From The Institute For The Study of War:
Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Madison Williams, Yekaterina Klepanchuk, and Frederick W. Kagan
November 18, 8:30pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Russian officials are preparing for further covert mobilization efforts even as the fall conscription cycle is underway, likely further flooding the already overburdened Russian force generation apparatus in such a way that will be detrimental to the development of mobilized and conscripted servicemen. Russian Telegram channels actively discussed indicators on November 18 that the Kremlin is preparing for a second mobilization wave and circulated an image of a draft summons received by a citizen of St. Petersburg who was reportedly told to appear for mobilization in January 2023 despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the formal end of partial mobilization on October 31.[1] Nationalist milbloggers additionally circulated claims that general mobilization will begin in December or January.[2] An independent Russian outlet published an investigation on November 18 showing that state structures and enterprises are continuing to prepare their employees for mobilization by sending them to various training programs and mobilization-related educational courses.[3] Another Russian outlet noted that the Odintsovo garrison military court in Moscow Oblast inadvertently confirmed that mobilization is continuing despite its formal end.[4] The court reportedly accused a mobilized soldier of beating his commander on November 13 “during the performance of his duties of military service or in connection with the performance of these duties during the period of mobilization,” which indicates that the court is operating on the legal basis that mobilization is still very much underway.[5] The Kremlin has said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no need to sign a decree formally ending the mobilization period, as ISW has previously reported.[6]
The continuation of covert mobilization efforts and potential preparations for another mobilization wave in tandem with the current fall conscription cycle are likely adding substantial strain to an already over-burdened Russian force generation apparatus. As ISW previously assessed, Putin likely ordered the end of partial mobilization in order to free up bureaucratic and administrative capacity for the November 1 conscription class.[7] However, it is evident that Russian authorities never fully halted mobilization efforts, which means that a limited number of mobilized recruits are still being forced through the training system at the same time as conscripts are going through their own training cycle. This will likely lead to even lower quality training for both mobilized recruits and conscripts as they compete for insufficient training capacity. Another wave of mobilization in the coming months will only worsen the situation and likely degrade the overall quality of the Russian troops that will be funneled to the frontline in Ukraine.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that it does not recognize the illegal Russian seizure and operation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) or the illegal annexation of occupied Ukrainian territory, a sharp escalation in IAEA rhetoric. The IAEA’s Board of Governors issued a statement on November 17 that called on Russia to “immediately abandon its baseless claims of ownership of the plant” and to withdraw “military and other personnel” from the ZNPP due to “grave concerns” over the ZNPP’s integrity.[8] The IAEA issued a statement on November 18 that Russian strikes on November 17 partially or completely cut power to Ukraine’s Khmelnytskyy Nuclear Power Plant and Rivne Nuclear Power Plant, and IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi stated that these strikes demonstrate “the potential nuclear safety and security risks facing all of Ukraine’s nuclear facilities during this terrible war, not just the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.”[9] ISW recently assessed that the IAEA’s rhetorical shift suggests that Russian physical control and operational authority over the ZNPP alarms the IAEA.[10] Russian forces’ ongoing threats to both the ZNPP and Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs) in unoccupied territory indicate that Russia is an unsuitable caretaker of the ZNPP, even though the Russian government relies on claims that it is a responsible operator of the ZNPP to legitimize its ongoing presence at the plant.[11]
Social media footage circulated on November 18 shows a Russian soldier opening fire on Ukrainians as other Russian soldiers were surrendering. The graphic footage shows Ukrainian troops in Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast, taking a group of Russian soldiers prisoner when one Russian soldier emerges from a house holding a gun and opens fire.[12] Drone footage shows the bodies of the deceased Russian soldiers after the incident.[13] Open-source analysts concluded that the Russian soldier opened fire initially, but it is unclear who killed the Russian prisoners, when, and under what circumstances.[14] However, the Russian information space immediately responded to the footage by widely accusing Ukrainian forces of a ”mass execution” of the Russian prisoners.[15] The Russian Investigative Committee opened a criminal case against Ukrainian Armed Forces and is reportedly trying to identify the Ukrainian servicemen in the video.[16]
Key Takeaways
- Russian officials are preparing for further covert mobilization efforts even as the fall conscription cycle is underway, likely further diminishing the development of quality mobilized and conscripted servicemen.
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that it does not recognize the illegal Russian seizure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) or the illegal annexation of other occupied Ukrainian territory, a sharp escalation in IAEA rhetoric.
- Social media footage circulated on November 18 shows a Russian soldier opening fire on Ukrainians as other Russian soldiers were surrendering.
- Russian forces reinforced rear areas in Luhansk Oblast and attempted to regain lost positions as Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces continued limited ground assaults near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and in western Donetsk Oblast.
- Russian occupation officials and military leadership are seemingly increasingly concerned about subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern Ukraine.
- Russia continues to face exceedingly low morale and poor discipline among its forces against the backdrop of ongoing domestic backlash to partial mobilization.
- Russian occupation officials and forces continued to intensify filtration measures in Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine and to undermine the Ukrainian national identity.
