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The State of the Race a Fortnight Out

election

 

The polls are tightening and Trump seems to have momentum.  The Washington Post tracker poll is down to six, Clinton advantage, from twelve over the weekend.  The Fox poll, released last night, is down to a three point Clinton advantage from six last week.

The Los Angeles tracker today has Trump up one.  The IDB tracker has Clinton up by one today and Rasmussen has Clinton up by one today.

My gut reaction is that currently this is probably a three point race, Clinton advantage, plus or minus one either way.  I think a two point race is a danger zone for Clinton, as the greater enthusiasm of the pro-Trump/anti-Clinton voters might overcome such a gap.  We shall see.

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Donald R. McClarey

Cradle Catholic. Active in the pro-life movement since 1973. Father of three and happily married for 35 years. Small town lawyer and amateur historian. Former president of the board of directors of the local crisis pregnancy center for a decade.

5 Comments

  1. The world is watching this election and all its tawdry goings on.
    It seems to me that if Hitlary wins the presidency, the US election process will be seen to be totally compromised, and the USA will be looked on as a joke, in the same way that countries like Argentina, Zimbabwe, South Africa and other corrupt countries are viewed.

  2. I think you are right Don the Kiwi. We can surely embarrass ourselves if we can’t see now what is going on and have the courage to stand up and call for change. I hope the “better angels” of our nature will prevail.
    It is not just social/political – but a spiritual warfare too-
    .
    2 Kings 6:15 -17
    “When an attendant of the man of God rose early in the morning and went out, an army with horses and chariots was all around the city. His servant said, ‘Alas, master! What shall we do?’ He replied, ‘Do not be afraid, for there are more with us than there are with them.’ Then Elisha prayed: ‘O Lord, please open his eyes that he may see.’ So the Lord opened the eyes of the servant, and he saw; the mountain was full of horses and chariots of fire all around Elisha.”

  3. If Trump has momentum, I’m not seeing it. He’s doing better than Hillary or tying in a poll here and there. Overall, not enough to win it. 13 days out, Clinton is ahead by 5.9 points in the RCP average. Obama led by 5.8 points in 2008 at this point and won. Obama led by 0.9 points in 2012 and won. Things could change. Maybe Trump will host more hotel openings days before the election.

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