From The Institute For The Study of War:
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Mason Clark
June 10, 4:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for more-sophisticated Western-provided weapons systems amid reports of growing Russian artillery superiority. Several Western media outlets reported in the last 48 hours that Ukrainian military and government officials are increasingly highlighting the fact that Ukrainian troops are trapped in an “artillery war” on critical frontlines and are at a distinct disadvantage in terms of artillery systems.[1] Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated that Russian troops possess 10 to 15 artillery pieces to every one Ukrainian artillery piece and that Ukrainian forces have almost completely exhausted their artillery ammunition.[2] Considering the current prevalence of protracted positional battles, especially in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, Ukrainian forces urgently need fresh supplies of artillery systems. As Ukrainian forces use the last of their stocks of Soviet-era weapon systems and munitions, they will require consistent Western support to transition to new supply chains of ammunition and key artillery systems. Effective artillery will be increasingly decisive in the largely static fighting in eastern Ukraine.
Russian military authorities continue to struggle with force generation and are facing the consequences of aggressive forced mobilization efforts. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) claimed they captured a new group of Russian prisoners of war who reportedly were recruited through a private military company and told they were going to be providing security services but were instead sent to the frontline in Luhansk.[3] The Ukrainian General Staff similarly reported that units comprised of forcibly mobilized personnel are refusing to participate in combat in the Donbas due to high losses.[4] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) cited intercepted phone calls and claimed that Russian soldiers are refusing to fight and are being threatened with prosecution—despite their lack of equipment and weapons within their units.[5] Such reports are consistent with previous reports that Russian forced mobilization efforts are self-destructive and may result in mounting discontent and declining morale and discipline.[6]
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian officials are increasing the urgency of their requests for Western weapons systems due to Russia’s artillery superiority.
- Russian forces are continuing ground assaults within Severodonetsk but have yet to secure full control of the city as of June 10.
- Russian forces are preparing to renew offensive operations toward Slovyansk and made minor gains to the north of the city.
- Russian forces are continuing efforts to cut the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and conducting assaults on settlements near the highway.
- Russian troops reportedly took control of the Kinburn Spit in the northern Black Sea, which will allow them to exert further control of the Black Sea coast.
Go here to read the rest. The Ukrainians have often exaggerated the need for more of everything from the West. However, this feels different. You can only ask troops to hold ground so long when the artillery advantage is against you. The mistake the Ukrainians appear to be making is attempting to defend areas where the Russians have massed artillery. The Ukrainians should be hitting the Russians where that advantage does not exist.
“The mistake the Ukrainians appear to be making is attempting to defend areas where the Russians have massed artillery. The Ukrainians should be hitting the Russians where that advantage does not exist.”
If you’re being invaded, you kinda have to defend where they’re attacking. The alternative is ceding the territory without a fight, and in this case, that means the entire Donbas (The Russians will just keep using their artillery in this way until they are stopped). Remember the discussion we had the other day about Finland? They ended up ceding an entire island chain because Russia concentrated a massive amount of artillery fire in one location, and Finland couldn’t/didn’t defend against it. Ukraine has tried counterattacking in Kharkiv and Kherson and had initial, limited success, but the Russians seem to be well dug in and those counter attacks haven’t drawn artillery away from Severodonetsk.
The article says the Ukrainians are running out of old Soviet artillery systems and ammunition. Since Biden achieves his goals simply by stating to the press that he’s sending artillery, he doesn’t seem to be in a big hurry to actually follow through. Every one of Biden’s goals are political, after all. He releases oil from our strategic reserves because the only strategies he has are political strategies. He wants to look good to appease the voters. National defense isn’t a concern.
If you’re being invaded, you kinda have to defend where they’re attacking.
Not at all. As in the American Revolution let the Russians occupy the real estate they wish while Ukrainian partisans tear up supply lines and Ukrainian regular forces attack elsewhere. Never let the enemy dictate your strategy.
Ukrainian partisans tear up supply lines and Ukrainian regular forces attack elsewhere.
Most of the folks in the Donbas wouldn’t mind at all being part of Russia. Ukrainian partisans might find friendly faces hard to come by. Also, possession is 9/10 of the law. If the Ukrainians give up the Luhansk, they might find it impossible to get it back again. They’ve survived this far by making Russia pay a high price for every inch of territory they acquire. If Ukraine loses Severodonetsk, they lose Luhansk Oblast. The Russians know that and that’s why they abandoned their Kiev campaign and moved that hardware east. Losing Maripol also freed up some armor. The truth is, the Russians have a bunch or artillery that they don’t need to defend any occupied territory. If Ukraine doesn’t engage it in Luhansk, they’ll have to eventually somewhere.
