Just to keep track of the nonsense that has wrecked our economy and generally made our politicians run around as if their fool heads were on fire, each day I publish the corona virus total death toll in the US based upon the latest data I can find. A single death is an immense tragedy if you love the person. However, we are not talking about love, but rather public policy, which should always involve a sober analysis of risk and cost. Please recall that in a bad normal flu year our death toll in the US can be as high as 90,000.
Note: this will be a total death toll since the beginning of this bad farce, and not a daily toll. As of the beginning of April 17 the death toll is 34,641. May the Perpetual Light shine upon them.
The death count today for discerning a pattern is worthless as it includes people suspected of dying from covid-10 whose corpse was not tested for the virus. A move is afoot to make the body count as high as possible, as the politicians have to justify to an increasingly restive population why they wrecked their economy, the best in my 63 years, and threw 22 million people, thus far, out of work. Ah, sweet mendacity, ever the handmaiden of politicians!
Beware conspiracy theories Don; they usually don’t pan out too well.
Basic logic tends to be
1 Form conclusion
2 Find data that supports it
3 Dismiss data that doesn’t
I would imagine some people who die of the flu each year, didn’t really die of the flu.
Flu deaths are always estimated Ben. In regard to the Black Sniffles we have immense resources being brought to bear and there is no excuse to not scientifically ascertaining whether someone who died had the virus.
Ben & Don: When 4000 out of 10,000 deaths are “estimated” as being due to covid-19 (rough proportions for NYC, 15th April), that is too large a proportion to yield meaningful statistics. Gleaning from the little I recall from my two years graduate work in Statistics at Penn State (post retirement), I’d say that error bar is too big.
Quarantine China.
Take CT, LA, MI, NJ, NY out of the stats. See what the USA really looks like.
Think People.
Who benefits from wildly exaggerating the perceived impacts of the China Murder Virus? Hint: The snakes exaggerating the perceived impacts.
Don’t get me wrong. I take precautions. But, even a 70 year-old with asthma like me has a 95% of surviving if I ever (statistically unlikely) develop symptoms. I’ll take those odds.
From a JPMorgan Chase study: Italy – the mean age of patients dying of COVID-19 was 78 years old and 96.5% of deaths occurred with co-morbidities—mostly heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, and chronic renal failure. Notably, 61% of deaths occurred in individuals with three or more co-morbidities. I bet similar features are present in the US. In the US, obesity is a major contributor to younger, China Murder Virus deaths.
David Azerrad, “Many Americans have also shown themselves to be uncharacteristically passive as state and local governments restrict civil liberties, release prisoners, and refuse to prosecute burglaries and other property crimes. It is a dispiriting thought that the legacy of the coronavirus could be a stronger state, a more sheepish and fearful population, and a ruling class even more dedicated to globalism.”
T Shaw: unfortunately many states are using the CDC guidelines in giving death statistics. So you may not get a true estimate even deleting all the population hot spots.
I’m trying a new statistic: looking at the recovery/death ratio. For South Korea it’s been staying steady around 34. For the US, before CDC guidelines, between 1.5 and 1.9 (the latter figure for April 14th). I’m looking at the same eliminating NYC; the number is around 3, comparable to European countries on the descending daily case curve.
Ben, one has to consider whether is is more dangerous to believe in a conspiracy theory or to believe that conspiracies don’t exist. After Judas, I’m willing to take a chance that they really exist.
There is no conspiracy here. This is being done in broad daylight with no attempt at concealment.
How about a thought experiment? Let’s suppose 25% of the deaths reported nationwide are NOT from Covid. 34,641 minus 25% is 25,981.
Deaths are often looked at as “annual”. If a really bad flu season has 90,000 deaths in 365 days, we have had 25,981 deaths in 48 days in which the nation was basically shut down for about 33 of those 48 (69% of the time). Understanding that viruses spread exponentially, a reasonable deduction is…This thing is a real killer!
A flu season generally runs from Fall to Spring Ben. The Kung Flu probably began percolating in the US back in December. Sweden, which did not go into lock down mode, has had a death rate about the same as ours adjusting for population. There are great differences between Sweden and the US: the US is much vaster, the US has many more larger urban centers and many more sparsely populated areas, and quite a few hotter areas which may aid in slowing the spread of the virus. Direct comparisons as a result are difficult. Let us say, for the sake of argument, that the death toll was twice as bed. Sad, but not worth wrecking the economy over in my view.
Ben, as Don was saying (or maybe implying), it won’t work to use a uniform time distribution. Covid-19 is seasonal like most corona viruses. The Israeli scientist (I forget his name) showed how natural immunization causes a decrease, irrespective of mitigation efforts. When 4000 out of 10,000 deaths are reported as estimated using the CDC guidelines for NYC, I think 25% is too low a percent to cut the death estimate.
Here’s the other side of the coin Don. I’d say the economy is not wrecked like a real depression or even recession. It was artificially induced. A true decline vs. waiting out a storm. As things open-up (and I agree they need to quickly) unemployment should drop quickly & the stock market should rise quickly
I tend to agree with you on that Ben, if we can put America back to work in the next 30-60 days. I am fairly optimistic today now that some states are announcing reopening dates.
Ben-
it is not a conspiracy theory when people openly state they are inflating the numbers, and even add more than 15% to the total when that number isn’t big enough for them.
I’d say the economy is not wrecked like a real depression or even recession. It was artificially induced.
So is the cut down in business when road construction makes it harder to go to them– it doesn’t make their balance sheet go to the black, and people get out of the habit of going.
I went from hoping that a Papa Murphy’s would open up that didn’t involve my husband taking a ten minute detour to pick up pizza for your monthly treat, to hoping that the place will still be open next year.
Bob, I’m going to have to ask you to back that up, on the chance that you’re confusing the story about the Israeli mathematician who uses no epidemiology at all.
Pinky, I was thinking about the Israeli mathematician, but I can’t find the link to the original story. However, i will stand by the assertion that covid-19 is a seasonal affair, looking at the numbers for European countries where mitigation efforts were a mixed bag.
I read an article about his study, but I haven’t read the study itself. But it seems to be purely mathematical. Science without math is just speculation, and math without science is just pattern recognition. A mathematician can’t prove whether or not a cloud turns into a bunny, but he’ll be inclined to think it does if the cloud takes on that shape. I don’t know the data or the science, so I don’t know if his results have merit, but I’m cautious when people cite questionable studies that support their original positions.
Pinky, I’ve looked at the study. I don’t know Hebrew, but I did use a translator for some of the graph headings and some were in English.
I’m going to post on this …should be up in a few hours.
Is there any science in any of this that isn’t questionable?
Any at all?
What do you mean by “questionable”? Victor Davis Hanson does a nice summary of the information we’re going to be getting soon.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-testing-will-reveal-much-about-virus-lockdowns/
I mean the facts don’t speak for themselves. Some interpreter is always speaking on their behalf.