In the last decade several games have examined a shooting (kinetic) war in the western Pacific and Asian littoral pitting the U.S. and allies against China. Occasionally Russian forces cooperate with China.
The Pentagon acknowledges conducting several classified war games in 2020. In March 2021 Yahoo News discussed one of them, a U.S. Air Force war game in the 2030 time frame. The scenario began with “a Chinese biological-weapon attack that swept through U.S. bases and warships in the Indo-Pacific region.” A Chinese military exercise camouflaged “the deployment of a massive invasion force,” which launched a lightning “assault on the island of Taiwan.”
Yahoo quoted U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote: “The (game’s) definitive answer if the U.S. military doesn’t change course is that we’re going to lose fast.” Hinote added “More than a decade ago, our war games indicated that the Chinese were doing a good job of investing in military capabilities that would make our preferred model of expeditionary warfare, where we push forces forward and operate out of relatively safe bases and sanctuaries, increasingly difficult.”
Hinote didn’t discuss America’s loss in ships and planes and killed, wounded and captured personnel. But clearly America lost the simulated military campaign.
If China took Taiwan, then it would have achieved a major CCP goal, one with horrifying real-world military, diplomatic, economic and territorial consequences.
It is foolish to believe an intense war involving China and the U.S. would be confined to the Taiwan Strait and end with Taiwan’s loss. In the scenario, missiles hit regional U.S. bases –meaning Japan, South Korea, Guam, perhaps Australia, Singapore and Hawaii.
Go a step farther. What keeps this western Pacific war from escalating to a war for national survival?
Next week’s column will examine several very uncomfortable consequences of America losing a war to China. One scenario has war erupting before the 2024 U.S. national election.
Go here to read the rest. It has been seventy-six years since we fought a war against powers roughly comparable to ours, and at that time we bestrode the globe like a colossus and had powerful allies. In our coming war with China we match our military against a power that has capabilities, at least on paper, close to ours. At the same time our military is rent with self inflicted wounds caused by this administration’s to impose an official woke ideology and by their tossing out members who will not bow to a vaccine. If I were a high member of the Chinese military, I would advise extreme caution to my government, but I would also tell them that if they truly decide that war against the US is in the national interest of China, the current moment would be the time to strike before the Yankees have an opportunity to recover from the madness which afflicts them.
China with its hypersonic missile and Russia with its Poseidon-6 nuclear powered, nuclear armed torpedos launched from the Massive Belgorod nuclear submarine –> those are first strike weapons. To pre-empitively win, Russia would have to detonate such torpedos off selected major cities on east and west coasts as well as the Gulf of Mexico, and China would have to launch a few hypersonic nuclear armed missiles over the south pole into the heartland, once of which would target Washington, DC. In neither scenario can the incoming weapons be detected. In fact, there could be Poseidon-6 torpedoes idling off NYC, Norfolk / Newport News, LA, etc., even now because they are nuclear and can thus operate indefinitely. Nuke torpedos to take out the coast line cities and hypersonics to take out critical areas in the heart land. Yes, our Ohio class fleet ballistic missile subs could do a retaliatory strike, but if leadership in Washington, DC is taken out, there will be no one to give the order, and Chinese and Russian fast attack subs will hunt the Ohio boomers down. Our aircraft carriers? Those nuke torpedos the Russians have, while a strategic weapon, would make short work of an aircraft carrier fleet. One one ultra-quiet diesel electric submarine operating on the batteries can sneak in and torpedo a carrier, sending it to the bottom. There is no winnable outcome here unless we recover from our wokenness and go back to being what we once were.
From Songfacts – Eve Of Destruction:
[Eve Of Destruction] was written by 19-year-old P.F. Sloan, who was a staff songwriter at McGuire’s label and went on to form The Grass Roots. Sloan wrote on his website: “The song ‘Eve of Destruction’ was written in the early morning hours between midnight and dawn in mid-1964. The most outstanding experience I had in writing this song was hearing an inner voice inside of myself for only the second time. It seemed to have information no one else could’ve had. For example, I was writing down this line in pencil ‘think of all the hate there is in Red Russia.’ This inner voice said ‘No, no it’s Red China!’ I began to argue and wrestle with that until near exhaustion. I thought Red Russia was the most outstanding enemy to freedom in the world, but this inner voice said the Soviet Union will fall before the end of the century and Red China will engage in crimes against humanity well into the new century! This inner voice that is inside of each and every one of us but is drowned out by the roar of our minds! The song contained a number of issues that were unbearable for me at the time. I wrote it as a prayer to God for an answer.
I have felt it was a love song and written as a prayer because, to cure an ill you need to know what is sick. In my youthful zeal I hadn’t realized that this would be taken as an attack on The System! Examples: The media headlined the song as everything that is wrong with the youth culture. First, show the song is just a hack song to make money and therefore no reason to deal with its questions. Prove the 19-year old writer is a communist dupe. Attack the singer as a parrot for the writers word. The media claimed that the song would frighten little children. I had hoped thru this song to open a dialogue with Congress and the people. The media banned me from all national television shows. Oddly enough they didn’t ban Barry. The United States felt under threat. So any positive press on me or Barry was considered un-patriotic. A great deal of madness, as I remember it! I told the press it was a love song. A love song to and for humanity, that’s all. It ruined Barry’s career as an artist and in a year I would be driven out of the music business too.”
https://www.songfacts.com/facts/barry-mcguire/eve-of-destruction
Interesting background, thanks to Quotermeister. What makes the writer’s decision to change the lyrics from “Red Russia” to “Red China” even more poignant, is that the song, written in mid-1964, would have been just prior to China going nuclear, a fact announced to the shock of the world on Oct. 16, 1964. The hatred of Red China became far more deadly as a result.
