Electoral Map 2012
Now that the Weathervane is going to be the nominee it is time to start looking at the electoral map for the fall. Go here to view an interactive electoral map with my prediction of the outcome in November.
Actually, that is my cautious prediction based upon current conditions: Romney 291-Obama 247. I think it possible, perhaps probable, that either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania will also go Republican in the Presidential contest. With Pennsylvania the final tally would be Romney 311-Obama 227. With Wisconsin it is Romney 301-Obama 237. With both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania it is an electoral landslide of Romney 321-Obama 217.
In the Rasmussen polls Romney had a lead of a few points over Obama all last week. I expect the polls to fluctuate, but I believe on election day Romney will win with a tally of 54 for him and 45 for Obama.
The battleground states will be Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Obama will make a head feint against North Carolina, but that will be to divert Romney to spending time and money there. Romney’s best choice for Veep is Rubio, who will seal the deal on Florida, cut into the Hispanic vote, help mend fences with conservatives and is perfect on the religious liberty issue. Obama should dump Biden, but I doubt he will. Choosing Biden was Obama’s way of saying that he needed absolutely no help to win in 2008 and I suspect he believes that will also be true in 2012. Romney should be able to raise enough funds so the Obama money advantage will be negligible.
American presidential elections are almost always on the economy and I expect the economy to worsen, at least marginally, between now and election day. According to Rasmussen, Romney has a 10 point advantage over Obama on who voters trust on the economy and I expect that to increase as we get closer in to election day.