As in 2016, the polls are missing the strength of Donald Trump, particularly in the Upper Midwest and Pennsylvania. Pollster Richard Baris and attorney Robert Barnes in the above video explain why the polls are wrong, and why it is quite likely that Trump will take the states he took in 2016 and perhaps add Minnesota and New Hampshire in his columns. That their take is accurate can be judged by where the campaigns are spending their money and their time. If Biden had anything like the lead that most of the polls are claiming, we would see them fighting for states like Texas and Ohio. Nope. The Biden campaign emphasis is all on trying to claw back the blue states won by Trump in 2016.
What’s Going On Behind the Polls
- Donald R. McClarey
Donald R. McClarey
Cradle Catholic. Active in the pro-life movement since 1973. Father of three, one in Heaven, and happily married for 43 years. Small town lawyer and amateur historian. Former president of the board of directors of the local crisis pregnancy center for a decade.
Good analysis. I too am betting the polls are wrong about Trump. Polls after all are a political tool used as weapons to discourage Republicans from voting.
There is a recent poll being touted in MN saying that Biden is 9 points ahead. It is by the Siena College Research Institute. If you go to their site you will see at the end of each their articles that “The data was weighted by party, age, race/ethnicity, education, region, gender and voter likelihood, a computed score that combines voter history, stated voter likelihood and modeled turnout by respondent. ” However, unlike most polling agencies, they don’t even bother to list how they weighted the data. They only suggest that you call up one guy there by phone if you want more information.
Very likely dems are being weighted in the sample to above their actual representation by at least 10 percentage points. But since they don’t release the polling data it’s quite possible that they are oversampled by 20 or 30 or more percentage points. Hell, it’s possible that the polling agency literally just made up the numbers, though I doubt they went that far. It’s too easy to lie in the weighting that you don’t need to make things up from whole cloth.
As for the tweet in the post “NE Minnesota” (aka The Iron Range or The Arrowhead region) has long been a democrat stronghold. It’s been a common pattern over the last 30 years for the Twin Cities, Rochester and the Iron Range to go democrat, while the entire rest of the state goes Republican. If the numbers in the Iron Range are that far Trump in the stated poll results, it means that his so incredibly popular that they cannot spin the numbers. I don’t see how that tracks with Biden supposedly dominating the whole state.
In New England I’d like to see Trump take not only NH but little RI and Maine, it’s not a reach – there’s no excitement for Biden Harris and the constant drone of orange man bad is wearing thin. If Biden voters stay home, it’s done.
Massachusetts ? OMG that would be Awesome!! But while there are hundreds and hundreds of Trump signs in the suburbs and hardly a Biden sign to be seen, Boston voters will almost assuredly drag us down.
I live in New England. My wife had lunch with 3 co-workers recently. All of them had voted for Hillary 4 years ago, and all said they would be voting for Trump. The funny thing is, their main motive was the Green tax proposals.
“Southern Minnesota” likely means Rochester (Mayo Clinic) and, I’m sorry to say, Mankato (college town).
The biggest problem with Minnesota is same day registration. It’s an invitation to rampant voter fraud.