As usual, TAC will have an open thread for election night. In regard to the presidential contest, most of the polls show Clinton with a three to four point advantage. However, two of the most accurate polls from 2012, the Los Angeles Times Daybreak Poll and IDB, show Trump ahead by three and two points respectively. Additionally, while national polls were placing Clinton ahead yesterday, most electoral college projections showed Trump’s position improving, with him nipping at Clinton’s heels. This really does not make much sense, but that is par for this skunk-fest of an election. My hypothesis is that the polls have been off because of an inability of most them to accurately gauge Trump’s support. We shall all find out soon enough.
Things to watch for tonight: If Trump takes Florida and Ohio he will likely need just one or two blue states to win, assuming that Iowa and the Romney states from 2012 fall to him. There will be likely a titanic contest in the upper Midwest tonight over Michigan, Wisconsin and, perhaps, Minnesota. The Dems also seem worried about Pennsylvania. If Trump flips one of these states, than he can likely start calling himself Mr. President. New Hampshire and Maine 2 could be absolutely critical if the contest is close and Trump does not flip one of the states in the Upper Midwest or the Keystone State. In such a scenario, assuming that Trump takes Florida, North Carolina and Ohio, they set him up to win if he takes Nevada or Colorado. Additionally, keep your eyes on Oregon. If there is one state I think might shockingly flip from blue to red, in defiance of all the polls, it would be that one.
In regard to the Senate, it could be a nail biter to see which party controls it. In the House the GOP is expected to hold, but the margin in the House could be critical over the next two years.
It promises to be an exciting election night if not an edifying one! As always, put your comments in the comboxes.
Updates:
All times are Central Standard Time
6:30 AM-Just got back from voting. One of the perks of living in a small town is little waiting in order to vote. It seemed to me as if the polls were less busy than in 2012 and 2008.
5:05 PM-First polls close in an hour. Lots of exit poll chatter that I won’t bore you with due to my conviction that exit polls tend to be unreliable.
6:00 PM- Vermont called for Clinton. Indiana and Kentucky called for Trump. Too close to call: Virginia, Georgia and South Carolina. Georgia and South Carolina being too close to call is not good news for Trump.
6:30 PM-West Virginia called for Trump. North Carolina and Ohio too close to call. Republican Senator Portman of Ohio has won re-election.
6: 45 PM-Go here to see the latest vote tallies for states whose polls have closed.
6:50 PM-South Carolina called for Trump.
7:00 PM-Missouri, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee called for Trump. Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and Massachusetts called for Clinton. Democrat pickup in Illinois in the Senate where Tammy Duckworth unseats Mark Kirk.
7:07 PM-Rhode Island called for Clinton.
7:15 PM-Marco Rubio has won re-election to the Senate from Florida.
7:25 PM-Young beats Bayh for the Senate seat in Indiana. An important victory in the Republican attempt to retain control of the Senate.
7:30 PM-Alabama called for Trump.
7:35 PM-The Republicans will retain control of the House.
7:50 PM -One can never be sure about anything when it comes to Presidential elections in Florida, but it looks like Trump is going to have a narrow win.
8:00 PM-New York is called for Clinton. Donald Trump sweeps the states of the Great Plains and Texas.
8:05 PM-Arkansas called for Trump.
8:22 PM-Connecticut called for Clinton.
8:40 PM-New Mexico called for Clinton and Louisiana is called for Trump.
8:57 PM-Virginia called for Clinton.
9:00 PM-Montana called for Trump.
9:10 PM-Burr, the Republican Senator in North Carolina has won re-election. Likely that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate.
9:25 PM-Ohio called for Trump. Colorado called for Clinton.
9:30 PM-Florida called for Trump.
9:45 PM-The New York Times now projects that Trump has a 92% chance of winning the Presidency. Right on cue North Carolina is called for Trump.
9:50 PM-Republican Senator Ron Johnson has won re-election in Wisconsin. Grand! One of my favorite conservative senators!
10:00 PM-California, Washington and Hawaii called for Clinton. Idaho called for Trump.
10:10 PM-Utah called for Trump.
10:25 PM-Oregon called for Clinton.
10:30 PM-Wisconsin called for Trump. That is the blue state he needed. Iowa called for Trump. I’m calling it. Trump is going to be the 45th President of these United States. In the year of Brexit and the Cubs, the improbable was probable. The ladies have been waiting to sing this song in celebration of the defeat of Hillary Clinton:
10:40 PM-Georgia is called for Trump.
11:24 PM-Nevada called for Clinton.
