I used to think that I knew a lot about politics in this country until I began listening to Rchard Baris and Robert Barnes. Watch the above video. They far surpass me in granular political knowledge of the states down below the county level. Before the Hunter Biden Ukraine e-mails I thought we were heading to a Trump electoral college victory similar to 2016. Now I think Trump will do as well as he did in the electoral college in 2016 and far better in the popular vote. We still have slightly over half a month and events come fast and furious this year, and things could change, but that is how I see the race currently.
I know Trump is polarizing, but I just can’t imagine he’s so polarizing that people would stand in line to early- vote for Joe Biden.
Maybe that’s a failure of imagination.
They apparently are early voting for Joe.
And while the polls are probably off a bit, it will be the most catastrophic polling failure ever if Trump betters 2016.
I can conjure up narrow win scenarios for him. But holding rallies in Iowa and Georgia does not suggest the fundamentals of the race going Trump’s way.
Coronavirus is his Achilles heel, and the campaign’s messaging on it is nearly nonexistent.
They are early voting for the Democrats Dale because the Dems have stressed early voting by mail while the Republicans stress on day voting. The Dems in the battleground states are not running up the numbers they need for victory. The video does an excellent job of explaining this. Like the Bourbons of old, the Polling industry has forgotten nothing about 2016 and learned nothing from it. Linked below is another good video on the subject:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=jf-p0vXvyAA&feature=emb_logo
The Georgia stop was to help the two GOP Senators up just as the Iowa stop was to help Ernst.
Without Coronavirus Trump would be looking at Obama level numbers for himself from 2008.
Tim Pool
@Timcast
·
29m
And Trump still beat Biden
Trump 4.5M Streamed network views
Biden 2.8M Streamed network views
A Democrat sensing 2016 Deja Vu all over again:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/columns/eric-zorn/ct-column-trump-biden-clinton-polls-retrospective-zorn-20201015-e4siggpw4vfnbiwddne5az75zu-story.html
I’m not optimistic.
Trump ought to be running away with this. And maybe he is.
I’m not optimistic.
Neither am I Art, just looking at the facts that the mainstream polling companies have missed and drawing conclusions.
Trump has transitioned to two a day rallies. His last week of the campaign he will likely go to three a day rallies as he did during the 2016 campaign in the final stretch.
Hopeful sign?
What I fear the most is what I have feared all along – the massive amount of fraud that is going to take place.
Professor Helmut Norpoth, whose model is based on the early primary election results and has correctly predicted presidential election results in all but 2 cases since 1912, gives Trump a 91 percent change of winning. However, the two times his model failed were the 1960 and 2000 elections. Both were razor thin and we know now that JFK was won with the help of LBJ and Mayor Daley cheating in Texas and Chicago. The cheating will be widespread this year and not just in 2 states.
Now I think Trump will do as well as he did in the electoral college in 2016 and far better in the popular vote.
From your keyboard to God’s . . . monitor?
What I fear the most is what I have feared all along – the massive amount of fraud that is going to take place.
Trump isn’t going to allow them to cheat and win and I, and a lot of other people, are going to back him on this. This would be a very bad election for the Democrats to attempt to steal. If they are wise they will not try to do so.
More reason to hope?
via Ace of Spades, who writes:
If we believe polls, then its been well established that Republicans have a far higher preference for election day voting than Democrats. Thus if we believe that party affiliation in early voting is an accurate measure of who is ahead (which it really isn’t due to the number of independents) it should follow that any state where voter registration is ahead on the Republican side, tied, or only very slightly to the dem side (let’s say less than 5 points to the dem side) is a lock for President Trump.
If that is true, then the following battleground states are a lock:
Michigan (dead heat in registration)
Ohio (republicans up by 4 points)
Georgia (dems up by 4)
Wisconsin (dems up by 2)
But I honestly don’t know how helpful early registration numbers are at all. For example, the dems are up by 20 in Oklahoma, up by 29 in Kentucky, and up by 19 in Utah. Does anyone seriously think that the president isn’t going to carry those states? If you do, you have to go against the polls that doomsayers are citing because he’s well ahead in all of those states.
Here’s something else to consider:
at this time last year Clinton was polling better than Biden is in Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. But Trump won all of those states even with the worse polling numbers.
Always fight with a song in your heart and hope:
“The great Gaels of Ireland are the men that God made mad,
For all their wars are merry, and all their songs are sad.”
My people!
Still more of the same:
Although I suppose they’re all just whistling past the graveyard, so to speak.
This is very heartening, although it must have caused Newsweek readers to gnash their teeth:
Just in: final FL voter reg. data. Since this March’s primary, here are each party’s net gains:
GOP: 344,465
Dem: 197,821
NPA/Other: 197,818
Compare to the same period in ’16:
GOP: 274,207
Dem: 307,961
NPA/Other: 220,857
Trump’s ’16 FL margin: 112,911 votes
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 16, 2020