Pollster Richard Baris and Attorney and Election Expert Robert Barnes explain why the election fundamentals paint a completely different presidential election picture from the polls. Republicans have out registered the Democrats in new voters in the battleground states. The Gallup Poll indicates that 56 percent of the voters believe they are better off now than they were four years ago, a question that is never wrong on predicting presidential elections. Many polls indicate that most voters believe that their neighbors will vote for Trump and also believe there is a substantial hidden Trump vote. Polls have a very hard time reaching white men without college degrees who live in rural areas, a key Trump constituency. Many polls indicate that notwithstanding how they intend to vote, most voters believe that Trump will win. I would add the lack of enthusiasm for Biden and the rampant enthusiasm for Trump.
There are two differences I see this time over 2016. First, the Democrats will not allow Biden to make the same ‘tortoise and hare’ mistake that HIllary did. Already he and his team have come to the Buckeye State a million times more than HIllary did for the entire campaign. Second, we are seeing a tremendous amount of support here. Whereas in 2016 for every Hillary sign, there was probably a dozen Trump signs, now it’s about 2 or 3 Biden signs for every Trump. What that means I don’t know. But I don’t think Trump can count on the Democrats doing the ‘coast and be lazy’ strategy that Clinton took four years ago.
But I don’t think Trump can count on the Democrats doing the ‘coast and be lazy’ strategy that Clinton took four years ago.
The Biden campaign is comatose compared to Clinton’s. His visits to states often involve ten or less supporters, often outnumbered by many more Trump supporters who show up.
Over the weekend Latinos for Trump had a car parade in Miami that drew 30,000 cars. Biden had a competing event in Miami that drew 15 cars.
Clinton had an extensive ground campaign to get out the vote; Biden has none. Trump is the one with the extensive ground game now.
It could be an Ohio perspective. In light of Hillary’s famous ‘end the Coal Industry’ quote (that industry being heavily represented in Ohio’s SE quadrant, and a major buttress for the Democrats outside of the primary metropolitan areas), we were shocked at how little time or attention she gave to the state. In many ways, that was what tipped Ohio so heavily for Trump. Much of the rest of the state did what it often does in presidentials, but losing some of that blue collar rust belt vote cost her dearly. It was made worse by the almost complete shunning she seemed to give us. Compared to that, Biden has done far more. And we’ve seen far more support for him this time than we did Clinton in 2016. Whether that is the case around the country I don’t know. But here in Ohio, things aren’t what they were in at least those two cases.
For what it’s worth…the bride and I are just finishing up our lockdown-delayed summer sojourn in northwestern Illinois, where the cable company comes out of the Dubuque, Iowa area and the political ads are targeted to both Illinois and Iowa. Biden is running a LOT of TV ads here. I presume this means the Biden campaign believes they need Iowa, which tells me they are bordering on desperation over the rest of the upper Midwest. I also presume they are in no real danger of losing Illinois, a/k/a the State of Chicago Plus All Those Rural Rubes. But if their internals are telling them Illinois might be in play, this could be really interesting.
I think the post from the other day about the state of the electoral map is fundamentally correct. So Biden has to more or less run the table to win, whereas Trump only needs to pick off a couple of small to medium states (or one big State –Pennsylvania) to win.
I don’t what, it anything signage tells us. I think I’m seeing more Biden signs than I saw Clinton signs for years ago, and about the same number of Trump signs. I believe the shy Trump voter thing is real (nobody’s going to vandalize your house for having a Biden sign –unless you do it yourself of course, but can Trump supporters say the same? I also think Biden is less off-putting than was Hillary, so there might be slightly more support for him than there was for Hillary … maybe. If that’s the case, the Democrats will see to it that there’s a fresh Covid outbreak every four years from now until they no longer need to bother with the appearance of elections.
The thing is, Trump had to run the table last time. And he did it. Biden could do the same this time
EDITED BY FOXFIER-
the closing /a ended up on the wrong side of the word now holding the link, but was correctly formatted
this post
The one entitled frontrunner.
Good grief, I’m done trying to make html work. Somebody fix the darn pneumatic tubes! I’ll send my links via pony express!
Here are 7 predictions of how the election will end. Trump wins but confusion and anarchy prevail.
https://uncoverdc.com/2020/09/16/predictions-for-how-2020-comes-to-an-end/
Thanks M.D. for the interesting link.
Draining the entire swamp is going to get messy. I agree with many of the authors predictions. Fraudulent ballots is a given. A colossal victory for Trump is possible because there is a huge difference between “woke” and engaged. I believe we have many quiet engaged patriots that will roar come election day. The silent majority love America and detest the marxists intimidation tactics. Despite the indoctrination centers and the brainwashing thereof, Trump will win.
Snowflakes will melt.
Biden will mumble his way into obscurity.
Michael that is interesting:
Prediction 1: Trump will win the election in a landslide. I know, the media is telling you the polls are tight, but just look around. Trump rallies are packed to the gills while Biden can’t fill the bleachers at a high school football field. Trump supporters hold huge boat parades while we see NONE for Biden. Trump supporters hold freeway caravans around that country that take up all lanes of a freeway, while an attempted caravan for Biden in Las Vegas drew only 30 people. Just like in 2016, pollsters today are making it look like it’s a close race. This is gaslighting – they’re telling you something that runs directly opposite of what your own eyes are telling you, but they’re expecting you to believe what they say.