11:40 PM-My bride’s reaction to the election results:
12:07 AM-Maine called for Clinton, but not Maine 2 with its one electoral vote.
12:25 PM-Roy Blunt, Republican Senator from Missouri has won re-election.
12:27 PM-Pat Toomey has won re-election in Pennsylvania. Hurrah! It is certain that the Republicans have retained control of the Senate.
12:50 PM-Pennsylvania is called for Trump. Trump will have at least 290 electoral votes, and quite possibly he will end up north of 300.
With that, I will be turning in. Much analysis tomorrow and in the days to come. The Democrats had a very bad night, and the Republicans find themselves in control of the Congress and the Presidency, although admittedly Trump makes an odd sort of Republican. I will end this night’s blog coverage with this observation that I have made on other election nights:
After the 2008 elections many on the Left, giddy with victory, predicted that in future the Republican party would be only a rump party of the South, doomed to wander in the political wilderness for 40 years. Typical of this commentary was a piece written by frequent commenter Morning’s Minion:
Of course this commentary betrayed a fundamental misunderstanding of American political history. In that history there are no final victories and no final defeats. The great issue in contention since the days of the Federalists and the Republicans, the role of government in the lives of a free people, has remained with us no matter what names the two parties call themselves. When a party dies, the Whig party for instance, a new party steps forward to carry on the fight. The parties themselves shift and change, but the large issues involved tend, at bottom, to remain the same. Kipling wrote long ago:
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
That is sound advice in American politics, no matter if an election is good for your party or bad for your party.
Even more interesting than the silent Trump voter potential is the non-scientific indicator of missing Hillary signs. Where are they? Are her supporters so ashamed of her that they dare not admit it in public? This, even here in deep blue Obama Catholics’ Connecticut.
We shall soon see if Soros and the pro-UN crowd won this election, or the little people seeking a return to some semblance of self-rule.
I voted. Rolled out of bed 0600 hours NY time. Dressed. Walked dog with Warden. Voted. Walked home.
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One person with God is the majority.
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Viva Cristo Rey!
If things go badly today, for four years my only political comment simply will be, “Lock her up.”
I recently saw a datum to the effect that response rates to public opinion surveys have fallen to 10%. The term ‘robust’ is used by statisticians to describe surveys from which you can derive reliable inferences. A 67% response rate is ‘robust’. A 10% response rate is…well it’s better than Eppie Lederer’s mailbag. It’s no wonder the polls are all over the place. No clue what happens this evening.
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Don, I’m guessing your polls were less busy than in ’08 and ’12 because more people voted early? I did (last Friday). Suffice it to say that there was not just one but three dumpster fire level races on my ballot: POTUS, U.S. Senate (Kirk vs. Duckworth — those of you not from IL, look it up) and State Comptroller (battle of the Rauner tool vs. the Madigan tool — if you’re from IL you get it, if not, it’s too complicated to explain) for which I couldn’t bring myself to vote for either major party candidate (went write in on all of them). Then the majority of local level races were people running unopposed. I almost had to wonder why I even bothered — mainly for the sake of reelecting our local GOP Congresscritter (Rodney Davis) who seems like a reasonable enough guy.
Perhaps they did vote early Elaine, but voting is so not a hassle in Dwight, that I doubt if Early voting was up much this year if at all.
I left Kirk v. Duckworth blank. In regard to the Presidency I voted for Trump, but not without a fair amount of misgivings. I voted for the Rauner tool over the Madigan tool.
“I recently saw a datum to the effect that response rates to public opinion surveys have fallen to 10%.”
My house was polled several times. My wife always deals with it as I lack the patience, especially for the odious robo polls.
From my suburban Chicago perspective I believe the Dems are very nervous based on the deceptive and vile, negative campaigning.
I’m not in the military, I’m long out of school, and I’m not in a nursing home (for now), so I don’t cast postal ballots. Given the condition of voting registers, all the convenience voting is begging for fraud. (Over and above mass amnesties to put felons on the rolls, a la Gov. McAuliffe).
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About a half-dozen years ago, there was an article (in Political Affairs Quarterly, IIRC) by a computer science professor making the argument against the use of digital technology in voting, the case being that it diminishes public confidence in the integrity of the ballot. People who make political decisions seem to never get it right.
A long-time friend posted on Facebook, “I voted early and yet the ads keep coming.” Quick, somebody read the Constitution!
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The legal system is utterly corrupt. The rule of law is dead. We no longer live in a constitutional republic.
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If God forbid things go sour, my long-term strategy will be to ignore illegal executive orders, unconstitutional laws, reckless regulations and rules; and throw a desultory sabot in the works at every opportunity.
