Predictions

The midterm elections are upon us a week from tomorrow, so it is time for predictions.  Predictions are harder than normal this year because we are dealing with an unprecedented situation in modern American politics.  Never before have the Republicans been so far ahead on almost every generic Congressional ballot, and never have they enjoyed such a large enthusiasm gap between their voters and voters who intend to vote for Democrats.  Additionally, never before have the Republicans fielded so many well-funded candidates in traditional Democrat strongholds.  This is political terra incognita.  Almost all serious political analysts believe that the GOP will take more than the 39 seats necessary to take the House, with some of the chief prognosticators making the following predictions:  Larry Sabato (47), RCP (”up to 57?), Charlie Cook (52), Jay Cost (61), and Nate Silver (51).

The Republican supporting Club for Growth has a list here of the 116 Democrat seats that are in play as of now, and current ratings as to the likelihood of the GOP taking them.  The number of Democrat seats in competitive races expands each day with new polling information trickling in from Congressional districts.   

From everything I’ve seen, and unless something radical occurs in the next week to turn the election on its head, I think the GOP will gain approximately 82 seats.  I believe that many Democrats in supposedly safe seats are actually in trouble, but most House races have very little polling.  What polling has gone on in supposedly safe Democrat areas have often revealed shockingly close races.  Many of these Democrats have never had to run against serious Republican candidates before, and I think surprise victories in these “safe” seats will be in the range of 20-25 seats.  The Republicans will gain back virtually all of the 50 seats that they lost to the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, and Republicans will pick up many seats left vacant by Democratic retirements.  I expect GOP losses to be no more than 3.

In regard to the Senate I expect the GOP to gain at least 11 seats and take control of the Senate.  These Senate seats will be Indiana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, California, Colorado, Nevada, West Virginia,  Arkansas and Washington.

As to Governor races, I believe the GOP will pick up 8 state houses and control 32 governorships as redistricting occurs.

Those are my predictions;  what are yours?  We will go over all predictions, especially mine, in excruciating detail after the election!

9 Responses to Predictions

  • The people who do this for a living (e.g. the Rothenberg Political Report) are predicting the federal legislature will have something close to a 50-50 split, with a modest Republican advantage in the House and a modest Democratic advantage in the Senate.

    The current President is not Gerald Ford. He does not have an extensive history (or any history) of negotiating with the political opposition. The Governor of Minnesota has said the President shows no evidence of being able to set priorities in the manner of an ordinary political executive and we can see the Democratic Congressional caucus could not do so either. The Republican Party remains addled by the notions of Arthur Laffer and Grover Norquist. With these characters, we face the severest fiscal challenge of the post-bellum period. I do not think this is going to end well.

    A wave of sovereign defaults is not going to be pretty. The U.S. military taking a page from their Uruguayan counterparts, ca. 1973, is not going to be pretty either.

  • The funny thing is that everything seems to be trending up for the GOP in the House and down in the Senate as far as polls are concerned. The said, it’s looking something like a 65-70 seat gain in the House for the Republicans. I’m going to say that it will be an even ten seat pickup in the Senate to give the GOP a majority. I think Don’s spot on with the local races.

    As to what this will all mean – I’ll write about that after election day.

  • 82, 11 and 32? I hope you are right.

  • Would it not be more prudent to wait until after the elections to give your predictions?
    Will you not also give us the weather predictions? the state of the stock market? who will win the Super Bowl?

    Predictions are a mug’s game. What purpose do they serve? what benefit?

  • Would it not be more prudent to wait until after the elections to give your predictions?

    At that point they would no longer be accurately called predictions, but rather a reporting of facts.

    Predictions are a mug’s game. What purpose do they serve? what benefit?

    It’s called having some fun with politics. Relax and enjoy.

  • The national debt has ballooned by $5,000,000,000,000.00 since Squeaker pelosi promised no new deficit spending in the 2007 liberal takeover of conress.

    Obama stated that if THEY let him borrow $2,500,000,000,000.00 (next year it will approach $4,000,000,000,000.00), unemployment would not exceed 8% – it is 9.4% and they keep subtracting numbers from the denominator.

    Anyone besides me and the tea party know why Obamacare does not body slam us until 2013?

    The only states with private sector job rowth are Red states.

    Eat when you’re hungry.
    Drink when you’re dry.
    If the sky don’t fall in,
    You’ll live ’til you die!

    Big government is the problem, not the solution.

  • I will be honored to cast my first vote as a Californian against Missus Boxer.

  • I am voting for Toomey and Corbett in Pennsylvania.
    I hope that Donald’s predictions come true.

    I predict that the GOP will gain at least 70 seats in the House and at least 9 seats in the Senate.

  • You’re in California, Joe? Here’s to casting our votes against Babs “Call me Senator” Boxer!

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