No matter what pollster they use, Fox polls have always low balled Trump. In 2020 the final Fox poll had Biden winning by 8; he “won” by 4.5. In 2016 the final Fox poll had Clinton winning by 4; she lost with 2.1. What this poll does demonstrate is that Harris got virtually no bounce from her convention which spells doom for her. Even the hapless Mike Dukakis in 1988 got a bounce from his convention.
Dukakis got a handsome bounce from his convention and George Bush the Elder received squat from his (as the media made hay over Dan Quayle’s service record while ignoring Dukakis’). I’m remembering the Democratic opinion journalist (IIRC, Hendrik Hertzberg) who offered the bewildered observation that 25% of the electorate appeared to have changed their minds during the campaign.
That’s not going to happen this year. Voting preferences have turned into identity affirmations and there’s only a small swing vote. See James Neuchterlein on swing voters: a great many of them (he thought most) know nothing and made decisions on arbitrary grounds (“she reminds me of my first wife”). Then you have the vertiginous decline in ballot security. As for polling, it’s all the result of massaging convenience samples.
Oh I hope so.
Blue Party (not really Democrat. not RFK) you’ve made your bed, now keep it.
There’s a lady of the evening joke in there somewhere.
Unfortunately, polls are only revelatory to a point. The only sure-fire way to victory is registration and turn-out, something the Republicans have not been very good at over the last ten years. I really hope I’m wrong, but I don’t have a good feeling about this election.
I’m with Fr. J on this— I’m concerned that the Democrats aren’t panicking the way any sane person would. It makes me think that their lack of concern isn’t coming from a place of idiocy, but instead it’s an assurance born of the knowledge that this election is rigged to their satisfaction.
If they intend to cheat and steal this election, the only way they can be shut down is if Trump’s voters turn out in such numbers that their attempts to steal are simply swamped. Sadly, that level of Republican turnout isn’t a sure thing.