From a commentator at The Hedgehog Report, a site that looks at polls:
Take a look at this electoral map:
https://www.270towin.com/maps/dpQy8
Trump has a floor of 259 EVs. Granted, I am assuming that FL and AZ will go red, but that is a reasonable assumption based on the non-MSM “narrative” polls and the real metrics (such as the trends is voter registration, VBM, and Trump’s surge among black and hispanic voters).
What the map shows is that Trump only needs one of WI, MN, PA or MI. He could even win by plucking VA (which is admittedly unlikely), or by taking some mix of NH, ME-2 and NV.
On the other hand, Biden has to SWEEP almost all of the remaining states. And Trump is more than competitive in everyone one of them, and likely leading in more than a few.
This is evidence of how powerful the MSM remains. In truth, Biden is a distant longshot electorally, and may need a miracle. (This is why the media is so angered by Trump’s rapid recovery from the virus – they were praying that would be their black swan event). But the MSM is still able to paint the picture of Biden leading the race by flooding the discussion with rigged polls showing Biden +16.
In reality, Trump is the real frontrunner, and it could get ugly for the dems downballot. That may explain some of the recent odd activities — like dancing around court-packing, and the 25th amendment. The Dems in the know see the real landscape, and are desperate to drive the youth vote and the hard left to the polls. They desperately need a 2008-type turnout. But the sad truth for them is that Biden is a dud, and Harris is an actual liability. They can see what is coming, and it is not pretty.
I concur. Assuming a floor of 259, Trump doesn’t need much more to win. Just taking Wisconsin or Minnesota would bring his tally up to 269, a tie. That would toss it to the House. The vote in the House would be by state delegations and the Republicans currently control 26 of them. Of the remaining states, two are deadlocked, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with each having equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats. The Senate picks the Veep on a straight vote. However, the new Congress elected in November, is the one that votes, and its make up is currently, of course, unknown. I think a tie quite unlikely, but this is 2020 where the unlikely is becoming predictable.
Trump has good chances of taking Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. A better chance of taking Maine 02 for one electoral vote. A slightly worse chance of taking New Hampshire. The Democrats have some worry about Nevada. Rising strength of Trump among Hispanics might put New Mexico in reach. Virginia is probably out of reach, but certainly in the realm of possibility.
State polls are indicating that a Biden lead of double digits is illusory. If Biden is ahead at all, I think it is between two and four points, with much of that wasted in running up the score in the blue states of New York and California. A polarized nation is more of a problem for the Democrats because so much of their strength is in large urban centers in states that are going to go Democrat anyway. The big X factor in 2016 was how much of the Republican vote would walk away from Trump. A minuscule amount was the answer, the Never Trumpers having lots of chiefs and few Indians. With his cross over appeal to blue collar Democrats, those who rarely vote and Hispanics, Trump is a candidate who the pollsters are finding it increasingly difficult to poll, and that is why many Democrat party higher-ups are alarmed despite the polls.
Great map! And overall, pretty reasonable.
I believe that it’s the new Congress that actually votes. That’s what I’ve read at least. It’s not explicit in the 12th Amendment as far as I can see. It’s why it’s important to take the House back in this election.
You are correct Steve. I forgot to take into account the Twentieth Amendment which changed the swearing in dates for the Congress and the President.
and what is most important is to keep the Senate Republican, no matter what. That’s why I’m contributing my mite to Republican Senate candidates, not to the presidential campaign.
Best explanation on the matter I’ve read.
It has been my feeling for awhile that this election is 100% Trump vs Media. Because Biden is literal nothing. If the media was reporting on him with completely objectivity, Trump’s 2nd election would look like Nixon’s or Reagan’s. But the media is doing EVERYTHING they can to help the poor man down to putting literal words in his mouth while doing everything they can to undercut Trump. If I was a statistician interested in accurately measuring things, this election would give me a pretty good baseline for how much of a percentage swing the media is worth. (I would love to see a state by state analysis of media trust and how well that corresponds to electoral votes.)
Nate, you are right, it is the media vs. Trump. The first debate put the reality on display. The debate was Trump vs. Wallace. Biden was an afterthought.
I think that everyone knows that at some level, even if they can’t put it into words. The problem is that the bugmen on the left are very happy with the idea of submitting to their betters in the media.
Another reason for Dems to be very nervous this year: they won’t be able to mobilize the college student vote to the extent they normally do since the COVID lockdowns have kept millions of students away from campus.
Thanks for the shout out!
You are welcome Boog. Superb analysis!
Compare John Hinderacker’s pessimistic look at the fundamentals
Bottom line: Trump ought to be cruising toward a Reagan ’84 or Nixon ’72 level blowout. That he’s not (according to HInderacker) ought to tell us something about the health of our body politic.
And it ain’t covid that ails us.
Ernst: Hinderaker apparently believes the propaganda polls. Between that and the poorly disguised NeverTrumper Mirengoff, I have all but completely lost interest in Powerline. Not sure what they’re smoking up there. Hayward still appears sane, though.