From The Institute For The Study of War:
Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick W. Kagan
May 14, 7:00 pm ET
The Ukrainian destruction of significant elements of a Russian motorized rifle brigade that tried to cross a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River on May 11 has shocked prominent Russian milbloggers. Those bloggers have begun commenting on the incompetence of the Russian military to their hundreds of thousands of followers. The attempted river crossing showed a stunning lack of tactical sense as satellite images show (destroyed) Russian vehicles tightly bunched up at both ends of the (destroyed) bridge, clearly allowing Ukrainian artillerymen to kill hundreds and destroy scores of vehicles with concentrated strikes. The milbloggers who have hitherto been cheering on the Russian military criticized Russian armed forces leadership for failing to learn from experience in the war. They also expressed the concern that the constant pushing of Russia’s propaganda lines was making it hard for them to understand what was actually going on.
The effects of this change in tone and discourse by these milbloggers are uncertain but could be potent. People living under tightly censored regimes often trust individuals who seem to be independent of but generally aligned with the government more than the government line (even more than do citizens of democratic societies). The commentary by these widely read milbloggers may fuel burgeoning doubts in Russia about Russia’s prospects in this war and the competence of Russia’s military leaders (at least).
The destruction of the motorized rifle elements may also severely disrupt Russian efforts to isolate Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north. Russian troops made no attempts to advance in that area in the last 24 hours.
Russian forces continued operations to set conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk from the south, however, advancing on the town of Zolote, roughly 30 km south of Severodonetsk. Russian troops likely seek to secure the highway north from Zolote to Severodonetsk for their advance, but they may also seek to cut the last highway linking Severodonetsk with the rest of Ukraine via Bakhmut. They could try to strike northwest across the country from their current positions to cut that highway closer to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. The Russians are extremely unlikely to be able to take Bakhmut but they may be able to cut or render unusable the highway from Bakhmut to Severodonetsk if they can advance far enough along either of these possible routes.
Ukrainian forces will likely conduct counteroffensive operations to dislodge the Russians from around Izyum, according to Ukrainian officials. We have previously noted that Russian artillery fire directed to the west from around Izyum was more likely intended to disrupt such a counter-offensive than to set conditions for a Russian attack.
Russian forces continued their withdrawal from Kharkiv Oblast but will likely seek to hold a line east of Vovchansk to secure the ground line of communication (GLOC) running from Belgorod through Vovchansk to Izyum. The terrain in this area generally favors the defender, and the Russians have other GLOCs with which to supply Izyum, so the Ukrainians may not try to advance much farther to the east at this time.
Ukrainian defenders continued to fight in the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol despite horrific conditions and continued Russian attacks. The Ukrainian defense of Azovstal is still tying down Russian combat forces and inflicting casualties.
Key Takeaways
- Catastrophic Russian losses in a failed river crossing and the military incompetence displayed in that crossing have shaken the confidence of some prominent Russian milbloggers.
- Russian forces continue shaping operations for the Battle of Severodonetsk from the south even though those losses have at least temporarily disrupted their efforts from the north.
- Ukrainian forces announced that they will conduct a counteroffensive around Izyum.
- Russian forces continued to withdraw from northern Kharkiv Oblast, but will likely seek to hold a line defending their ground lines of communication from Belgorod via Vovchansk to Izyum.
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Lots of rumors floating around that Putin is dying of cancer. Eh, Wars give rise to more worthless rumors than any other activity known to man. I will believe it only when Moscow announces that Putin is dead. If Putin does die however, I predict a rapid pullout by Russia from Ukraine with the exception of Crimea and a land bridge to Crimea.
The scuttlebutt is that an associate of Putin’s was recorded on tape saying he was ill with ‘blood cancer’. That sounds like multiple myeloma or leukemia. Leukemia is sorted into four coarse types. Nowadays, people usually survive bouts of three of them (though death is still regrettably common). The fourth remains a killer. Multiple myeloma I believe you do not survive, but treatments developed in the last twenty years buy you more time; six years from your diagnosis is about the median.
Sean Spoontz, retired Navy aircrewman now military analyst with SOFREP.com, gives an interview yesterday to [that trusted news source] Newsweek, in which he asserts the Russian military has about 90 days of strength left to them at the rate of attrition they are suffering.
In fact he says, that estimate is “on the high side.”
An additional matter to consider is that the best fighting battle groups/regiments esp. the “Spetznaz” special forces of the Russian Army, have likely by now been rendered “battle ineffective” with over 25% casualties. Now the active BTG’s are undeniably poorly trained cannon fodder conscripts.
This recent attempted “naked” crossing of the Syversky-Donetsk River near Severodonetsk is all the more strategically insane in that, prior to attempting the crossing, the lumbering Russian military telegraphed the operation with large numbers of extremely noisy large tractors for at least 2-3 days moving through the forest and countryside to the crossing point, they with some of the bridge parts, the rest of the parts of the pontoon bridge being floated down the river from the Russian-occupied sector with river tugboats (this info from Ukrainian blogger Dennis Davydov and BBC mil analysts). Locals reported the tractor noise to Ukrainian command, according to Ukraine military reports, which dispatched engineers in advance to see what could be done. (Once again, the Russian army doesn’t understand the US Army principle of “Get there first, get there fast .”) The Ukrainian engineers assessed the likely crossing point and obtained GPS coordinates, and even though at this point they say they did not yet have Western and US tactical guided artillery, they were able to position the old Soviet 122mm howitzers in place about 10 miles away to wreak the devastating effect, waiting until the armored units were well on the bridge to nowhere. The Russians tried to cover the crossing with smoke grenades of course to no effect if you have infrared sensor drones snooping the area.
Now, for the even worse fact that has come out. After suffering this devastating initial crossing attempt, the Russian command ordered two more attempted crossings. Imagine being an armored personnel and coming up on this hopeless scene of death at the river and being told to cross.
This also indicates a strong likelihood that the armored-field commanders are simply going on a typically Russian fatalistic Death-ride and not reporting the actual facts to the High Command. What good would it do? You would be arrested for being a “defeatist.” Or Ukrainian sympathizer.