Go here to read the rest. In the old Soviet Union there used to be a saying: They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work.
In Putin’ s army they could say: They pretend to train and supply us, and we pretend to gight.
I have come across two, well, fascinating articles over the past two days. American Greatness, an alleged conservative online news and commentary site, has a big article, alleging to tell the truth about Ukraine. It reads like it was written by Russian state television.
Ukraine’s post 1991 corruption is documented. Ukraine’s early support of Nazi Germany in 1941 is cited as Ukraine being pro Nazi. The Azov Battalion is referred to as a virtual SS division. Then there is the crap about NATO and the West provoking Putin.
On One Peter Five, there is a long, long article about how the United States Government, through the First Amendment, sought to undermine the authority of the Catholic Church and that big US corporations sought to bring about Communism in Russia.
If being an American conservative means I must look
the other way when Putin invades a neighboring soverign nation, then to hell with being an American conservative.
Pinning Lenin’s lifelong hatred of the Czar, his Communist ideology and Imperial Germany’s stunt to put Lenin in Russia to get Russia out of World War I on the US Government and JP Morgan strikes me as absurd on its face and not worthy of serious discussion.
Imperial Russia was a nasty place to have to live and the absolute rule of the Czar didn’t make it any better.
If being a Traditional Catholic means that I have to despise the US Constitution and pine for a monarchy, and grieve over monarchies gone, then the hell with that, too.
Fact: Russia treats its neighbors like crap, no matter if it is a Czar, a General Secretary of the Communust Party or a dictator who call himself a president.
Fact: Russia has invaded its neighbors, annexed their territories into Russia, deported native citizens and put Russians in their place.
Fact: The USSR was Hitler’s first ally.
Fact: The USSR murdered 140K ethnic Poles in the USSR in the late 1930s.
Fact: Stalin engineered the Holodomor, where millions of Ukrainians starved to death
Fact: Putin has never returned to Poland the wreckage of the jet carrying over 100 Polish dignitaries that crashed near Smolensk in 2010.
Viewpoint: Putin is a bully and a nasty actor. Russia does what Russia always does.
Penguins Fan: I read those pieces. The OnePeterFive bit was particularly odd. That said, I feel your pain from the other side of the political aisle. There are a bunch of guys who claim to be leftists who are now just republishing Russian press releases these days.
That said, pleas know how much I appreciate you and American Catholic being steadfast opponents of Russia’s invasion. This should be really easy to be correct on, but as we all know, plenty of people have failed that basic test.
Karen, I share your bafflement as to how so many Americans, of whatever political category, seem to have forgotten, first, the things about Russia and the USSR which Penguins Fan pointed out above, and second, that Russia again is the aggressor, as they usually are, which is something I thought we as Americans believed to be wrong under nearly all circumstances. It’s just plain weird
One such person showed me a map of eastern Europe ca. 1100 to demonstrate that Ukraine was part of Russia from the beginning, which somehow justifies Russia’s reclamation of lost territory.
No doubt when the Aztecs invade central Mexico, this action will also be supported.
Ukraine was a civilized country when the Rus (as the original Russians were known) were running around in animal skins and living in mud and timber huts. Civilization entered Russia through Ukraine in the 11th Century but never fully established to this day,
I admit to getting disgusted by the so-called Right being so against helping Ukraine. Putin has scored brownie points with the not so intellectual Right for not permitting the LBGT crowd a toehold in Russia, along with the growth in the Russian Orthodox Church.
The Pat Buchanans of the world will claim that Ukraine is in Russia”s sphere of influence and the US has no interests there.
Throw in the anti-NATO isolationists and those that recall helping Afghanistan in the 1980s led to the Taliban taking over and housing Al Qaeda.
There is an historical disdain for Eastern Europe held by Western Europeans, and the US, of being a bunch of backward rubes. Then there is Biden’s BS with his son and Burisma.
Ukraine is worth keeping out of Putin’s reach. Its farmland, energy resources and warm water ports are craved by Putin.
Kyiv is the historical heart of Slavic Eastern Christianity, not Moscow. What’s more is that the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth did more to protect human rights of the ancestors of both modern day Ukrainians and Belarusians than the Russian Empire ever did.
It was the Commonwealth that constantly fought the Ottomans. The Russians got involved a lot later.
I admit to getting disgusted by the so-called Right being so against helping Ukraine.
I’m a little disgusted at Western Europe’s expectation that the U.S. continue to pay the lion’s share of defending them 75 years after WWII while their governments continue funding their annual 8-week paid vacations and their green revolution.
… There’s support of Ukraine, then there’s enabling Ukraine. This is first and foremost a European problem, it would be nice if Europe could acknowledge that.
No argument from me, CAG. Western Europecrelies upon the US taxpayer to finance their defense…and Americans…while western Europe grants massive middle class welfare.
Glad to hear it Penguins Fan (LGRW!) … so you should understand why some of us think our investment in NATO seems rather lopsided?
Yup. Poland pays its 2% of GDP…don’t know who else does.