From The Institute For The Study of War:
Karolina Hird, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros
May 20, 5:30 ET
Russian forces are focusing on digging in and reinforcing defensive positions in Kharkiv and along the Southern Axis in preparation for Ukrainian counteroffensives, while the majority of active offensive operations remain confined to Izyum-Donetsk City arc and especially the Popasna-Severodonetsk area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are creating secondary defensive lines on the Southern Axis, indicating that the Russian grouping in this area may be preparing for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive and a protracted conflict.[i] Russian forces reportedly are holding defensive positions north of Kharkiv City following the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive since May 5 and have conducted limited spoiling attacks either to give Russian forces time to complete their redeployment back to Russia in good order or to allow reinforcements to arrive to defend territory in Kharkiv Oblast. Significant Russian offensive operations are confined to the area of Severodonetsk. Russian troops have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of the city, especially around Popasna, in order to attempt to take control of Severodonetsk.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces may have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of Popasna in order to continue their offensive on Severodonetsk from the south.
- Russian sources may be overstating the number of Ukrainian defenders who have been evacuated from Azovstal to either maximize the number of Russian prisoners of war who may be exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers or to avoid the embarrassment of admitting they have been locked into a months-long siege against only “hundreds” of Ukrainian soldiers.
- Russian troops reportedly regained certain positions taken by the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City.
- Russian forces are likely preparing for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive and protracted conflict on the Southern Axis.
Go here to read the rest. The lull before the long expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Local Ukrainian bloggers state that the airport and city boundaries around Severodonetsk are heavily entrenched and defended, and it will be costly for the Russians to encircle the city, lay siege, and cut it off from re-supply. ISW and other sites believe that the weakened state of the remaining Russians’ BTG’s do not have a capacity for full-scale attack nor even to hold the siege lines at Severodonetsk nor Lysychansk, that they are attempting to lay.
Denys Davidov, one of the bloggers quoted before, whose reports cover the good and the bad for Ukraine, and whose reports have been fairly accurate, says that Ukrainian forces are training up and arming with resupplied Western state-of-the-art equipment and are preparing to launch a powerful 5-pronged attack on the Russians, ranging from the north near Kharkhiv all the way to the south, near Kherson and Sevastopol. They believe the Russians are militarily weakened and demoralized, undersupplied, and that most of their best fighting infantry are dead, MIA or sufficiently wounded to be out of the fight.
Russia announced a call-up of men over age-40 to the military two days ago, an acknowledgment that their losses are likely around 20,000-25,000 killed or MIA—-and usually seriously wounded are twice the number of killed, according to Gen. Jack Keane.
In fact, the issue of Russian infantry battle training and tactics, or lack thereof, has been noted by several British, NATO, and US military analysts. Russian soldiers when under attack tend to group near their APC’s and try to mistakenly use them as a shield, when in fact they are shrapnel and bullet magnets.
Anyway you look at it, something big is coming in the next 10 days.
I sure hope you’re right, Steve, because the detail maps from this site are worrisome. In the last week, Ukraine has beaten the Russians back at Severodonetsk, but they’ve lost Azovstal, and Russia has gained a couple hundred km² south of Izyum, a couple hundred km² near Oleksandrivka, and a few hundred km² around Popasna. These all may be tactical retreats by the Ukrainians, and the hope is Ukraine is giving a lot better than they’re getting, but the patient slow-and-steady-wins-the-race strategy by Russia seems to be working so far.
but the patient slow-and-steady-wins-the-race strategy by Russia seems to be working so far.
About as well as planing a door with an eraser.
About as well as planing a door with an eraser.
😂❗️ I sure hope that’s a fair analogy, Art … But I bet those “modest gains” the Institute keeps referring to don’t seem too modest to the folks whose towns have just been “liberated” by the Russians
But I bet those “modest gains” the Institute keeps referring to don’t seem too modest to the folks whose towns have just been “liberated” by the Russians
They’ve captured two third-tier cities and four fourth-tier cities in the course of the current fighting. Three were captured in the 1st week (they’re on the coast) and a fourth was at that time placed under siege (which it took two months to complete). They’ve taken two cities since, which have between them a population of about 100,000. At the rate they’re progressing, the Russians might complete the task in three or four years.
There were several towns (and townspeople) “captured” in the several hundred square kilometers of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia in the last week. If you want to quibble about the definition of “cities”, “towns” and “settlements”, you’re on your own. They are irrelevant distinctions to the people who live there.
… At this point, I don’t think the Russians have a problem investing 3-4 years in the Ukraine assimilation
There were several towns (and townspeople) “captured” in the several hundred square kilometers of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia in the last week. If you want to quibble about the definition of “cities”, “towns” and “settlements”, you’re on your own. They are irrelevant distinctions to the people who live there.
I checked every urban center with a population over 40,000 (which will constitute the vast majority of the urban population in any ordinary country). Those six town are what they’ve managed to seize.
… At this point, I don’t think the Russians have a problem investing 3-4 years in the Ukraine assimilation
At the rate they’re losing flag rank officers, I’m going to wager they’ll be some pushback before then from the career military.