From The Institute For The Study of War:
Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
July 9, 6:15 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian-backed occupation authorities in Kharkiv Oblast stated that Kharkiv Oblast is an “inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating that the Kremlin likely intends to annex part or all of Kharkiv Oblast.[1] The Russian occupation government in Kharkiv Oblast unveiled a new flag for the occupation regime in Kharkiv Oblast containing the Russian imperial double-headed eagle and symbols from the 18th century Kharkiv coat of arms.[2] The Russian occupation government stated that the imagery in the flag is a “symbol of the historical roots of Kharkiv Oblast as an inalienable part of Russian land,” indicating that the Kremlin seeks to annex portions of Kharkiv Oblast to Russia and likely seeks to capture all of Kharkiv Oblast if it can.[3] The Kharkiv Oblast occupation government’s speed in establishing a civilian administration on July 6 and introducing martial law in occupied Kharkiv Oblast on July 8 further indicates that the Kremlin is aggressively pursuing the legitimization and consolidation of the Kharkiv Oblast occupation administration’s power to support this broader territorial aim.[4] The Kharkiv Oblast occupation government’s explicit use of Imperial Russian imagery and rhetoric pointing clearly at annexation, rather than using imagery and rhetoric supporting the establishment of a “people’s republic,” reinforces ISW’s prior assessment that the Kremlin has broader territorial aims than capturing Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts or even holding southern Ukraine.[5]
The Kremlin has likely used a leaked letter from mothers demanding the ban of journalist activity on the frontlines to promote self-censorship among pro-Russian milbloggers and war correspondents. Russian opposition outlet Meduza released a letter from mothers of an Astrakhan-based platoon that blamed Kremlin-sponsored Izvestia war correspondent Valentin Trushnin for reporting the details of Russian positions in a way that led to the deaths of their sons.[6] Meduza removed the letter from its website on July 8. First Deputy of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Information Minister and milblogger Daniil Bezsonov reported noticing suggestions from unspecified “faceless experts” to censor his posts regarding Russian war efforts.[7] Bezsonov noted that Russian war correspondents received necessary accreditations from the Kremlin and follow protocol when reporting from the frontline to refrain from exposing Russian positions. Bezsonov also argued that Russian war correspondents took the initiative to keep Russians updated on the situation on the front line from the first days of the war, while Russian “big bosses” failed to launch an information campaign to counter claimed Ukrainian information warfare. Several Russian milbloggers shared Bezsonov’s remarks, with proxy serviceman Maksim Fomin stating that Russian Defense Ministry briefings are not sufficient to replace combat footage.[8]
The Kremlin faces challenges directly censoring pro-Russian milbloggers and war correspondents but will likely continue to look for opportunities to promote self-censorship. Moscow has not demonstrated the ability to compel Telegram to delete or control the content of channels, and so would likely have to threaten individual milbloggers with legal or extra-legal action to stop them from publishing on that platform. Russia could prevent war correspondents publishing in regular media outlets from writing stories or deprive them of access to the front lines. But both the milbloggers and the war correspondents are explicitly pro-war and patriotic, often ultra-nationalist, with large followings likely concentrated among Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key supporters. Threatening or suppressing them directly could backfire if Putin’s motivation in doing so is to stop them from undermining support for the war or questioning authority. Actions such as the use of this leaked and possibly faked letter to stoke self-censorship or induce pressure from the readers of these blogs and articles toward self-censorship may be an effort to achieve the Kremlin’s desired effects without the risk of having them backfire.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults northwest of Slovyansk and conducted offensive operations east of Siversk from the Lysychansk area.
- Russian forces continued localized attacks northwest of Kharkiv City, likely in an effort to defend Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the area.
- Russian forces continue to face personnel and equipment shortages, relying on old armored personnel carriers and launching new recruitment campaigns.
- Russian forces continued to set conditions for the annexation of Donbas, Kharkiv Oblast, and southern Ukraine.
Go here to read the rest. The Russians seem to prefer to do anything other than to fight all out war.
The Russians may be preparing for something bigger. The Belgorod was just turned over to the Russian Navy. It’s the sub armed with the autonomous Poseidon 6 nuclear propelled, nuclear armed torpedo that can loiter undetected in an enemy’s harbor for months at a time before detonation at the exact tight moment. Not an appropriate weapon against Ukraine, but ideal against us. More here:
https://youtu.be/E3emc70Pjv0
Frederick Kagan is Robert Kagan’s brother. Robert Kagan co-founded the Project for the New American Century with Bill Kristol. Nothing he or his ilk have to say about any given topic is of value. But enjoy the thrill of pretending to be some brilliant military strategist playing war games each time you copy and paste one of these things.
But enjoy the thrill of pretending to be some brilliant military strategist playing war games each time you copy and paste one of these things.
Sonny, we will somehow soldier on without your three comments. You are banned from this blog.
Nothing he or his ilk have to say about any given topic is of value.
It gives a concise daily overview which is what I want to keep the blog up to date on the war. I supplement it with Strategy Page and other sources. Unlike you I try to learn from a variety of sources and do not automatically write off any source, but rather I compare and contrast them with each other.
Frederick Kagan is Robert Kagan’s brother. Robert Kagan co-founded the Project for the New American Century with Bill Kristol.
