From The Institute For The Study of War:
Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, and George Barros
June 4, 6:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian positions in Luhansk Oblast as well as Russian frontal assaults in Severodonetsk through prudent and effective local counterattacks in Severodonetsk and their defense of the western Siverskyi Donets riverbank. Ukrainian officials reported on June 3 that Ukrainian defenders pushed back against Russian advances in Severodonetsk and are actively hindering Russian advances on Lysychansk from the southwest.[1] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai disagreed with the UK Defense Ministry forecast on June 3 that Russian forces will seize the remaining 10% of the oblast in the next two weeks, claiming that Ukrainian forces have enough reinforcements and equipment to conduct further counterattacks and defend their positions.[2] Haidai noted that Russian forces wrongfully believe in their own successes, enabling Ukrainian defenders to inflict high losses against unsuspecting Chechen units. Pro-Russian milblogger Voenkor Kotyenok Z claimed that Russian forces are unlikely to break through Ukrainian defenses in Lysychansk from Severodonetsk (through continued frontal assaults and an opposed crossing of the Siverskyi Donetsk River) and will likely need to complete the drive from Popasna if they hope to capture Lysychansk.[3] Voenkor Kotyenok Z claimed that Ukrainian forces could prevent Russian river crossings from Severodonetsk and highlighted that Russian forces have not yet secured access to two key highways to Lysychansk.
The Ukrainian government and military are furthermore discussing the battle of Severodonetsk in increasingly confident terms and are likely successfully blunting the Russian military’s major commitment of reserves to the grinding battle for the city. While Russian forces may still be able to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and Ukrainian forces are likely more degraded than Haidai’s statements imply, Ukrainian defenses remain strong in this pivotal theater. The Russian military has concentrated all of its available resources on this single battle to make only modest gains. The Ukrainian military contrarily retains the flexibility and confidence to not only conduct localized counterattacks elsewhere in Ukraine (such as north of Kherson) but conduct effective counterattacks into the teeth of Russian assaults in Severodonetsk that reportedly retook 20% of the city in the last 24 hours. The Ukrainian government’s confidence in directly stating its forces can hold Severodonetsk for more than two weeks and willingness to conduct local counterattacks, rather than strictly remaining on the defensive, is a marked shift from Ukrainian statements as recently as May 28 that Ukrainian forces might withdraw from Severodonetsk to avoid encirclement.[4]
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov reiterated on June 3 that Russia will continue its “special military operation” in Ukraine until Russia achieves all of its objectives.[5] Peskov noted that Russia has already “liberated” many settlements since the start of the operation. Kremlin officials have begun steadily returning to their original claims about the successes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in contrast to previous statements in late May explaining the slow pace of the war.[6] Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu also claimed on June 3 that Russian forces are adopting new unspecified tasks to accelerate the progress of the war.[7] The Kremlin is likely setting conditions to announce some sort of victory in eastern Ukraine while preparing for a protracted war. The Kremlin has not abandoned its maximalist political goals for Ukraine even though it has been forced to revise downward its immediate military objectives.
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces conducted successful local counterattacks in Severodonetsk and Russian progress in direct assaults on the city and wider operations to encircle it remain slow. Ukrainian defenses in eastern Ukraine remain effective.
- Russian forces launched a series of unsuccessful offensive operations southwest of Izyum and in the Lyman area.
- Russian forces continued to defend previously occupied positions around Kharkiv City and launched missile and artillery strikes against Ukrainian defenders.
- Russian forces did not attempt to launch assaults on settlements in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblast but continued to fire at Ukrainian positions throughout southern Ukraine.
- The Kremlin faces rising partisan activity in southern Ukraine despite Russian efforts to restrict movement and telecommunications access.
- Ukrainian officials are continuing negotiations for a prisoner exchange of the captured Mariupol defenders.
Go here to read the rest. Russia lacks the strength to win the war and so does Ukraine, at least now. Hence deadlock.
Besides this report dated above by ISW originally 6/3 of the Ukrainians re-capturing 20% of Severodonetsk, so at that point, controlling half the ruined city, about 12 midnight US EDT, Ukrainian blogger Denys Davidov reports from his sources that the Ukrainian military has essentially retaken the entire city and thrown the Russians back into the forest outside the city limits where they can take cover from UAV’s and forward observers. He says the reason this repulse could be done was because the Ukrainians concentrated fire of heavy (155mm) artillery of various types recently received from the West on high ground near the city of Luhansk, and this placement brought the Russian ground forces well in range of their shelling. Others suggest Ukrainian spotters in the city apparently drew in very accurate fire, even at risk to themselves. Apparently the result was more complete carnage for the Russians. Davidov admits at this point “it is 50:50” that the Ukrainians will continue to control the city— but it appears most of all the Ukrainians just want to cause a further bloodletting for the Russians while the Ukrainians wait for additional arms to reach them.
Also, apparently the much feared general, Aleksandr Dvornikov, the ruthless alleged “Butcher of Syria,” has been apparently sacked by Putin about two days ago, only having been installed as field commander in-chief as recently as April 10th (now if a Russian general lasts 2 months he’s an old timer). Gen. Gennady Zhidko, reports state, is now in charge. Putin also fired at least 3 other top generals and a chief of police in this latest purge. More turmoil at the Russian top. Gen. Zhidko, as mentioned now chief of military ops in Ukraine, had various prior types of experience, mostly as commander of Russian combined arms (usually BTG’s of infantry, armor, and artillery) regiments, and was a chief of staff during the Russian war in Syria. It appears Zhidko was another absent-from-the-front-lines bureaucratic mil leader, like his predecessor. Don’t know how this will work out. Chaos reigns on the Russian side. Yay.