The USA and its allies against China? What allies? After that Biden (planned?) boondoggle in Afghanistan I doubt we’ll have any allies. Certain not the Aussies who are busy brawling and jailing their own people because of China.
What allies?
Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Australia, South Korea, probably the Philippines. China has done a very good job in ticking off its neighbors.
@Don L, pay attention to what Donald McClarey wrote.
AUKUS – Australia, United Kingdom, United States: Australia will be getting nuclear fast attack submarines from the UK & US. See https://news.usni.org/2021/10/20/panel-pacts-like-aukus-agreement-quad-key-to-countering-china-in-the-pacific.
The QUAD or Quadrilateral Security Dialog – U.S., Japan, India and Australia. See https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/august/secure-indo-pacific-grow-quad. PS, you must be a premium member of the US Naval Institute to read that one.
U.S., U.K. Aircraft Carriers Drill with Japanese Big Deck Warship in the Western Pacific. See https://news.usni.org/2021/10/04/u-s-u-k-aircraft-carriers-drill-with-japanese-big-deck-warship-in-the-western-pacific.
South Korea Plans to Build F-35B Lightning Aircraft Carrier. See https://news.usni.org/2020/08/11/south-korea-plans-to-build-f-35b-lighting-aircraft-carrier.
I could go on, but you get the idea. BTW, for all the latest info, please follow Sub Brief (for Subamrine Briefing) at: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9bMgCQyFNaMPsK9GtzM5dQ
BTW, here’s the latest on the underwater collision of the USS Connecticut SSN-22 in the South China Sea on October 2nd.
https://youtu.be/vB-eSTpvKgs
We still don’t know what happened, but the fiberglass bow section covering the spherical sonar hydrophone array fell off. Many of my shipmates on the USS Jacksonville SSN-699 suspect this:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.reddit.com/r/GODZILLA/comments/a5k6kc/whats_your_opinion_on_the_state_of_this_sub/
PS, that’s submarine humor. Bottom line: lots going on in the South China Sea.
“There is no winnable outcome here unless we recover from our wokenness and go back to being what we once were.“
Well, LQC, under the regime of Josef der Bidensfuhrer don’t expect that to happen.
With regards to wokeness of the military, despite what many may think, this did not happen overnight. It is decades in the making. I have spent the 36 and a half years on Navy bases, eight years as an active duty sailor and the 28 and a half as a civilian employee. I know what I talking about because I have seen it up close. The left has been hard at work turning the military into social engineering laboratory and conservatives have been asleep at the switch. And it’s going to take a massive push in the opposite direction and one’s doing the pushing are going to have to be okay with being hated by a helluva lot of powerful people.
“China has done a very good job in ticking off its neighbors.”
Yep. They have also poured their resources and thrown their power around all of the Pacific Islands controlling ports, mining hubs, tourism and trade for their own gain without any benefit to the locals.
No nation below the equator wants China throwing their money around because they know for every dollar they put into a nations struggling economy, China want the soul of that nation back in return.
I know I’m going to cop flack for saying this but oh well- There is a large Chinese immigrant population in a suburb near us. They shop in the local grocery store. We shop there sometimes also. The way many of the Chinese customers treat the staff is woeful. Mao trained the humanity out of his people.
Cold War 2.0 from the Hoover Institute:
https://youtu.be/E12r-37GZI0
Cold War 2.0 from Sub Brief:
https://youtu.be/UxHWb-yZJ0k
When an apolitical salty old submarine sailor with a foul mouth and an intellectual conservative think-tank agree, then you can bet something is up.
A continuation in the series of updates on the USS Connecticut SSN-22. It is said that she hit an uncharted underwater seamount.
https://news.usni.org/2021/11/01/investigation-concludes-uss-connecticut-grounded-on-uncharted-sea-mount-in-south-china-sea
This may be true. The South China Sea is shallow, and allied subs lurk around near the bottom looking for enemy underwater installation, cable arrays, etc. For example, the Russians have a new underwater modular autonomous reactor they use to recharge battery equipped submarine drones. Seawolf subs are uniquely equipped to investigate such installations and tap into such underwater communication networks. Yes, hitting an unknown seamount is possible. But I think it’s somethings else and the Navy isn’t talking. But if the Captain of the Connecticut gets trash canned, then it wasn’t something else:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameron-aljilani-72517790/
His curriculum vitae or resume is interesting, having started as an hourly supervisor at Disneyland in 96. He joined the Navy in 2000 and became a Commanding Officer in 19 years. My sources from the deep tell me he is good. That’s all I know. I will continue to pray for him & his crew on my Rosary Beeds, because I am sure everyone is sweating bullets with not knowing what the Navy brass up above will decide to do, and the Navy has always had more brass than brains. Things like this ruin careers, even when it’s not your fault.