The Project for a New American Century was a political advocacy group that existed for all of nine years and during its years of operation had an office staff of four. Its a fixation of palaeo types, Unz types, and SJW Catholics. People of these persuasions tend to loathe the State of Israel and entertain fanciful notions about Joo wire-pulling.
Nothing he or his ilk have to say about any given topic is of value.
All of them are scholarly subject specialists. Academe is liberally salted with people who are given to mendacity, office politics, political and social sectarianism, self-indulgence and self-centeredness, and misappropriation of other people’s money. Professors and administrators are very commonly people making the world worse and not very respectable. What have these people done that makes them worse than an ordinary professor? Why is it that nothing they say is of value?
The Project for a New American Century was a political advocacy group that existed for all of nine years and during its years of operation had an office staff of four.
Of course you think that an organization’s staff size is correlated with its influence. You’re a boomer who indulges in boomer-tier thinking.
Its [sic] a fixation of palaeo [sic] types, Unz types, and SJW Catholics.
How dare you call me a Catholic? I abhor Pope Francis.
People of these persuasions tend to loathe the State of Israel and entertain fanciful notions about Joo wire-pulling.
The second that anybody criticizes a foreign war, Art Deco’s here to accuse them of anti-Semitism. The fact that he associates neoconservatism and U.S. militarism with Jewish people says more about him than it does about his enemies. As far as loathing the State of Israel is concerned, guilty as charged. I tend to dislike U.S. client states that subsidize abortion and indiscriminately kill Palestinian children. If that makes me anti-Semitic, then I suppose that any hater of the Chinese Communist Party is guilty of Sinophobia and that any critic of Pope Francis hates people from Argentina.
What have these people done that makes them worse than an ordinary professor? Why is it that nothing they say is of value?
Who said anything about them being worse than your average college professor? Regardless, they should be ignored because their mendacity got over a million people killed and contributed to the decline of American conservatism. (It also got John Roberts on the bench, turned Virginia blue, and helped the Democrats steal the 2020 election. The fact that a spineless fraud like Bill Kristol can go from sitting on the board of the Susan B. Anthony List to open condemning the reversal of Roe v. Wade should tell you how insincere these people are.)
Sonny, we will somehow soldier on without your three comments. You are banned from this blog.
Is this how they teach you to debate at SIU, Donald? Just kidding. They don’t teach anything at that, ahem, school.
Never attended SIU. I got my degrees from the U of I. However my son did get his JD from SIU on a full ride scholarship which was better than the rather good deal offered him by the U of I, his undergrad school..
I will not deter you from editing your magnum opus on the decline of the West, and you are banned from this blog. Snide and snark are no substitute for wisdom on this blog.
“Oswald Spengler”, you’re awfully invested in defending that other person.
Of course you think that an organization’s staff size is correlated with its influence. You’re a boomer who indulges in boomer-tier thinking.
Yes it is correlated. It’s an indication of the manpower they have to propagate their worldview and the success they have in pulling in donors. It’s not an exhaustive indicator. The use of ‘boomer’ as an insult makes no sense, but it is a signature of Steve Sailer’s acolytes.
How dare you call me a Catholic? I abhor Pope Francis.
I didn’t call you anything. No clue who you are don’t recall ever running into your handle online. Your particular stances and idiom are indicative of a certain type with which I’m familiar.
The second that anybody criticizes a foreign war, Art Deco’s here to accuse them of anti-Semitism.
Actually, I made an observation about purveyors of three strands of thought, an observation that is demonstrably true. You can draw your own implications about why these people have the dispositions and shticks that they do.
The fact that he associates neoconservatism and U.S. militarism with Jewish people says more about him than it does about his enemies.
The term ‘militarism’ is a nonsense concept in an American context, or, indeed, with reference to any occidental country in the last 60 odd years. The use of the term ‘neoconservative’ to refer to work published after about 1992 is also bollocks. No, it doesn’t say anything about me. I’m not obsessed with people who once worked in an office with people who belonged to the Committee for the Free World. That’s an affectation of palaeos, Unz types, and SJW Catholics. The membership of the Committee for the Free World and the editorial staffs of The Public Interest, Commentary and The American Scholar were plurality Jewish, which is only of mild interest to me but positively addles these other shnooks.
As far as loathing the State of Israel is concerned, guilty as charged. I tend to dislike U.S. client states that subsidize abortion and indiscriminately kill Palestinian children.
There are few occidental countries which do not have legal abortion and there are none which do not subsidize the services of physicians and surgeons. Same deal with Japan and the affluent orient. Same deal in the post-communist world. You must loathe every place in the world other than Malta.
The children living on the West Bank, in Gaza, and in UNRWA camps are not being ‘indiscriminately killed’ by Israel or anyone else. Some of them are killed during Israel’s military operations, but they are not killed indiscriminately nor intentionally. The PA claims that Israeli forces killed 900 civilians during Operation Cast Lead. It’s not that difficult to have a quiet border with Israel and Jordan has managed it for > 50 years. Hamas, al Fatah, and Hezbollah could manage that too; the first step would be to stop running artillery barrages on Jewish towns. Works for Jordan. It’s interesting of all the mayhem in the Near East, what you notice is is the discrete operations in which Israel engages.
Regardless, they should be ignored because their mendacity got over a million people killed
That has no reality outside your imagination.
(It also got John Roberts on the bench, turned Virginia blue, and helped the Democrats steal the 2020 election.
I have no clue why you fancy the Kagans any responsibility for any of this. I take it your teachers never told you to show your work.