Thursday, March 28, AD 2024 10:43am

Ukraine War Analysis-June 27, 2022

From The Institute For The Study of War:

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, George Barros and Grace Mappes

June 27, 4:45pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

A Russian missile strike hit a shopping mall in a residential area of Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast on June 27, likely killing many civilians.[1] Ukrainian sources stated that over 1,000 civilians were inside the mall at the time of the strike, and officials are still clarifying the number of casualties.[2] The Kremenchuk strike follows a wider intensification of Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets in recent days. Advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs Vadym Denisenko stated on June 26 that Russian forces have begun a campaign of massive and largely indiscriminate missile strikes against Ukrainian cities, which echoes statements made by an unnamed US defense official on June 27 that Russian forces are increasingly relying on artillery and missile strikes to advance operations in Ukraine.[3] As Russian forces continue to burn through their supply of high-precision weaponry, such attacks that cause substantial collateral civilian damage will likely escalate.[4]

Russian military authorities continue to seek ways to replenish their increasingly exhausted force capabilities without announcing general mobilization. An unnamed senior US defense official stated on June 27 that Russian forces are likely running low on senior military leaders and are relying more heavily on retired officers and reserves to replace officer casualties.[5] The UK Ministry of Defense similarly reported that Russian forces will likely rely heavily on reserve echelons, namely the Combat Army Reserve (BARS) and Human Mobilization Resource, in order to galvanize volunteer support and fill out the third battalion tactical group (BTG) within regular (and depleted) brigades.[6] As ISW has previously assessed, such reserves are unlikely to provide Russian forces with meaningful regeneration of force capabilities.

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.
  • Russian forces made incremental advances southwest of Lysychansk near the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but have not entirely severed Ukrainian lines of communication into Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces made measured advances during offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled Russian offensives north of Slovyansk.
  • Russian forces made limited and localized attacks along contested frontlines around Kharkiv City but did not make any advances on June 27.
  • Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Southern Axis continue to force Russian troops to prioritize defensive operations along the line of contact.
  • Russian occupation authorities are taking steps to strengthen economic control of occupied territories and force Ukrainian civilians to switch to the ruble.

Go here to read the rest.  An odd war where the aggressor is having such a hard time building any momentum.

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Steve Phoenix
Steve Phoenix
Tuesday, June 28, AD 2022 6:43am

Ukrainian blogger Denys Davidov reports that yesterday (6/27) the Russians sent a force to try to cross the Seversky Donets river near Izium, where they had been concentrating forces and were severely attacked and turned back. Western news services haven’t yet been notified apparently having few ground reporters in this area: we should be hearing about this tomorrow (Davidov is usually 2-3 days ahead of the news services).

The Russian military using large scale standoff missiles to attack non-military civilian centers with no strategic importance, such as the attack on the shopping mall at Krasmatorsk yesterday, is reminiscent of Göring trying to bomb the British populace into terrorist submission. It never works. And also appears to show that the Ukrainian missile defense systems, which they’ve concentrated around their military positions, have become increasingly effective at knocking down Russian missile attacks. obviously, the Russians have decided to go after “soft” targets.

Ezabelle
Ezabelle
Tuesday, June 28, AD 2022 8:46am

The attack on the Shopping Mall is an example of Putin’s desperation. Hell or bust. What’s coming next only God knows. Prayers for the innocent.

The Christian Teacher
The Christian Teacher
Tuesday, June 28, AD 2022 4:21pm

Why bother posting these? The last group most people want to hear from is a Raytheon-funded think tank operated by such luminaries as Never Trump war pig Bill Kristol, Blackwater lobbyist Jack Keane, and Robert Kagan’s sister-in-law.
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I read them -often daily. If you don’t want the info, you don’t have to read or comment on it. You can even start your own blog!!

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