Thursday, March 28, AD 2024 3:35pm

Ukraine War Analysis-May 18, 2022

 

 

 

From The Institute For The Study of War:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 18

Kateryna Stepanenko and Karolina Hird

May 18, 6:15 pm ET

Russian occupation authorities announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant and turn Mariupol into a resort city, depriving Russia of some of the most important economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place. Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin stated that DNR authorities are planning to level Azovstal after completing its capture.[1] Azovstal was a major element of Mariupol’s economy before the war because of its unique function as a full-cycle metallurgical complex, the 10,000 jobs associated with production at the plant, the billions of dollars of foreign exchange earnings and taxes it generated, and its production output of 7,000 tons of steel, 6 million tons of iron, and 4.5 million tons of rolled metal, according to the Mariupol City Council.[2] Pushilin stated that the DNR intends to rebuild Mariupol to be a “resort city,” while admitting that 60% of the structures in Mariupol have been destroyed to the point where they cannot be rebuilt.[3] The announced plan to turn Mariupol into a center of tourism and leisure following the complete destruction of a major center of economic activity in Mariupol, is indicative of the damage that Russian troops have inflicted on themselves through the destruction of Mariupol. Russia does not need another resort town on the Black Sea. It does need the kind of hard currency that a plant like Azovstal had generated. This announcement epitomizes the kind of Pyrrhic victories Russian forces have won in Ukraine, to the extent that they have won victories at all.

The Kremlin may hope to offset the loss of revenues from Azovstal and other destroyed infrastructure in Ukraine by profiting from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant that is forces have seized. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin announced that he will allocate maximum integration assistance for Zaporizhia Oblast to work in a “friendly Russian family” during his visit to Melitopol on May 18.[4] Khusnullin added that the Zaporihia Nuclear Power Plant will exclusively work for Russia and will sell electricity to Ukraine. This statement is a clear Russian recognition that there will be an independent Ukraine at the end of this war and that Russia seeks to restore its energy leverage over Ukraine and possibly the West more broadly that has been reduced by sanctions and efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy. It also reinforces the urgency of helping Ukraine regain control of Enerhodar City and the rest of its occupied territory to forestall this renewed economic thralldom. ISW previously reported that Russian forces started digging trenches and blocking highways to Enerhodar City.[5] The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian occupation authorities continued to prepare for a referendum in Enerhodar City on May 18.[6]

Ukrainian officials reported protests in Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) over forced mobilizations on May 16-17. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that relatives of the forcefully mobilized LNR servicemen demanded an immediate return of their family members from combat in Luhansk City and Rovenky approximately 50 kilometers west of Russian border.[7] The GUR noted that perceptions of war and resentment of mobilization in LNR worsened because of the high casualties Russian forces have suffered and the fact that Russian authorities are reportedly evading payments to the families of wounded and killed servicemen. Mariupol Mayor’s Advisor Petro Andryushenko had previously reported that a protest against mobilization had occurred in Donetsk City on May 16.[8]

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces are continuing to inflict air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian defense is still in the plant despite evacuations over the last few days.
  • Russian occupying authorities are reportedly planning to level the Azovstal Steel Plant after completing its capture, which directly undermines the large strategic economic importance of capturing the plant.
  • Russian forces continued to prepare for an assault on Severodonetsk and intensified operations around Lyman.
  • Russian forces continued to prioritize holding positions around the Russian border to prevent further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City and will likely continue to do so at the expense of deploying additional reinforcements to other axes of advance.
  • Russian troops focused on maintaining their positions on the Southern Axis and on conducting rocket, missile, and artillery strikes along the frontline.

Go here to read the rest.  From Strategy Page:

 

May 18, 2022: The most recent Russian offensive in Ukraine has failed and, as usual, Vladimir Putin is carrying out a major replacement of generals commanding major units involved. Prompt dismissal of so many senior commanders is an ancient practice in Russia. There has been a long tradition of the “vertical chop 0r stroke)”, where several senior leaders in the same chain of command are dismissed, or even executed, at least in the old days, when there was a screwup in their area of responsibility. This is the second military leadership purge since the invasion began on February 24. The first purge took place quietly and less rapidly in March as it became clear that the original plan to rapidly and at little cost seize control of Ukraine was not working. That led to a disastrous defeat in northern Ukraine which saw half Russia’s combat units there destroyed or disabled by heavy losses. As the March purge was ending a new offensive was announced that concentrated on taking control of all of Donbas and the entire Ukrainian Black Sea coast. This new plan was supposed to show some results by May 9th, when Russian held the annual Victory Day parade in honor of the Russian victory over Nazi Germany.

There was no good news by May 9th and portions of the offensive had turned into a retreat. Ukrainian forces were preparing other offensive operations and the Russian response was to install new military commanders who believed they could make the Russian invasion successful, or at least less of a failure. The latest plan involves annexing portions of Ukraine occupied by Russian forces and trying to portray Ukrainians as the invaders for trying to get their territory back. This is an ancient tactic which for centuries the ancient Romans used successively because they maintained the most professional and effective military forces in the region. Using this “we stole it fairly and it’s ours” approach doesn’t work if you cannot defend your new conquest.

