From The Institute For The Study of War:
Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, and George Barros
June 11, 6:00 pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Ukrainian intelligence assesses that the Russian military is extending its planning to fight a longer war, though Russian force generation and reserves likely remain poor. Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitsky stated the GUR received confirmed information that Russian forces have extended their war planning for the next 120 days, extending to October 2022.[1] Skibitsky said that Russian forces will adjust the plan depending on their successes in Donbas and noted that the Russian General Staff is modifying their invasion plans almost every month.[2] Skibitsky’s statement likely indicates the Kremlin has, at a minimum, acknowledged it cannot achieve its objectives in Ukraine quickly and is further adjusting its military objectives in an attempt to correct the initial deficiencies in the invasion of Ukraine. Skibitsky also claimed that Russian forces have an additional 40 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in reserve, after having already deployed 103 BTGs to Ukraine. This report is highly unlikely to mean Russian forces retain 40 full-strength and effective BTGs in Russia. At most, these “BTGs” are likely small collections of personnel cobbled together from other units. The Russian military is additionally unlikely to be holding such a significant portion of its force in reserve due to continuing manpower shortages in existing frontline units.
Ukrainian officials continued to increase their requests for Western offensive and defensive equipment, particularly regarding capabilities necessary to combat Russian artillery superiority. Head of the Ukrainian Northern Operational Command Dmytro Krasilnikov reported that Ukrainian forces are experiencing a shortage in long-range artillery systems, while Russian artillery continues to overpower Ukrainian infantry. Ukrainian Advisor to Cabinet of Ministers Oleksandr Danylyuk stated that Russian forces adopted a new unspecified strategy that allows them to make more careful maneuvers.[3] Danylyuk added that Russian forces have more resources than Ukraine, which would prove advantageous in a protracted conflict. Severodonetsk Mayor Oleksandr Stryuk said that Ukrainian defenders need long-range artillery and air defense systems to strike against advancing Russian troops in Luhansk Oblast.[4] Ukrainian forces will need consistent Western support, particularly regarding artillery systems, as Russian numbers and resources take their toll on Ukrainian forces in increasingly positional warfare.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued to conduct ground offensives within the Severodonetsk area, but Ukrainian defenders retain control of the industrial area of the city as of June 11.
- Russian forces likely resumed efforts to cut the T1303 Hirske-Lysyschansk highway and launched failed assaults on settlements along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychank highway.
- Russian forces continued assaults on settlements southwest and southeast of Izyum in an effort to resume drives on Slovyansk.
- Ukrainian forces likely resumed counteroffensives northwest of Kherson City on June 11, south of their previous operations.
- Russian occupation officials distributed the first batch of Russian passports in Kherson City and Melitopol.
Go here to read the rest. All modern wars eventually become wars of materiel if they go on long enough. Ukraine can’t outproduce Russia, but NATO can.
“ Ukraine can’t outproduce Russia, but NATO can.”
Don’t be so sure…..
Sounds like you’re all in for WWIII over a country we have no strategic interest in ….
Sounds like you’re all in for WWIII over a country we have no strategic interest in ….
Russia, which has a productive capacity 7.5x that of Ukraine, has been able to sustain operations in five of the Ukraine’s 24 regions and has been stymied for months. I don’t think they’re much of a threat to NATO just yet, unless they elect to start firing off nuclear missiles in response to the deficiencies of their conventional forces.
Don’t be so sure…
Really? Russia can’t seem to subjugate Ukraine now. Imagine if they had to face an air force and a navy.
The question isn’t if NATO can “outproduce Russia”, the question is how long NATO will be willing to endure economic hardship for their pet project in eastern Europe.
unless they elect to start firing off nuclear missiles in response to the deficiencies of their conventional forces.
That’s the worry, which will win, sanity or Russian ego? I think China is hoping for ego.
“I think China is hoping for ego.”
The worldwide fallout should persuade China otherwise.
the question is how long NATO will be willing to endure economic hardship for their pet project in eastern Europe.
The expense is unlikely to be of a scale to generate ‘economic hardship’ in Europe.
That’s the worry, which will win, sanity or Russian ego? I think China is hoping for ego.
No clue what China wants. What Russia does at this juncture is on therm.
Late news this evening (6/12) indicated Russian artillery has destroyed a key bridge over the Seversky Dnipro river between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. If so, this could really prove a major problem for Ukrainian forces, potentially trapped on the eastern (Severodonetsk) side of the river. Also, the Ukrainian blogger I regularly follow, Denys Davidov, who provides open source strategic maps from Ukrainian military TV, indicates the Ukrainians are having a hard time of it in the southern jaw of the pincer around Severodonetsk at Popasna. Similarly, they are being pushed back at the northern pincer half at Lyman. Davidov tries very hard to be balanced and to give “the bad news as well as a good news;” but he has been noticeably downbeat the last few days.
Also, I did not think it was a good idea that the Ukrainian ambassador, Oksana Makarova, prominently announced 6/3 the Ukrainian military is taking heavy casualties, about 100 per day. I assumped thinks they also may be lost some of their best most experience fighters at Kyiv, Kharkhiv and here. Zelensky himself also made that statement May 22nd, about daily troop losses, and I wasn’t sure if he was trying to use disinformation tactics to get the Russians to be overconfident. But I couldn’t see how that could help to Ukrainian cause, and if anything it will only encourage the flagging Russians to pour it on, thinking they’re close to breaking the Ukrainian resistance. I just don’t see the advantage and giving encouragement to your enemy unless you’re leading them into a trap.
The expense is unlikely to be of a scale to generate ‘economic hardship’ in Europe.
As long as Russian oil and gas keeps flowing.
As long as Russian oil and gas keeps flowing.
Russia accounts for about 2.4% of the gas exported across the globe and about 11% of the oil exported. Fuel and minerals have in recent years accounted for about 55% of Russia’s export revenue and about 15% of their nominal domestic product. They’re rather more vulnerable in this regard than are their customers.
Germany has few choices for power. Their green push has left them vulnerable when the sun isn’t shining, and right now they’re relying on Russian imports. They’re talking about restarting mothballed coal plants. I, for one, am looking forward to the mockery they’ll justifiably earn when they start charging their electric BMWs with coal power.
Germany has few choices for power.
They have every choice their supply chain will sustain.