk to a pollster – I don’t answer calls from numbers I don’t recognize and I am not going to tell a stranger how I am voting.
A black man, a popular neighborhood character who was outspokenly pro-Trump, was murdered in Milwaukee several months ago. So was that poor man in Portland. Other Trump voters fear losing their jobs or access to their grandchildren (I know of a case where that happened.) People who are browbeaten for their support of Trump will not change their minds – not when they are alone with their ballots. Watch the #walkaway videos on YouTube (while you still can) and you will also see that many Dems have had their eyes opened.

There might not be enough shy Trump voters in blue cities or states to flip those states red, but they can certainly run up the popular vote totals. Do I think Trump has a chance in NY or California? No, but if vote totals are much closer than they were in 2016, they will surely give the Dems a fright.

Struggling Catholic
Struggling Catholic
Friday, October 16, AD 2020 7:19pm

Hey, we’ve got PA! The Amish are out in force for Trump! How can he lose?

https://www.redstate.com/mike_miller/2020/09/21/amish-hold-horse-buggy-trump-parade-%E2%80%94-with-american-flags-and-cows-and-stuff-thrown-in-for-good-measure/

Seriously, did the Amish bother to vote in 2016? if not, those horse-and-buggy Trump parades might be more significant than I thought at first. They don’t read his tweets or watch the network news, but, like the Orthodox Jews, they recognize what candidate will let them to worship in peace.

Michael Dowd
Michael Dowd
Saturday, October 17, AD 2020 7:41am

There are a lot more yard sighs for Trump than Biden. In 2016 Hillary was ahead of Trump.

I believe Trump will win in 2020.

Rudolph Harrier
Rudolph Harrier
Saturday, October 17, AD 2020 10:15am

Around here the yard sign situation is strange. Before two weeks ago there were no Biden signs, even though there even still some Bernie and even Hillary signs. There have been Trump signs for months, of course. Then one day two weeks ago there suddenly were Biden signs on nearly every single lawn with democrat signs. It literally happened overnight. Still not sure if there are more Biden signs than Trump signs, since there are plenty of Trump signs, but I can no longer say that there are no Biden signs.

Struggling Catholic
Struggling Catholic
Sunday, October 18, AD 2020 9:14am

While I don’t put much stock in yard sign counts, and I bear in mine that an anti-Trump voter is as passionate as a Trump voter, I keep hearing that Trump’s GOTV game on the ground is very good this year, while the Dems barely have one. They are apparently focused on big ad buys in the swing states.

That’s where I think the enthusiasm gap might make a big difference. A Trump supporter comes home from a rally in MI or WI all fired up and ready to go door knocking for his candidate. There is a guy in PA who apparently is doing a wonderful job talking to and registering first time voters to vote for Trump.

I don’t hear of or read of anti-Trump libs doing anything like that. They are not door knocking, they are not attempting to persuade people, because the left has forgotten how to persuade. They just know how to bully and intimidate. And they think it’s so obvious that “everyone” knows Trump is awful that they don’t have to get out there and knock on doors – insulting people online is enough.
That’s how I think those massive Trump rallies might have an impact – those attendees are not just going home happy, they are getting involved in the campaign.

Charles E. Fromage
Charles E. Fromage
Sunday, October 18, AD 2020 10:21am

I always lie to pollsters. I feel its my civic duty. Biased and corrupt media want to exploit social trust for their own selfish political ends.

Ernst Schreiber
Ernst Schreiber
Sunday, October 18, AD 2020 11:14am

Now overlay that map with a map of every county that has a college or university.

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