The usual Open Thread rules apply:Â be concise, be charitable and, above all, be amusing.
It is the consensus in the polling industry that the Republicans are going to take a memorable shellacking on Tuesday. Perhaps. That would be par for the course in midterms. Here is what I think will happen in the Senate elections:
Michigan-I believe the Republican Rogers will win . El Sayed, the Democrat candidate, has substantial weakness among Jews and Blacks.  The polls in the primaries vastly overstated his strength and he barely one by one point. The candidate he beat, Hayley Stevens, has just endorsed Rogers. Against a unified Democrat party in 2024 Rogers came within a hair’s breath of winning with the polls showing him down by four points. I expect him to win by 2-5.
Texas-I believe Paxton will eke out a victory. Paxton has plenty of skeletons in his past, but Talarico is too Leftist for Texas. The Republicans came out in droves in early voting, as did the Democrats, but not by enough to overcome the expected Republican advantage on election day voting. Paxton by 3.
Maine- In 2020 every poll had Susan Collins down in her re-election bid, often by substantial margins. She won by eight points. Former two term Republican governor Paul LePage is running in the Second Congressional District of Maine and a just released poll shows him up by 5. Collins by eight again.
Ohio-Nail biter. Ohio is now a red state but the Republican campaign has been anemic and marred by missteps. Husted was appointed to the seat vacated by Vance when he became Veep, and this election is for the last two years of that term. Brown the Democrat lost his senate seat in 2024. Senators rarely get a second chance in American political history. Husted by 1-2.
Kansas-On paper the most Republican state in the Union, Kansas has been the site of a nasty internecine fight within the Republican party since MAGA came on the scene in 2016. However, the last Democrat senator from Kansas was elected in 1932. The Republican incumbent Marshall by 1-2.
Alaska-Peltola’s involvement, up to her neck, in getting Decoy Dan Sullivan on the ballot is exploding just at the right time for the real Dan Sullivan. He wins by 2-5.
Iowa-Republican Hinson is an awesomely good candidate and Iowa is a very red state. She wins by 5.
Minnesota-The Republican has put up a very good fight, but nutcase Flanagan will keep the seat blue by 3-5.
New Hampshire could be a surprise, but I think Pappas keeps it in the Democrat column by 3.
North Carolina-It has never been a contest. Democrat Governor Cooper flips the Senate seat blue by 5-6.
Georgia-Also never a contest. Ossoff keeps the seat blue.
South Carolina-The risk of a “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” appointment. Graham keeps her late Brother’s seat red, but it will be a lot closer than it should be. She wins by at least 3.
Nebraska-Rickets, the Republican will easily win his re-election bid by at least six points.
The rest of the Senate races aren’t contests, and the expected winners, Republican or Democrat, will be the winners. Let me know how you see these races in the comboxes.
Here in Texas a poll was just released with Paxton up over Telarico by just 1.1%. I voted on the last day of early voting, which was last Friday, and stood in line for about thirty minutes to do so. Republicans here tend to outperform Democrats on Election Day itself, so here’s hoping Paxton pulls it off. Fortunately Texas doesn’t have voting fraud on the scale of some other states, so we should have our results Wednesday…