After World War II Russia got away with holding on to most of its World War II conquests. As the Romans eventually discovered, a lot of those conquests don’t stay conquered and when there are too many rebellious conquests your empire collapses. This is what happened to the Soviet Union in 1991 and now former Soviet KGB officer Vladimir Putin is trying to put the Russian empire back together.

Ukraine was the vital first reconquest, and it isn’t working. Vigorous application of the vertical chop is not working largely because replacement leaders are selected for loyalty rather than military ability. Before World War II Russia was dismissing military commanders for suspected disloyalty and replacing them with loyal, but often incompetent, officers. After the German invasion, the vertical chop got real, with failed commanders being replaced by competent ones. Once the war was over Russia returned to the “loyalty replaces ability” approach and that was a major factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Another aspect of this which many Russians notice that this time around the Ukrainians are the desperate and very practical defenders of their homeland while the Russian invaders are acting like the World War II Nazis, except without the initial advantage of better trained and led troops. Many of the Russian troops in Ukraine, especially conscripts realized they were regarded by the Ukrainians as another bunch of Nazis. This crippled a lot of Russian combat units and even the threat of summary execution by officers (a power quietly reinstated by Putin) did not improve morale or willingness to fight.

Putin has ordered a growing number of these military purges in the last two decades. For example, in 2016 Russia announced that fifty of the most senior officers of the Baltic Fleet had been fired and replaced with newly promoted officers or commanders who had proven track records in other parts of the navy. Some of the replacements did have useful skills, but many did not and the Baltic Sea Fleet has not improved much.

The purges were justified because of the growing official Russian hostility towards NATO and the four new (since 1991) NATO members that used to be part of Russia (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) or occupied by Russia (Poland). Those new NATO members upgraded their military capabilities because of the increasing belligerency demonstrated by Russia since 1991.The capabilities of the Baltic Fleet became an issue for both NATO and Russia. A month before the 2016 purge a thorough investigation into the Baltic Fleet and its fifty or so ships was carried out. The results of the report apparently confirmed suspicions that the current fleet leadership had failed to improve the capabilities of the Baltic Fleet. Since the 1990s Russia has (especially in the last decade) replaced most of the older Cold War era warships it had to retire because they were inoperable. In 2008 the Baltic Fleet had 75 ships and after mandatory retirements because of age or years of little or no maintenance, the fleet was reduced to fifty ships that were mostly new. Much more money was given to the Baltic Fleet since 2010 for maintenance and training but that seemed to have little impact on the effectiveness of the fleet. The 2016 investigation confirmed that in detail and the government took action. Such was not the case with the rest of the fleet.

For over a century, Russia had four fleets (Northern, Pacific, Baltic and Black Sea). The latter two were virtually destroyed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. For over a decade Russia has been having political problems with Georgia and Ukraine, and could really use some additional (and modern) naval power in the Black Sea to help with this. To a lesser extent, the same situation applies in the Baltic, where Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania provided bases and often built much of the Baltic fleet. Poland, while not part of the Soviet Union, was a major naval ally, as was East Germany. The loss of Poland and East Germany reduced the Baltic fleet to a fraction of what it once was, and needed rebuilding. That was expected to take a decade, at which point the new ships would be in service, because most of the Soviet era ones will be dead of old age. Ship building goals could not be met and the Baltic and Black Sea fleets had lower priority. Since the 1990s, most new ships have gone to the Northern or Pacific fleets. Those two fleets provided bases and support for Russians SSBNs (nuclear powered subs carrying ballistic missiles). Now Russia is on the offensive to regain control of the Black Sea and then the Baltic but has to do it mainly with land forces.

Go here to read the rest.  From the Russian side the Ukrainian War has been an exercise in make believe, pretending that modern Russia is the same military colossus that the old Soviet Union was.  The Soviets managed that feat by keeping the living standards of their people pitiful, and dedicating up to 75% of their economy for military purposes.  A totalitarian regime, with vast engines of oppression could manage this.  Modern Russia cannot.  A drop in living standards of that magnitude would lead to revolt, and Putin is a pale imitation of Stalin, with his domestic murders numbered in the dozens and not in the millions.  The world has moved on and Putin is learning that  his dream of recreating the old Soviet Union will remain only his dream.

 

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Donald Link
Donald Link
Thursday, May 19, AD 2022 8:26am

Side note: The fleet has always had problems with maintenance and construction. The nuclear part in particular was known for radiation leaks and mechanical problems. Accounts for use of land forces in the near abroad and lack of air lift capability for distant “adventures”.

Art Deco
Art Deco
Thursday, May 19, AD 2022 10:02am

The Soviets managed that feat by keeping the living standards of their people pitiful, and dedicating up to 75% of their economy for military purposes.

I think there were disputes as to whether it was 12% or 25%. Never anywhere near 75%. (Both figures are what you’d see during a general mobilization).

Frank
Frank
Thursday, May 19, AD 2022 8:51pm

“CIA estimates were way too low for decades, which we found out after the Soviet Union fell.”
Has the CIA gotten anything important right, concerning the military capabilities of non-allied nations or terrorist movements, since it was formed? I’m beginning to suspect they have not.

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