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Lock her up.
Just to clarify, I would have voted for Trump if there were any possibility that the IL electoral vote was in play and would be decisive. Since that has not been the case I saw no compelling reason to force myself to vote for Trump. I wrote in McMullin since he was the most acceptable of the write in options that would actually count on an IL ballot.
Fr. Frank, a call’em like ya see’em knight.
http://spiritdaily.org/blog/uncategorized/priest-puts-aborted-baby-on-altar
This is the foundation folks!
All other pressing issues, and there are many, pale in comparison.
This is the pivotal moment in America, blessings or curses.
For 43 years we’ve swept the fetus’ under the rug.
If they do not get attention this political cycle, in my estimation, it’s over.
How long can innocent blood be split and not be rectified by Almighty God? Has Mary, Our Lady been holding back the mighty arm of Justice? How long can she hold it back.
Her statues have cried tears and blood, the approved phenomenon’s, for many years.
Father Frank hits it right between the eyes.
Trump may have lied when he speaks of backing pro-life issues…but I’m voting for him, and hoping he keeps his word.
If Trump takes the states you mention, he needn’t take PA or any of the upper Midwest states to get to 270. Either NH or CO would do the trick. Whether that would be a good trick or bad trick is hard to know.
At my polling place, it was maybe a little lighter than 2012, but it was hard to compare because the line was so much slower. We used to have about 20 voting machines. Now we have about 20 booths to fill out a paper ballot, and then another line to submit the ballot into 2 scanners. I guess that’s an improvement in terms of being able to verify the results, but it was poorly implemented.
“If Trump takes the states you mention, he needn’t take PA or any of the upper Midwest states to get to 270.”
If Trump takes the Romney states plus Iowa, Ohio and Florida he gets up to 259. Plus Colorado gives him 268, while plus New Hampshire gives him 263. Flipping Michigan or Wisconsin would do the trick by themselves. (Wisconsin would result in a tie of 269-269, but Trump would win it in the House.)
“Whether that would be a good trick or bad trick is hard to know.”
If Trump wins tonight Mike, that will be the question!
“If Trump wins tonight Mike, that will be the question!”
Correct. There’s no question about what sort of a trick Hillary will be.
You’re right, Don. My math was based on the current RCP no-toss-up map, which not only counts the states you mentioned, but also includes NV (6) and ME (1) in the Trump column. If that map is correct (huge “if” for all the reasons you note), then Trump is at 266 and needs only either NH or CO.
Voted this morning, for whatever it’s worth in a state with NYC stuck in the heel. GO TRUMP/MAGA/LockHerUp etc. and don’t stop praying no matter what.
As an aside, I believe the volunteers at the Victory Town Hall here in upstate NY are the sweetest ladies in America.
The line at the polling place where I go in South Carolina right across the border from Charlotte was crowded at 11 am – line out the door, 40 minute wait. A few blacks, not many. Equal number of women (soccer moms) and men. I suspect the women and blacks are voting Hillary. Met a transplant from New Jersey. We have many of those who fled the consequences of the failed policies of the liberals whom they voted into office, and now they come down here to do the same again.
“Wisconsin would result in a tie of 269-269, but Trump would win it in the House.”
I would think that if Trump won NH in that scenario he’d also win Maine CD 2 which would give him exactly 270.
My brother said they asked him if he owned a gun before he voted, at the pollinf place?
Do any of you know if this is legal? the state involved is NY.
Can one not be allowed to vote if they refuse to answer?
Karl, did they ask him whether he “owned” a gun or merely whether he “had” a gun, meaning, on his person at that time? A polling place might be legally a gun free/ no firearms zone.
I haven’t voted yet. Our parish has Eucharistic Adoration all day because of this election. My holy hour begins at 3 and then I will go vote before coming back for mass .
I heard Martha McCallum interview Trump today. She pushed him just a bit about saying he would accept the outcome and then switched to “how will you try to heal our divided country. He answered a few times about the practical things he would do– jobs etc. she kept not hearing that as not an answer for helping to heal. I wondered if it was just that sometimes women and men talk past each other. I wondered if women would want words of healing and reconciliation, while men might want action as an answer. I won’t expect him to be a golden tone orator like Obama is capable of, but maybe people can begin to see how hollow the silky words can be.
Sorry, Don. Under cross examination via text my brother inddicated that his text gave me the wrong impression. He had heard someone who worked at the polls ask another person, who was likely a friend of the person who asked.
Karl
karl
I suspect that Elaine’s question is the question posed by the volunteer.
