From The Institute For the Study of War:
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 21, 5:30pm ET
Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 21. Russian forces northwest and northeast of Kyiv continued to shell the city and strengthen defensive positions but did not conduct major offensive operations. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations toward the northeastern Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, or Kharkiv in the last 24 hours. Russian forces continued to reduce the Mariupol pocket and conducted several unsuccessful assaults in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts but did not launch any offensive operations around Kherson.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest of Kyiv and further reinforced their defensive positions.
- Russian forces did not conduct offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine and have been unable to solve logistics issues.
- Russian forces continued to make slow but steady progress and shell civilian infrastructure in Mariupol.
- Russian and proxy forces conducted several unsuccessful assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts in the past 24 hours.
- Russia continues to deploy low-quality reserves, including combat-support elements and low-readiness units from the Eastern Military District, to replace losses in frontline units.
- The Ukranian General Staff warned that Russia seeks to conduct a provocation to bring Belarus into the war, but a Belarusian offensive into western Ukraine remains unlikely to occur or succeed if it did.
The Ukrainian General Staff continued to warn on March 20-21 that Russia seeks to bring Belarus into the war. The Ukrainian General Staff reported at midnight local time on March 20 that “there is a high probability” of Russian provocations against Belarus to bring Belarus into the war in Ukraine and create a new axis of advance into western Ukraine.[1] Belarus evacuated its embassy in Kyiv to Moldova on March 19 in response to what it claimed were “unbearable working conditions.”[2] The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) also reported on March 21 that it detained a Belarusian spy who was examining Ukrainian deployments and equipment in Volyn Oblast.[3] Belarusian social media users additionally observed Belarusian military equipment in Rechista (in the Brest region), 7km from the Ukrainian border, on March 21.[4] The Kremlin likely seeks to bring Belarus into the war in Ukraine to reinforce Russian forces, but Belarusian President Lukashenko likely continues to resist Russian pressure. A new Russian or Belarusian axis of advance into Western Ukraine would be unlikely to succeed. Russian and Belarusian forces would face staunch Ukrainian resistance and similar, if not greater, morale and logistics issues to Russian forces elsewhere.
The Ukrainian General Staff stated for the first time on March 21 that Russia is deploying unspecified support units to “direct combat operations” and said that Russia continues to deploy reserves from the Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD).[5] The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) provided further details on conscription measures in the DNR and LNR on March 21. They reported that Russian authorities are increasing the conscription age from 55 to 65 and aggressively recruiting 18-year-old students. The GUR reported conscripts in DNR/LNR forces are supplied with military equipment from the 1970s.[6] Local social media imagery depicted new conscripts equipped with the Mosin-Nagant bolt action rifle—which has not been produced since 1973 and was first produced in 1891.[7]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 21 that Russian forces in Ukraine are in “dire need of repairing and rebuilding damaged weapons and military equipment,” and stated a lack of foreign-made components is slowing production in key Russian military industries.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff also said that Russia is decreasing its use of manned aircraft and replacing them with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), likely due to continuing losses and wear and tear on both airframes and pilots.[9]
Go here to read the rest. Putin is desperately seeking cannon fodder to throw into the fight to gain a victory for him. No attention seems to being given to training and supply. There appears to be no military strategy other than hoping that something turns up to rescue the Russians from their military ineptitude. This will enter the history books as an example of how not to wage a war of aggression.
What? “… Russian authorities are increasing the conscription age from 55 to 65, and aggressively recruiting 18-year-old students?”
It is true that well-trained and fit combat-capable soldiers may operate well into their 40s—but 55 to 65?
Every day Moscow makes less and less sense. This would be a time to declare victory and go home (the way Peter the Great did in his not-so-successful first campaign to capture the Sea of Azov and it’s surrounding Ottoman Turk forts: He later corrected his errors and succeeded, but the first effort was a pretty thorough thrashing).
but 55 to 65?
I am 65 Steve. My only utility now on a battlefield would be to serve as a slow moving target! Once past 50 the ailments of most troops negate any value they have. The Germans found that out in World War II, when they had to form special battalions of overage “retreads” organized by their chief ailments. The Putin regime is not acting in a manner that gives us much confidence in the sanity of the decision makers.
In the interest of full disclosure, I turned 68 this month. Believe it or not, I always attempted to keep myself in good physical condition and avoid putting on weight. I have never smoked.
Now, although I live in a high altitude area (over 5000 feet), and remain physically active, I once had to do about 100-yard (semi) sprint about a year ago when it appeared the neighbors’ horses had escaped (due to fools setting off fireworks).. I was so winded at the end of that, I couldn’t talk for about five minutes. Was I dismayed. Imagine a field of action for me. Target practice.
End of story.
In fact, now that I think of it, I was winded for the better part of 10 minutes.