Thursday, March 28, AD 2024 6:53am

Ukraine War Analysis-May 26

 

From The Institute For The Study of War:

 

Karolina Hird, Mason Clark, and George Barros

May 26, 6:30pm ET

Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defenses remain effective overall. Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that the fighting is currently at its “maximum intensity” compared to previous Russian assaults and will likely continue to escalate.[1] Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk characterized Russian gains as “temporary success” and stated that Ukrainian forces are using a maneuver defense to put pressure on Russian advances in key areas.[2] Russian forces have now taken control of over 95% of Luhansk Oblast and will likely continue efforts to complete the capture of Severodonetsk in the coming days.[3] Russian forces have made several gains in the past week, but their offensive operations remain slow. Russian forces are heavily degraded and will struggle to replace further losses.

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance southeast of Izyum near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.
  • Russian forces continued steady advances around Severodonetsk and likely seek to completely encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area in the coming days.
  • Russian forces continued to make persistent advances south and west of Popasna toward Bakhmut, but the Russian pace of advance will likely slow as they approach the town itself.
  • Russian forces in occupied areas of the Southern Axis are reportedly preparing a “third line of defense” to consolidate long-term control over the region and in preparation to repel likely future Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Go here to read the rest.  The chief Russian problem in this War has been supply lines.  They have been in Eastern Ukraine since 2014, so in that part of the country their supply lines are short and their troops relatively easy to keep in supply.  The Russian reliance on artillery is traditional and doubtless also indicates a shortage of reliable infantry and armor.  Such reliance means any offensive tends to be slow.  An opportunity for the Ukrainians, if they can take the opportunity to renew a mobile war rather than set piece defenses of the targets of the Russian slow motion offensives.

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The Christian Teacher
The Christian Teacher
Friday, May 27, AD 2022 7:33pm

Unfortunately, this report does not indicate Russia is losing ground. sigh

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