https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M52K6z0hucM
Europe today is a powder keg and the leaders are like men smoking in an arsenal … A single spark will set off an explosion that will consume us all … I cannot tell you when that explosion will occur, but I can tell you where … Some damned foolish thing in the Balkans will set it off.
Otto von Bismarck, comment made at the Congress of Berlin, 1878
Substitute the Middle East for the Balkans.
It has been amazing how many people I have had to educate today on how WW1 started and why that is relevant to what has happened today in Turkey.
Video has been removed for violating You Tube’s policy on violent depiction. That’s rich.
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Maybe WW I never ended. Maybe we just had lulls punctuated by hot flares of openin fighting.
WWI did never end. Like a treacherous wet firecracker fuse, it sputtered back to life in WWII, and continued to burn through the Cold War, and the current troubles are directly related to nearly a century of ill-informed meddling in the Middle East. That Turkey is a NATO member is proof positive that a malevolent intelligence is behind it all. Even humans can’t be that stupid as to confuse the Black Sea for the North Atlantic.
Nothing that some interfaith dialogue can’t fix.
-Jorge Bergolio
Why was Turkey ever made a NATO member?
Please explain the connection between the assassination that started WWI & today’s assassination. I don’t see any connection–except the possibility of another war–which was there before today’s murder.
Russian action against Turkey would implicate Nato, rather as Austrian action against Serbia involved the two great alliances of Germany-Austria v. Russia and France. Turkey was made a Nato member in order to serve as a choke point against the Soviets in the Mediterranean in the event of war. A big war is coming, and an event like the assassination of the Russian ambassador could well be the match.
the blame for that treacherous fuse has been laid on “nationalism”…unfortunately the leap to larger alliances and federations, up even the EU also does not bode well, either. What can be a solution?
“Why was Turkey ever made a NATO member?”
Because it bordered the Soviet Union and Soviet-occupied Bulgaria, because the Soviets under Stalin made threats against Turkey, and because it made an ideal location for U.S. intelligence assets to collect information on the Soviet Union.
Don, my best guess is that the next big war will be somewhere on a line between Cairo and Dhaka, or possibly even Beijing. Russia will likely be on the periphery, in the same way the continental U.S. was on the periphery in WW2. Russia will be affected, but hopefully not badly so.
The coming civil war in Europe will be small potatoes by comparison.
We should all pray, very much.
“Don, my best guess is that the next big war will be somewhere on a line between Cairo and Dhaka, or possibly even Beijing. Russia will likely be on the periphery, in the same way the continental U.S. was on the periphery in WW2. Russia will be affected, but hopefully not badly so.”
“The coming civil war in Europe will be small potatoes by comparison.
We should all pray, very much.”
TomD, can you explain your thinking in more depth, please?
Also, it seems that there is no end to the damage resulting from the US “wars” (i.e. Mostly needless, incompetent Meddling) in the places like Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc.
If so, it is likely the Soviets and USA become stronger allies in the fight against the radical islamists.
“If so, it is likely the Soviets and USA become stronger allies in the fight against the radical islamists.”
Only if U.S. neo-liberals stop treating Russia as a whipping boy, and forgive Russians for destroying the Communist fantasy. Perhaps we’ll have to wait for the prisons to open in Cuba and Venezuela for that.
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Teacher, I’ve got to go teach a few classes. I’ll be back in a few hours to answer your post.
Putin is a dangerous dictator and may well set off World War III. Trump’s idea that we can work with his regime is delusional.
I’m as worried about that as you … but I see the question at hand being: do they join forces to fight a common enemy … or do they spend more time fighting among themselves. I’m not delusional enough to suggest it won’t be a mixture of both.
I would question just how ‘dangerous’ Putin is. I doubt he is a Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Castro, etc. Look at his first comments regarding the ambassador’s murder. They were directed at the destruction of the Islamic State rather than at Turkey. That may come later, of course, especially if Turkey doesn’t swiftly apologize and compensate (which could easily happen under Erdogan). Russia and Turkey have already been shooting at each other outside Aleppo and it has not escalated, in fact Turkey backed down.
Putin’s biggest threat is as the prime enabler of Iran.
Christian Teacher:
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Iran is getting nuclear weapons (thank you Barack), wants to obliterate Israel and conquer Bahrain
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Saudi Arabia wants to kill all the Shias and has bankrolled the Pakistani nuclear program.
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Pakistan has more nuclear weapons than Britain and hates India. A number of years ago a Pakistani general with ISI connections told journalist Fred Kaplan that he looked at the poverty in his country and said that someone should just push a button amd make all that suffering go away.
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The present Indian government is largely controlled by the RSS paramilitary organization, which was modeled in the 1930’s on the Nazis. They are actively persecuting Christians and Muslims. Their “anti-beef” policies have thrown millions of Muslims out of work (personally I think the jihad-poverty link is very weak, but this might be the exception). Some RSS radicals see China and not Pakistan as the main threat, and have advocated developing a first strike capability against China.
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So, my thought about Russia is that it will be affected by what is brewing in these countries, but will be directly affected only if Iran turns on Russia.
“Also, it seems that there is no end to the damage resulting from the US “wars” (i.e. Mostly needless, incompetent Meddling) in the places like Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc.”
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This is so small in comparison to what could happen in a ‘big’ war in that part of the world. But I would agree, since the 1991 end of Desert Storm it has been totally needless and incompetent (Iraq should have been totally occupied in 1991). My understanding is that the idea of regime change in Syria originated with Hillary Clinton, she sold Obama on it, and a half million dead was the result. We can add that to the 800,000 dead Rwandans as the real fruits of the Clintons.
“I would question just how ‘dangerous’ Putin is.”
Ask his own “subjects” or the people of the Ukraine, Syria or Georgia. Putin is a KGB thug who imagines himself a Tsar.
https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2016/russia
No doubt Putin will provide Trump one of his first international tests. We shall see how he does.
“Ask his own “subjects” or the people of the Ukraine, Syria or Georgia. Putin is a KGB thug who imagines himself a Tsar.”
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Agreed, at least on Russia, Ukraine and Georgia – but on the flip side neither Ukraine nor Georgia is completely subjugated to Russia. Syria is different: if the Russians were as careful about where they drop their bombs as we are, then they would be morally in the better position. We have continued to arm “moderates” who then defect to the Islamic State. Russia cannot be accused of that.
The young man who shot the ambassador was not playing a huge board game of Risk. He is an example of “politics are local” and personal. Brexit, Trump etc.
There are two kinds of nationalism– interestingly one grows out of subsidiarity and expanded local identity, unwillingness to be subjugated. The other grows out of the famous “will to power”
All of these actors in this century’s powder keg are one of those two. US involvement Is different, a kind of calling felt in our national identity now, since WW1.
The Turkish government is contending the assassin was an affiliate of the Gulen cult. So far, the Russian government has had a circumspect response. I suppose we’ll know in the next 60 days, but I don’t expect this will lead to much of anything.
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Putin himself is, by all appearances, a stone-cold Machiavellian in the international sphere, a machine boss at home. Any dangers which emanate from him likely have boundaries.