If our Marxist fellow countrymen decide that they prefer bullets to ballots they will have chosen poorly, to quote a classic scene from Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. They are dealing with people who prefer peace to strife but who prefer liberty above all.
I just drove halfway across the country and back, and I saw five times as many Trump stickers on cars, Trump Flags in houses, and Trump signs in yards compared to Biden. I saw public Trump support in MARYLAND and Northern Virginia of all places. Most of the Biden stuff I saw was in Illinois.
Heck, I saw more Tulsi Gabbard signage than I did for Biden on half that trip. Even had several people in town take down their Biden signs, and one is now flying a Trump flag…
“If their internals are telling them Illinois might be in play”
It’s possible – not likely but at least possible – if the evident lack of enthusiasm for Biden among Black and Hispanic voters depresses turnout among the usually reliable Dem voters in Chicago and the burbs. A Dem candidate who fails to get at least 80 percent of the vote in Cook County (e.g., Gov Pat Quinn in 2014) is in serious danger of losing a statewide race, particularly if GOP turnout downstate is high. I could see this happening… interestingly, the Tribune just ran a story about lack of support/interest in Biden among young Black voters in other large Midwest cities such as Detroit and Cleveland and how this could tilt those states to Trump. The unspoken/unwritten question is whether that could also apply to Chicago.
I’m not expecting the President to win, in part because people seem to be having perverse reactions to stimuli. I have a conversation over the phone with my sister. She’s been talking about leaving Seattle for years for personal-professional reasons. Well, here she is pushing 60 with a nasty chunk taken off the value of her house and this commonly florid woman has almost no visceral reaction and talks about horrid local pols as if they were amusing inhabitants of an ant farm. (The last time we spoke of it, she was loudly opinionated about the tech employees she blamed for making Seattle such an expensive place to live, but somehow the grossly irresponsible characters on the Seattle city council do not animate her at all). I have an ordinarily sensible cousin who blames the President reflexively for everything. You see, he’s ‘divisive’. (People who use the term ‘divisive’ usually deserve to be beaten with sharp objects). On top of that, we’re going to be seeing massive fraud with mail-in ballots (and massive lying about the massive fraud). It will extend to congressional races. On top of that, the Democratic Party is so lawless that even if Trump won, a Democratic Congress might refuse to certify his electoral votes. We really do not have the constitutional mechanisms in place to contain and adjust the coming conflicts.
What’s bizarre about all of this is that neither Trump nor the Republicans have offered anything but incremental policy adjustments and even egregious measures like Obergefell have been met with bland and complacent reactions by Republicans. We’re on the verge of civil war, and the reason is that elements of the professional-managerial class don’t get what they want 100% of the time and that’s driven them into a frenzy.
Yesterday, 56% of those polled said they are better off [despite the Dems’ China virus lock outs and concomitant, deep economic depression] now than four years ago [after eight horrid years of Obama/Biden].
Fact: since overdue re-openings were allowed, 10.5 million jobs were restored: more jobs than Obama/Biden added in eight horrid years.
My gut feeling is that if Trump isn’t reelected by sunrise, Nov. 4, he won’t be.
After Trump has the federal marshals seize every ballot box in the country he will be the president no matter what the Democrats try to pull, with the Supreme Court ultimately resolving the ensuing lawsuits. The Democrats plan on cheating and Trump plans on stopping them.
I could see that backfiring in a major way.
What will they do Ernst? Riot in the streets? Murder innocent people? Have jack booted thugs invade residential areas? Been there done that. This election is not going to be stolen, come what may.
1) The Left is going to do what the Left is going to do.
2) I doubt he has the authority to order the marshals to do that. Elections are a state thing, after all.
3) I wonder whether the marshal’s would obey an order like that.
“I doubt he has the authority to order the marshals to do that. Elections are a state thing, after all.”
Presidential elections are Federal. Ford in 1976 ordered the impounding of ballot boxes in two states prior to conceding.
Plenty of Federal marshals if some don’t wish to carry out their duties.
I trust it will not come to this, but in 2020 I don’t think we can assume anything.
Now the JCS GEN Milley has publically said he’s against the Cmd-in-Chief’s plan for troops withdrawal from Afghanistan. Second time he has publically stated what he shouldn’t have.
Now the JCS GEN Milley has publically said he’s against the Cmd-in-Chief’s plan for troops withdrawal from Afghanistan. Second time he has publically stated what he shouldn’t have.
Where was that reported?
NY Times, CNN, Military Times, CBS, Washington Post, FOX News evening show.
Actual story is Trump said a bunch of guys “should” be home for Christmas, and the General reiterated that military decisions will be made by facts on the ground, not a time-table.
Which the Usual Suspects decided to spin into high drama, because heaven forbid that someone project based on current conditions and someone else remind the world that we’re not idiot robots.
We all know what would’ve happened if the General had said “yeah, innit great, things are going so well”– “zomga Trump leaks military plans on twitter!”
In an interview with NPR Gen. Milley pushed back on National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien’s comments on troop withdrawals from Afghanistan. Comments by both men as written in the press contradicted the President’s comments on that subject. With NOV 3 so close it’s important for the Administration to be on the same page. Best not to comment at all when it’s known that the press will skew facts or outright lie about Trump.