A few observations:
1. Vance is attempting to chart an independent course away from Trump in the wake of the electoral defeat. He is dreaming if he thinks that this will not raise the ire of the ever mercurial Trump sooner rather than later. If he is doing that deliberately, I think he probably is planning to take some time off from politics after Trump finishes his term, because Trump will likely respond by making certain he does not get the nomination in 2028.
2. As to his substance, it is clear that the war is unpopular, largely due to the failure of the administration to make a good case for it, but also because it is still going on. We live in an age of instant everything, and a war with few casualties on our side, and devastation to Iran, is regarded as dragging on forever since February 28, 2026. It probably would have ended by now, but for the enthusiasm of forces in the White House for negotiations with the Mad Mullahs, negotiations which were always going to be futile. If Vance thinks that negotiations with the current Iranian regime can end the war on terms that will not be a disaster for the US, then he is not as intelligent as I held him to be.
3. Focus on costs and affordability. Perhaps we should bring back Ford’s WIN buttons? (Whip Inflation Now). The Fed is helping rid the system of inflation by higher interest rates, and the process is painful and necessary. Restraining Federal spending would help, and if that is where Vance is going, then he is right. But I doubt if that is where he is going. Becoming a born again budget hawk would be a smart move against a Democrat controlled Congress, but I doubt if he perceives that yet. Winning the Iran war, which we are slowly doing with the embargo, would also help by bringing down the price of gas, but that conflicts with Vance’s anti-war, what a mendacious phrase that is, stance.  Of course Vance avoids talking about the impact of tariffs. That is a sacred cow to Trump and perhaps to Vance also.
4. Put America First. Now we get to the true nub of this piece. Vance is banging the old isolationist drum. Trump, to his credit, has strengthened US power in this hemisphere, something that the Democrat controlled Congress will try to reverse.  Right now I think putting America first is little more than a slogan to Vance and I will be interested to see him attempt, if he does, to add content to it.
5. Change our relationship to Israel. In what way? Our aid to Israel is military aid just under four billion dollars a year. The Israelis, by our law, have to spend that money buying weaponry from the US. Israel has become a regional economic powerhouse with a gdp of around 600 billion a year, dwarfing that of their neighbors. I don’t think they need our aid now, and Trump has declared that it is ending after this year in any case, but I doubt that is why Vance brings it up. I think Vance believes that our Middle East enemies hate us because of our alliance with Israel, and because he wants to play footsie with the deranged anti-Semites on the right, a true exercise in futility and bad politics.
6. I still think that Vance is an intelligent man and can grow into a leader who would be formidable as a candidate for President in the years to come, but this was a poor start in that process.
Vance is Veep because of Tucker. He also sucks up to the Groypers. I don’t see him cutting ties with Tucker or kicking the Groypers out of his bed. I think this could be Vance showing his true colors. Trump isn’t the best judge of character and his two VP choices are proof positive of that fact.
Not only has the administration not made a case for the war with Iran, it hasn’t stated what’s the real endgame. Say what will about Bush 43, at least he outlined what the objectives were in Iraq. It was the post invasion political policy that went wrong in Iraq.