An ominous anniversary considering the current situation. I don’t think the general public is aware of how close we came to nuclear war in 1962. If US and Soviet forces had come into open conflict, I think we would have had no better than a one in four chance of avoiding nuclear war, and open conflict could have broken out many times during that conflict. If Putin were to decide to use nuclear weapons in the Ukraine I think avoiding direct conflict between US and Soviet forces would become almost impossible. I suggest lots of prayer in the coming days.
I’d like to see a few good articles on the similarity(?) between a soviet Cuba on our back door and NATO Ukraine on Russia’s back door.
None, until Putin decided to conquer the Ukraine. This mess is all on him.
… But Latvia, Estonia, Norway (and now Finland) … if NATO has nukes in those countries, there’s room for some comparisons there.
If it had come to war in 1962, the Soviet Union would have been obliterated. SIOP-62 ensured no less. Europe would also have been in a very bad way, if less so than the USSR. We would have taken some shots, but not nation-breaking.
Now? If significant fallout hits Poland, I don’t see how we would avoid the invocation of Article V. Nuclear autumn for the planet would follow.
I don’t think our “elites” want war, but they sure seem to be far too cavalier about the dangers.
For all that this rests on Putin, I dread his successor even more.
We still have a Monroe Doctrine (supposedly) which is not allowed to the Russians. Let us concede that everything is the fault of Putin, and ask how we would react if the roles were reversed and the Russians were in Mexico. It’s time for a peacemaker rather than the Washington war machine marching us towards a nuclear conflict.
For all that this rests on Putin, I dread his successor even more.
I suppose his juniors could be worse in terms of their dispositions, but I’m not seeing obtrusive indications of that.
Nostalgia for the Soviet era is common in Russia, but it’s a signature of older cohorts (if you believe the polls). About half of Putin’s cabinet is under 55. Russians are getting a lesson in what it’s going to cost to attempt to reassemble the USSR; they might just re-order their priorities in response.
We still have a Monroe Doctrine (supposedly) which is not allowed to the Russians. Let us concede that everything is the fault of Putin, and ask how we would react if the roles were reversed and the Russians were in Mexico.
We’re not trying to conquer Mexico. Might just explain why you don’t have antagonistic foreign governments supplying military equipment to Mexico. As a rule, states in the Caribbean basin haven’t sought alliances with hostile foreign powers. You might just consider the possibility that the reason for that is that they have little to gain from it; they have little to gain from it because being adjacent to the United States is not a bad place to be.
The one exception, of course, has been Cuba, the odd example of a country seized and manhandled by a scion of its chatterati (who, regrettably, have been men of extraordinary longevity). Cuba sits there unconquered after 60-odd years, it’s nefarious activities in Latin America and Tropical Africa notwithstanding.
JFK supposedly signed a pledge not to invade Cuba.
If so, I would rip it in shreds and take over Cuba in about four days or less. The Communists would wish they had not been born.
When Yeltsin left the scene, Putin had an opportunity….to build his nation. He could have sought to build the Russian economy, attracted foreign investment, built infrastructure, universities, etc.
Nope.
Back to Russky Mir. Back to dominating Russia’s smaller neighbors. Back to poisoning political adversaries, be they Russian or others. Putin is like a czar of old, just with nukes.
I don’t know if Putin is stupid enough to use nuclear weapons. Maybe he is.
As of now, I am too mad to be afraid. I am royally pissed off at the paleo right who supports Putin. To this day Putin has not returned to Poland its wrecked jetliner from 2010 when over 100 Poles…the President, his wife and other leaders died in a crash near Smensk/Katyn. The Libertarians who care more about money than dead Ukrainian children make me sick.
I am here…because of Russia. Russia occupied Warsaw for more than 120 years and my great grandfather got the hell out of there rather than be conscripted into the czar”s army.
Putin is a nasty creep.
Notice that it takes little to get a Polock riled up about Russia.
JFK supposedly signed a pledge not to invade Cuba
Good point. There’s a good comparison for you Don L … The US told Russia “Get your nukes away from our border and we won’t invade”. Here it is 60 years later, and we’ve kept our promise.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, there were bookoo nukes in Ukraine. Russia said, “Give the nukes to us and we promise we won’t invade”. Ukraine gave them the nukes and Russia took the Crimean Peninsula, and now 20% of the rest of the country.
Didn’t we put our nukes in Turkey and across the Black Sea was the USSR?
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/10/turkey-nukes-incirlik-cold-war.html
Wasn’t that Kruschev’s motivation for Soviet nukes in Cuba?
Not really. Getting out nukes out of Turkey was a face saving measure for Khrushchev. In fact those rockets were obsolete. Khrushchev did not long stay in power after the crisis, being toppled in 64, Thus both Kennedy and his adversary were gone from the stage by the second anniversary of the crisis, although Khrushchev remained alive, which was a positive development in Soviet internal power struggles.
He could have sought to build the Russian economy, attracted foreign investment, built infrastructure, universities, etc.
Putin’s ministries have been fairly successful at inducing quality-of-life improvements in Russia. He had 22 good years. Trouble is, he’s thrown much of it away first by mistreating the Ukraine and then trying to conquer it.