From The Institute For the Study of War:
Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna Stepanenko
March 22, 6:00 pm ET
Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and around Mykolayiv. Russian forces around Kyiv and other major cities are increasingly prioritizing long-range bombardment after the failure of Russian ground offensives but are unlikely to force major cities to surrender in this manner. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations toward the northeastern Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, or Kharkiv in the last 24 hours. Russian forces continued to further reduce the Mariupol pocket.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces are likely moving to a phase of protracted bombardment of Ukrainian cities due to the failure of Russia’s initial campaign to encircle and seize Kyiv and other major cities.
- Ukrainian forces conducted successful localized counterattacks northwest of Kyiv.
- Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine did not conduct any offensive operations in the past 24 hours.
- Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the past 24 hours.
- Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress reducing the Mariupol pocket.
- Russia may have failed to appoint an overall commander for its invasion of Ukraine, leading to Russian axes of advance competing for limited supplies and failing to synchronize their operations.
- Russian forces are likely moving to a phase of protracted bombardment of Ukrainian cities due to the failure of Russia’s initial campaign to encircle and seize Kyiv and other major cities. Russian forces continue to conduct air and missile strikes against both civilian and military targets across unoccupied Ukraine in the absence of offensive ground operations.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported at 6:00 pm local time on March 22 that Russian aircraft conducted over 80 sorties in the past 24 hours.[2] Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby additionally stated on March 21 that Russian forces have increased their long-range bombardment against Ukrainian cities in an attempt to force them to surrender.[3] Russian forces are unlikely to force Ukrainian cities to surrender with bombardment alone.Russian forces face continuing logistics and reinforcement issues. The Ukrainian General Staff specified for the first time on March 22 that Russian forces—particularly highlighting the 7thAir Assault Division operating around Kherson—are suffering casualties due to a poor medical supply system and lack of medicine.[4]The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Russian forces face growing supply issues, claiming some unspecified units have stockpiles of food and ammunition for no more than three days.[5] Russian forces continue to cobble together ad hoc units of servicemen from several units to replace combat losses.[6]Russia is expanding its methods to generate replacements, including expanding forcible conscription in Donetsk Oblast and forcing Russians with large amounts of debt to sign military contracts in return for exemption from credit obligations.[7]The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 22 that Russia is increasingly carrying out propaganda aimed at Belarusian servicemen to incentivize Belarusian participation in the war, although ISW cannot independently verify this claim and an unnamed US senior defense official stated on March 21 that the United States has seen no indication that Belarus is preparing to enter the war.[8]Russian forces are unlikely to successfully resolve their command and control issues in the near term. A senior US defense official stated on March 21 that Russian forces are increasingly using unsecured communications due to lacking sufficient capacity on secured networks.[9] CNN additionally quoted multiple sources on March 21 that the United States has been unable to determine if Russia has appointed an overall commander for the invasion of Ukraine.[10] These sources stated that Russian units from different military districts appear to be competing for resources and are not coordinating their operations.
Go here to read the rest. The Russians have come to a complete stop. Now the Ukrainians will gradually take the offensive.
And on a related note, in today’s New York Post, Piers Morgan complains that we’re not at war with Putin yet. At least, that’s the headline blurb. I’m not going to waste my time reading any further. Maybe he forgot Putin has an army, air force, navy, and about 1,500 nuclear armed ICBMs. And the Russian navy has, I am informed by someone who should know, nuclear torpedoes that can camp offshore waiting for a detonation signal. Sweet.
Good call, Morgan, you maroon.
About 18 hours ago, the official Kremlin news source Konsomolskaya Pravda released official numbers on casualties so far in the Ukrainian campaign: 16,153 wounded, an astounding 9861 killed. These numbers are shocking for a roughly 4-week war. Additionally, knowing the Russian propensity to understate negatives, losses may even be much larger.
Gen. Jack Keane, who has been spot-on in his analysis all along, even predicting the virtual day of the attack on Ukraine February 24, after the Olympics ended, commented that the losses of military vehicles are clearly in the thousands in terms of tanks and equally so for APC mechanized equipment—-The latter especially which have been shown to be completely vulnerable even to low-tech aim-and-fire rocket-propelled grenades: devastating personnel losses. (The upgraded T-72 and T-90 tanks are known to have personnel-sighting “intelligent” radar counterattack capabilities, so are a tougher nut to crack, and are best attacked by Javelins & most types of NLAWs, which permit the operator to take cover after firing the weapon.)
It is an understatement that these losses are unsustainable. However, the Russian army and Putin are not deterred apparently: according to Keane, it is known that the SV (army), which most open sources state had roughly 4500 battle-ready tanks at the outset, is supposed to have an estimated over 5000 (some say as many as 10,000) tanks in storage: Keane says the Kremlin is probably feverishly working to activate these and make them battle-ready. They probably lack sophisticated advance counter-warfare equipment— and given sanctions that are in place now, may not be ever brought up to full field readiness. Open source expert state that most of the best battle-ready tanks, such as upgraded T-90 MBT and the new T-14 Armata “supertank” are allegedly grouped in defensive divisions around Moscow. Those tanks are just as likely stationed there to protect against domestic attack by Russians rebelling against the ruling class.
As everyone here knows, the Putin-led Russian administration cannot lose this war or they are finished. The answer by the West has to be that a Ukrainian defeat cannot happen and to arm up the Ukrainians, and for that matter the Baltic states now, and ignore the Kremlin saber-rattling. The Russians cannot possibly afford a larger war at this point.
However with the Biden administration, and according to Newt Gingrich, Jake Sullivan slow-walking any Ukrainian armaments, there is always the opportunity for the Biden people to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.