From The Institute For The Study of War:
Karolina Hird, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Frederick W. Kagan
June 20, 5:30 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian officials are emphasizing that the coming week will be decisive for Russian efforts to take control of Severodonetsk.[1] Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Russian leadership has set June 26 as the deadline for Russian forces to reach the Luhansk Oblast administrative border, which will likely result in intensified efforts to take full control of Severodonetsk and move westward towards the Oblast border.[2] Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk except for the industrial zone as of June 20, which is the first explicit Ukrainian confirmation that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk with the exception of the Azot plant.[3] Russian forces will likely continue efforts to clear the Azot plant and complete encirclement operations south of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk by driving up the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.
Russian authorities likely seek to leverage the consequences of Russia’s blockade on Ukrainian grain exports in order to cajole the West into weakening its sanctions. Head of state-owned propaganda outlet RT Margarita Simonyan stated on June 20 that the famine caused by Russia’s blockade on grain exports will force the rest of the world to lift sanctions in order to curb further effects of global famine.[4] Simonyan’s statement is especially salient considering a report by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office that Ukraine had generated 12% of global wheat and barley exports and that Russia’s blockade has trapped over 20 million tons of grain in storage.[5]
The UK Ministry of Defense claimed on June 20 that consistent failures of the Russian air force have significantly contributed to Russia’s limited success in Ukraine.[6] The UK MoD emphasized that the Russian air force has continually underperformed and been largely risk-averse, failing to establish air superiority or give Russian forces a decisive advantage in Ukraine. The report additionally claimed that training procedures for air force personnel are scripted and designed to impress senior officials but do not adequately prepare personnel for the challenges of active air combat.
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian sources stated that the coming week will be decisive for Russian forces to complete the capture of Severodonetsk and that Russian forces will focus troops and equipment on the area.
- Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces control all of Severodonetsk with the exception of the Azot industrial zone, where fights are ongoing.
- Russian sources are likely setting information conditions to justify slow and unsuccessful advances towards Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman.
- Russian forces are likely intensifying operations to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support escalating operations in Severodonetsk-Lysychansk.
- Russian forces continued to focus on resisting further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City towards the international border.
- Russian forces are continuing defensive operations along the Southern Axis.
- Ukrainian partisan activity is continuing to complicate efforts by Russian occupation authorities to consolidate control of occupied areas.
Go here to read the rest. I strongly suspect that the Ukrainians are readying a counter offensive.
I am so discouraged. All I ever seem to read is that Russian troops are slowly taking more ground and/or they are digging in where they are.
Finally, apparently stung by criticisms around the world for its obsequiously Russian-submissive inaction, Germany finally delivered some useful equipment—Panzerhaubitze 2000’s— Fairly state-of-the-art self-propelled 155mm artillery with a range of at least 20 miles, and if using rocket-assisted (“RAP”) projectiles, up to 40 miles. Rheinmetall how’s built 185 of these. Germany has 108 in 4 active brigades. News reports avoided specifics so I went to the official German Defense Ministry release.
And they sent Ukraine—-(are you ready for it?)—-7. Bitter derisive laughter is in order.
Right, Sargent Schultz that’s going to really head off the 100’s of Russian artillery firing night and day on Ukraine.
Christian Teacher: Don’t give up hope. The Ukrainians have exacted another extremely heavy toll on Russian forces in the Severodonetsk campaign—which has been their goal. It is true they are suffering heavy losses, but they seem to think the lopsided casualties they are inflicting on the Russians are having an effect. Their recruiting and training has not lacked for personnel, unlike the Russian side. Training is the big issue (Of course ISW and other sites say the Russians train for only 30 days and then send their cannon fodder to the front.) The Ukraine Intel services have been very active and have closed up a number of security leaks on their side, and they have a lot of information support from disaffected Russian forces, even from some defectors. Western analysts think that the Ukrainians are preparing for a very heavy counteroffensive, and that is why they have held back generally on any counterattacks, except in the Kherson-Mikolaiv area in the south near Odessa, awaiting the concentration of newly arrived.
equipment. Also the heavy attacks by the Russians have got to be having a toll on their artillery equipment. US and western military doctrine usually recommend replacement of 155 mm shells such as in the M777 somewhere after firing 2500 or more times (although some US gov site open sources say the M777 has been built in testing to fire up to 10,000 or more times. That seems awfully high.) Continuing as the Russians have done so with the incessant barrages they have launched for weeks has got to result in breech failures here and there soon. Artillery barrels at a certain point have to be replaced due to the repeated shock of metal fatigue at for safety reasons. Additionally Russian metallurgy is usually far inferior to western units.
So, this is a tense time, but this doesn’t look like a Russian strategic or even tactical victory right now. And Ukrainian are nowhere near considering surrendering.
Thank you for the relevant info, Steve.
And they sent Ukraine—-(are you ready for it?)—-7. Bitter derisive laughter is in order.
Right, Sargent Schultz that’s going to really head off the 100’s of Russian artillery firing night and day on Ukraine.
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Without the military of the US, Germany would not be free.