From The Institute For the Study of War:
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 12, 4:00 pm EST
Russian forces secured limited advances east of Kyiv and north from Crimea on March 12 but continue to face logistical challenges, mounting casualties, and sustained Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. Russian forces made limited advances around Chernihiv and toward Kyiv’s eastern outskirts after pausing for several days. Continued Ukrainian counterattacks and successful operations by Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces continue to threaten Russia’s long line of communication in northeastern Ukraine. Russian forces captured unspecified “eastern outskirts” of Mariupol on March 12 and continue to shell the city in a likely effort to force it to capitulate.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations northwest of Kyiv for the second day in a row.
- Russian forces resumed limited attacks toward northeastern Kyiv and renewed efforts to fully encircle Chernihiv.
- Ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in northeastern Ukraine are likely forcing Russia to redeploy forces away from offensive operations toward Kyiv to consolidate its long line of communication.
- Russian forces made limited territorial gains in eastern Mariupol and continued to shell the city.
- The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian forces conducted a new advance northeast from Kherson along the western bank of the Dnipro.
- The Ukrainian military claimed to have damaged or destroyed 31 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) as of March 11.
- The Kremlin likely seeks to deter continuing Western military aid shipments to Ukraine, threatening that Russia will view Western military aid shipments to Ukraine as legitimate military targets on March 12.
Go here to read the rest. The war for now is in stasis. It is quite possible that Putin has now put in all military force at his disposal, absent calling up reserves. Calling for 16,000 Syrians and attempting to coerce into the War Belarus troops makes no sense otherwise. If this is the case, Putin has lost his war.
“…Putin has lost his war.”
Should such an unexpected event happen, might that not tend to dissuade the Chinese from making a similar mistake with Taiwan? Would Putin’s lost gamble then tend to eventually stabilize things? Weirdly possible, however unlikely.
I think yes. The Chinese have been shocked at how swiftly the West has thrown the Russian economy into the Outer Darkness.
Very interesting commentary.
I did not know that Kiev Is such a large, sprawling city, that the Russians will have to establish a 50-mile perimeter, something that seems impossible, given the very large casualty numbers they’ve clearly taken in terms of personnel and equipment. As this commentator states, If they’ve lost 3 high level field generals, they e lost a lot more than their admitted “500 killed” (other estimates are over 9000 not counting wounded or MIA).
“Marshal Binkov” experts @YouTube in past YouTube videos, long before this war, have asserted that the two main Russian armament factories at Tula and Rostenberg, which even in good times are beset by incompetence, graft, and inefficiency, cannot possibly resupply the large numbers of already spent munitions for armored vehicles nor the required missiles for mechanized field artillery. That is, even if they can efficiently move them to the front.
Which also brings into question the wasteful and inefficient (to say nothing of wanton) shelling and missile attacks on civilian population areas that seem to have no military value. It seems analogous to Goering’s ridiculous decision in Sept., 1940 to abandon attacking air fields, naval assets, and radar centers of the British RAF and instead focus on the virtually useless bombing of civilian population centers, which only resulted in the steeling of the resolve of the populace (just as now in Ukraine) and massive losses of aircraft, crews, and equipment, from which the Luftwaffe never really recovered.
We shall see.
I actually just used one of the geometry things from high school– Pie Are Square….
A city where you can drive for about 15 miles without leaving would need, at the most efficient theoretical size, a 50 mile parameter.
For a size comparison, Des Moines might be able to fit inside of a 50 mile parameter. Looking at the satellite image, Kiev looks denser, but otherwise fairly comparable.
“If this is the case, Putin has lost his war.“
The one possible downside to this is the Biden Administration being able to illicitly take credit for this. Never mind the fact Biden’s ostensible weakness and cognitive decline was a major factor in Putin deciding to go ahead with this in the first place.
Mark Felton did a video on Putin “Vladimir Putin – KGB Agent”
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2_EFJLWA6o
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He also did a Ukraine special “Could Putin Attack Britain – Ukraine War Special”
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNRUP-T01Ig
Thank you, GregB:
I too am a Mark Felton fan, but I hadn’t been aware of this video by him on Putin (he usually specializes in WWII and post-war history as you know).