Electoral Tsunami Coming
Three recent polls indicate what a wipeout the Democrats are facing in November:
Republican candidates have jumped out to a record-setting 12-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, August 15, 2010. This is the biggest lead the GOP has held in over a decade of Rasmussen Reports surveying.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. Support for Republicans is up two points from the previous week, while support for Democrats dropped three points.Republicans have led on the Generic Congressional Ballot since June of last year, and their lead hasn’t fallen below five points since the beginning of December. Three times this year, they’ve posted a 10-point lead. Prior to this survey, GOP support since June 2009 has ranged from 41% to 47%. Support for Democrats in the same period has run from 35% to 40%.
-This is our first poll of the race explicitly surveying likely voters and given the considerably greater enthusiasm on the Republican side we’re seeing an electorate in the state that voted for John McCain by a point in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama’s actual 10 point victory in the state.
The biggest key to the race is probably Obama’s considerably fallen popularity. His approval rating stands at only 40% with 55% of voters disapproving of him, one of the biggest declines from 2008 performance we’ve seen for him anywhere in the country. Part of Obama’s low numbers is a reflection of the Republican trending voter pool in the state this year, but there are also more people who voted for Obama but disapprove of him now in Pennsylvania than there are most places. Our national poll last week found only 7% of Obama voters are now unhappy with the job he’s doing but in Pennsylvania the figure is 15%. Toomey has a 14 point lead with those disaffected Obama voters, showing the extent to which those voters moving away from Obama are moving away from the Democratic Party in general.
An economy in the tank, an unpopular President and a public opposed to virtually every major domestic initiative of this administration. The 2010 midterms may be the most devastating since 1894.