Never let the enemy dictate your strategy.
This is true, but more easily applied to offense than defense.
Most of the folks in the Donbas wouldn’t mind at all being part of Russia.
Not in the area currently being fought over. This has been going on since 2014 and the pro-Russian population long ago largely departed for the Russian controlled portion.
Also, possession is 9/10 of the law. If the Ukrainians give up the Luhansk, they might find it impossible to get it back again.
“If Ukraine doesn’t engage it in Luhansk, they’ll have to eventually somewhere.”
At a time and place of the Ukrainians’ choosing and not that of the Russians’ choosing.
In war there is no law. The rule of areas will be determined on the battlefields.
I think that Ukraine believes the best place to engage the enemy’s armor is in urban environments, where movement is restricted, range is irrelevant, and, therefore, the odds are more even. If so, then Severodonetsk may indeed be the time and place of their choosing. There’s a whole lot of flat farmland west of town where the Russians will have the advantage, from what I understand. I admit, about Ukraine I know only what I read in this ISW site you post here. My entire body of international experience consists of two trips to Canada, and I am Loathe to return. 🙂
Most of the folks in the Donbas wouldn’t mind at all being part of Russia.
Sez who? Self-identified ‘great Russians’ were never a majority in the Donetsk or Luhansk region. The constituency for merger with Russia has in recent years accounted for about 1/4 of those who favor a Russophile orientation in foreign policy. An, in the last eight years, the segments of Donetsk and Luhansk Russia seized in 2014 were turned over to local brigands.
Ukraine has tried counterattacking in Kharkiv and Kherson
Russian forces are not holding Kharkiv.
Sez who?
Sez [sic] the folks who live there. You can see the interviews, they are recorded. Although, the ones I’ve seen were recorded before the Russians started forced conscription. I wouldn’t be surprised if sentiments have changed somewhat.
Russian forces are not holding Kharkiv
No, but the Ukrainians have been trying to push north to the international border and northeast to cut off supply and comm lines to Izium with no success.
Sez [sic] the folks who live there.
There have been no political parties in the Ukraine of any significance advocating merger with Russia. That you can cherry-pick someone who favors x, y, or z in a country with 40 million people in it is of scant significance.
There have been no political parties in the Ukraine of any significance advocating merger with Russia.
Given the choice between artillery fire or incorporation, many voiced that they were “… part of Russia before, and we all got along …” It’s not hard to see the motivation.
That you can cherry-pick someone who favors x, y, or z in a country with 40 million people in it is of scant significance.
True that, media being what it is. But still, when people start dying and cities are being reduced to rubble … Also, as Don mentioned earlier, pro-Russian militia has been in charge over a bunch of the Donbas and the entire Crimean peninsula since 2014. The people who didn’t like that situation probably left a while ago. I’d wager that the only political parties allowed to exist in the occupied territories these days are pro-unification.
Given the choice between artillery fire or incorporation, many voiced that they were “… part of Russia before, and we all got along …” It’s not hard to see the motivation.
They’re not ‘getting along’ because it’s been Russian government policy for the last 8 years that they not get along.
Also, as Don mentioned earlier, pro-Russian militia has been in charge over a bunch of the Donbas and the entire Crimean peninsula since 2014.
No Russia annexed the Crimea outright, stuffing the ballot boxes in a referendum.
I guess I’m not understanding your point. Art. Are you suggesting the Russians living in eastern Ukraine and Crimea would rather be living under Ukrainian rule?
I guess I’m not understanding your point. Art. Are you suggesting the Russians living in eastern Ukraine and Crimea would rather be living under Ukrainian rule?
Self-identified great Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk were not in 2012 a majority in those regions. The only part of the country larger than a municipality where they were was the Crimea. (V. Putin wasn’t confident the ethnic Russians there were on board in sufficient numbers to him swiping the territory, so he stuffed the ballot boxes).
Oh, I don’t disagree with you about that, but you have to admit a lot has changed there since 2012. If you were in those areas and you wanted to live in Ukraine, chances are you moved there by now.