Barone Predicts Romney Landslide: Romney 315-Obama 223

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Lat week, in a post that may be read here, I noted that Michael Barone, the most astute political analyst of the American political scene, predicted that Romney would win.  Yesterday in the Washington Examiner he gave his electoral vote prediction:

Which candidate will get the electoral votes of the target states? I’ll go out on a limb and predict them, in ascending order of 2008 Obama percentages — fully aware that I’m likely to get some wrong.

Indiana (11 electoral votes). Uncontested. Romney.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Obama has abandoned this target. Romney.

Florida (29). The biggest target state has trended Romney since the Denver debate. I don’t see any segment of the electorate favoring Obama more than in 2008, and I see some (South Florida Jews) favoring him less. Romney.

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney.

Virginia (13). Post-debate polling mildly favors Romney, and early voting is way down in heavily Democratic Arlington, Alexandria, Richmond and Norfolk. Northern Virginia Asians may trend Romney. Romney.

Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.

Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer’s remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats’ traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney.

Minnesota (10). A surprise last-minute media buy for the Romney campaign. But probably a bridge too far. Obama.

New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney.

Nevada (6). Democratic early-voting turnout is down from 2008 in Las Vegas’ Clark County, 70 percent of the state. But the casino unions’ turnout machine on Election Day re-elected an unpopular Harry Reid in 2010, and I think they’ll get enough Latinos and Filipinos out this time. Obama.

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Oregon (7), New Mexico (5), New Jersey (14). Uncontested. Obama.

Michigan (16). Romney chose Pennsylvania, where there’s no auto bailout issue. Obama.

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.

Barone is a careful sober analyst and not a partisan.  You can bet these predictions sent shock waves through the inner circles of both campaigns yesterday.

 

 

16 Responses to Barone Predicts Romney Landslide: Romney 315-Obama 223

  • Rozin says:

    “Landslide” is not an appropriate term for the electoral college. It usually magnifies two-party popular vote margins although in 2004 it did not. I don’t think Barone is predicting a 10 point popular vote margin. I would take a narrow Romney margin (less than 2%) in the popular vote but it would bode ill for the country (see the UK).

  • “I’m just afraid that Obama and company will use that template nationally.”

    That would be a very, very poor choice on their part.

    Additionally, considering how many states are controlled by Republicans I doubt if it would be possible.

  • Rozin says:

    D McC says “I have always wondered if Reid won or stole that race.”

    My impression is that it was won on turnout. Harry made sure his union and Hispanic voters turned out while the Republican Party made no great effort for a candidate they disliked.

  • Greg Mockeridge says:

    “I have always wondered if Reid won or stole that race.”

    Harry Reid steal an election? Nooo! You don’t think Harry would do such a thing now would you? In any event, I hope Barron is right.

  • Elaine Krewer says:

    “intensity among rural, small-town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles”

    That was, I presume, a big part of the reason for Reagan’s surprise (at least to the media) landslide win in 1980. If I remember correctly (I was 16 at the time and not yet old enough to vote), all the talking heads and various polls had Carter and Reagan running neck and neck right up to the end, and it was only in the final week or so that internal (not publicized at the time) polling indicated that Reagan had jumped ahead. Is history repeating itself here?

  • Its been interesting comparing the enthusiasm and size of the Romney rallies with those of Obama. Romney has been drawing huge, boisterous crowds. Obama has been drawing small crowds for a President, many of them bussed in Union members. Yeah, I think the Mainstream Media is completely in the dark regarding the nature of this election.

  • Donna V. says:

    Thank you, Donald, this bucks me up. I am one nervous Nellie – my stomach is in knots. I admit, I am finding the polls baffling. All the trends look to be working in R/R’s favor – a huge lead among white men, a narrowing of the gap among women, Romney leading among independents – and yet polls show the race tied or Obama with a slight lead. On an anecdotal level, I’ve worked the phones for RR and one gentleman told me the other day that he would crawl over ground glass and then swim across a pool filled with rubbing alcohol to vote for Romney. I’ve heard similiar sentiments from other Republicans and there are a surprising number of RR signs in liberal neighborhoods here. I saw the same thing during the Walker recall effort, and I don’t remember seeing ANY McCain signs in the same neighborhoods in ’08.

    At the same time, I don’t want to kid myself by telling myself the polls mean nothing. I feel like I’m going crazy or living in some alternate universe when I look at the polls, which defy logic. But then I don’t understand how anybody could vote for 4 more years of Obama.

  • Elaine Krewer says:

    An observation from downstate Illinois, which is about 53-47 in favor of Romney (but unfortunately, can’t overcome the 80-20 Obama advantage in Cook County):

    The greatest concentration of Obama/Biden signs that I have seen has been in a wealthy enclave of Springfield known as Leland Grove. Older, stately established neighborhood favored by doctors, lawyers, lobbyists, etc. I counted about 8 Obama signs within an area roughly 5 blocks square, about a week ago. (There were about 4 or 5 Romney signs in the same general area.)

    However, the last time I passed through the predominantly African-American part of town (about 3 weeks ago) I did not see ANY Obama signs along the route — though by now that might have changed — but there were plenty of signs for other, local Democratic candidates. Nor have I seen any Obama signs in the middle/working class neighborhoods where they were all over the place 4 years ago.

  • chad kincham says:

    Three other analysts are calling for Romney to win by a landside: Dick Morris, George F. Will, and Wayne Allyn Root.

    Thank God, Romney will be President in 2013.

  • Barry says:

    Elaine Krewer: “That was, I presume, a big part of the reason for Reagan’s surprise (at least to the media) landslide win in 1980. If I remember correctly (I was 16 at the time and not yet old enough to vote), all the talking heads and various polls had Carter and Reagan running neck and neck right up to the end, and it was only in the final week or so that internal (not publicized at the time) polling indicated that Reagan had jumped ahead. Is history repeating itself here?”

    IIRC, that’s not the case; Reagan was leading for a couple of months, at least. What changed at the end was the margin.

  • Well, well, well. a Thomas C. Joyce from Buffalo, who I assume is the Thomas C. Joyce who teaches English Lit at Canisius, the Jesuit college located there, dropped by to unleash what I assume he thought was a clever stink bomb:

    “So, with all that enthusiasm for Govenor Romney, and even blacks turning against Obama, I guess the MSM and all their fancy “Polls” loo foolish.

    How did the election turn out? Did anyone get a chance to see Romney’s Victory Speech. He didn’t even write a concession speech, he was so confident.”

    Enjoy your pro-abort parties’ time at the top of the political wheel Professor. Such moments tend to be brief and are to be treasured. Put 2010 out of your mind as you gloat, forget about the problems facing the nation and the threat to religious freedom posed by the administration you support and simply enjoy yourself. In the meantime, we will go about our work helping to make certain that the victory you bask in now will be ephemeral.

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