From The Institute For The Study of War:
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 1
Riley Bailey, Madison Williams, Yekaterina Klepanchuk, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 1, 9:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against Ukraine by claiming that NATO is preparing to attack Belarus. Lukashenko blamed Ukraine and NATO for a growing number of provocations near the Belarus-Ukrainian border and stated that Ukraine is trying to drag NATO forces into the war.[1] Lukashenko stated that Belarusian officials managed to deter a potential adversary from using military force against Belarus and that NATO is building up forces and intensifying combat training in neighboring countries.[2] The Belarusian Minister of Defense Viktor Khrenin stated that there is no direct preparation for war and that Belarus will only defend its territory.[3] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative Vadym Skibitsky reported that there are no signs of the formation of a strike group on Belarusian territory.[4] Lukashenko and Khrenin likely made the comments to bolster what ISW has previously assessed as an ongoing information operation aimed at fixing Ukrainian forces on the border with Belarus in response to the threat of Belarus entering the war.[5] Lukashenko and Khrenin also likely focused the information operation on supposed NATO aggression and provocative activities along the Belarusian border to suggest that the Belarusian military needs to remain in Belarus to defend against potential NATO aggression, and thus set informational conditions for resisting Russian pressure to enter the war in Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that Belarusian entry into the Russian war on Ukraine is extremely unlikely.
Key Takeaways
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against Ukraine.
- Russian forces continued efforts to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces continued to make incremental gains around Bakhmut and to conduct offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area.
- Russian forces continued to conduct defensive measures and move personnel on the east bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian military movements in Zaporizhia Oblast may suggest that Russian forces cannot defend critical areas amidst increasing Ukrainian strikes.
- Russian forces are holding reserves in Crimea to support defensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast and on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
- The Kremlin’s financial strain continues to feed domestic unrest.
- Evidence persists regarding the continuation of partial mobilization in the face of low morale and high desertion rates amongst Russian troops.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continued attempts to bolster the Wagner Group’s reputation.
- Russian occupation officials continued efforts to integrate occupied territories into the Russian financial and legal spheres.
- Russian forces continued to exploit Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure in support of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Go here to read the rest. We have entered into another of the War’s Groundhog Day periods when little seems to be changing. When change does occur in this War it occurs rapidly, followed by another period of stasis.
Hurry up and wait applies as much to the military in war as it does in peace, apparently.
Lukashenko is nothing more than a Russian toadie. The amazing thing is that there is so little internal opposition to his rule despite his demonstrated incompetence.
The amazing thing is that there is so little internal opposition to his rule despite his demonstrated incompetence.
Per capita product in White Russia has tripled since he took office in 1995. It’s a middle income country, rather like the more affluent Latin American states; the skew in the income distribution is on the low side for Europe, with about 20% of personal income sluiced to the most affluent decile of the population (it’s 30% in great Russia). The employment-to-population ratio is currently about 0.60, which is on a par with that in the affluent countries; the unemployment rate is at this time about 4%, which is reasonable. Life expectancy at birth, while unspectacular at 74.2 years, has gone up by 5.8 years. The annual homicide rate at 2.4 per 100,000 is high for western Europe but normal for an American suburb; the rate has declined by 75% since he took office. Military expenditure as a share of gdp is about normal for a country with a regional range of action – about 1.25% of gdp. Public sector debt stock is currently 33% of GDP, which is reasonable; current public sector deficits are running at 0.3% of gdp.
The downside is the inflation rate, which is about 15% per year right now. While public sector debt is reasonable, there’s been a considerable run up in this figure since 1995, when it was 17%. What’s disconcerting is the run up if external debt (from 12% of GNI in 1995 to 75% today) and the balance of payments deficit (at 2.7% of gdp). The country is also suffering from a severe fertility deficit and that is not improving; the total fertility rate is now 1.38 children per woman per lifetime. Alas, that’s normal for eastern and southern Europe.
This really is not what incompetence looks like.
Note that per capita product has increased 3.27-fold in real terms.
Art:
Perhaps he’s the rare autocrat content to take his cut, run things from the top and leave his people largely alone. I imagine he has cultivated (and been cultivated by) his more Western neighbors and has decided not to help Putin more than he has to. That probably keeps him in good with the Belarus, even if it drives Pooty potty.. For a tyrant, prosperity can cover a multitude of sins.
I imagine opposition to Lukashenko might increase dramatically were he to succumb to the pressure of taking a more active role in the war.
I imagine he has cultivated (and been cultivated by) his more Western neighbors and has decided not to help Putin more than he has to.
Whether he’s been cultivated or not, it’s a reasonable wager he knows a sh!t sandwich when he smells one.