Concealed Carry is popular in many of the States…..hummm can’t imagine why…wink wink nudge nudge.
I wrote in McMullin since he was the most acceptable of the write in options that would actually count on an IL ballot.
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Well, it’s up to you, Elaine. If I’m going to protest something, don’t hand me a sign that says “Mitch McConnell is the greatest thing since sliced bread”. John Anderson was intense, well informed, articulate, and classy. Ross Perot was accomplished and jabbing the parties on an important issue (in between bouts of paranoia about his daughter’s wedding). George Wallace was at least amusing (“If one of those longhairs lies down in front of mah car when ahm president…”_. This trio are the lamest set of third party candidates in history.
I wondered if it was just that sometimes women and men talk past each other.
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I cannot recall an occasion in my life when I was speaking to the distaff side and we weren’t talking past each other. At least when the notion discussed was more complicated than ‘pass the salt’.
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My brother said they asked him if he owned a gun before he voted, at the pollinf place?
I guess that depends on whether Hildebeast or Trump wins.
Anzlyne – I voted in Maryland; you did something meaningful.
So CNN said that historically college educated Americans favor Republicans. I have never heard that before. I wonder how, therefore, the Republicans have the reputation of being idiots while the Democrats, who, I guess, didn’t have the appeal to college educated Americans, are the smart ones?
The media tend to be Democrats which explains the primary source of a lot of misconceptions about Republicans.
My bride and I voted early this afternoon in West Central New Hampshire. A middle-aged fellow of our acquaintance who is politically involved in town said that never in his life did he see so many registrations of middle aged people who had never voted before. I thought of the saying attributed to Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto ” We have awakened a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve”. I should like to hope such is analogous to the awakening of the working classes so long abandoned by the Democratic Party. “Pray, hope and don’t worry” We win in the end.
I can’t find anywhere that FL has been officially called for Trump. What is the source for that call? Fox hasn’t had the nerve to do it, yet.
The New York Times called it for Trump.
“This trio are the lamest set of third party candidates in history.”
Except when Johnson is stoned & giving live interviews to CNN.
Donald,
I saw that the NY Tines said they are guessing he will win by a razor thin margin. One of my FB friends said that Trump must win by 2% in order to not have a recount in FL (HORROR OF HORRORS!! Having flashbacks of Bush/Gore!!). Right now, Fox is showing Trump as being 0.5% shy of beating Killary by 2 full percentage points.
Fox has also now called Florida for Trump. The gap is too large in Florida for any recount to make a difference.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JubMsnlhVV4
Praise God from Whom all blessings flow!
Nov. 8th, 2016 – 8:19 pm PST/11:19 EST, and the Clinton Campaign HQ’s look like a gathering for a funeral.
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I/we don’t know yet the final outcome, but it looks like they know something that the rest of us do not know.
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DJT has now won OH, NC, FL and looks poised to win IA, WI, MI and NH, as well as the “traditional” red states—and a few to boot. That would block a Clinton advance to 270 electoral votes. He already has 222.
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Could it be?…
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My brother and I are on our 4th Rosary tonight alone. He says he is praying for the USA, for whom Dad gave 20 years in the Army in WW2 and after. He is autistic but has a direct channel to the Almighty.
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Fear this, Og, King of Bashan. You, too, Sihon, and ye Amorites (PS. 135:10-11)
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
The above link from the NYT of all places, has Trump as likely winner as of 11:20 PM New York Time. The page is all tricked out with dials, graphs, and state by state status. Drudge Report caries headline: “Trump on Verge of Presidency; World in Shock”. Link here: http://www.drudgereport.com/
My bride won’t turn on news; may go to bed hoping to awake to sunny Clinton-Free morning. Pray assiduously.
Can you just see Obama having to turn govt over to a man whom he despises? Oh Lord, make it so!
Those ladies don’t look fat to me.
Interesting that none of the networks have called Wisconsin yet.
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Must mean something
What is up with NH not reporting their vote totals? Exactly HOW MUCH longer did they keep some of their polls open.
Fox has called Wisconsin.
On a completely different topic: That Rohirrim take the field at the Pelenor scene is my favorite.
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It’s also the one that does the most violence to Tolkien’s text.
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At least until Phillipa Boyens and Fran Walsh rewrote The Hobbit for Peter Jackson.
I figured Fox is where you got it from.
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The networks aren’t ready to confirm what we already know.
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Denial being the first stage of grief and all that.
Pure utter shock for them tonight Ernst. Now if they had been reading TAC for the past few months they would have been prepared for this!
A shadow crossed my mind- we shouldn’t underestimate a Sotos scorned. We must keep praying