Ukraine War Analysis: March 6, 2022

From The Institute For the Study of War:

Key Takeaways March 5-6

• Russian forces spent the past 24 hours largely regrouping and preparing to renew offensive operations around Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Mykolayiv.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reports the presence of a large concentration of Russian forces west of Kharkiv that it assesses will launch a wide offensive southwest toward the Dnipro River, although no such offensive has begun as of this publication.
• Russia violated two Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire agreements, collapsing efforts to establish a humanitarian corridor to help evacuate civilians from Mariupol and Volnovakha on March 5 and 6.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has not demonstrated any willingness to de-escalate with Ukraine or the international community, nor has he provided reasonable demands that would lay the groundwork for de-escalation or negotiations.
• The Kremlin is likely laying the domestic information groundwork for a declaration of martial law in Russia should Russian President Vladimir Putin decide that mass mobilization and conscription are necessary to achieve his objectives.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin allowed for the confiscation of assets belonging to “corrupt” Russian officials on March 6, likely to acquire new revenue streams at the expense of alienating some supporters.
• The Kremlin is attempting to deter US or European bans on Russian oil exports by claiming that a ban would devastate world oil markets.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin compared Western sanctions to a “declaration of war” on March 5 as the Kremlin began to retaliate against foreign businesses.

Key Events March 4, 4:00 pm EST – March 6, 4:00 pm EST

Military Events:

The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offensive operations east and west of Kyiv, west of Kharkiv, and toward Mykolayiv-Odesa but have not yet initiated new large-scale ground attacks. Russia has increased aerial and artillery/rocket attacks on civilian positions and infrastructure, including known evacuation corridors. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted their second counterattack in two days, this time near Mariupol. The Ukrainian air force and air defense forces continue to operate, inflicting damage on Russian ground forces and disrupting Russian air and missile operations.

Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:

1)     Main effort—Kyiv: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis consist of a main effort aimed at enveloping and ultimately encircling the city from the west and supporting efforts along the Chernihiv and Sumy axes to encircle it from the northeast and east. Russian forces near Kyiv have continued to concentrate in preparation for resuming offensive operations both east and west of the city. They have conducted limited movements to advance the western envelopment but have not gained much ground.

2)    Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv; The Ukrainian General Staff assessed on March 5 that as many as 23 BTGs are concentrated likely west and northwest of Kharkiv and are preparing to resume offensive operations toward Lubny, Poltava, and Kharkiv itself.

3)    Supporting effort 2—Mariupol: The Russian encirclement of Mariupol continues and Russian forces continued to shell the city on March 5.

4)    Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances westward: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that three Russian BTGs of the 7th Airborne Division attacked toward Mykolayiv on March 5 but were repulsed. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on March 6 that Russia was preparing to bomb Odesa, although he offered no evidence for that claim and ISW has found no independent confirmation of it. Zelensky is almost certainly right that Russia will begin bombing Odesa in advance of ground or amphibious operations against the city, but the timing of such operations remains unclear.

Russia violated two Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire agreements, collapsing efforts to establish a humanitarian corridor to help evacuate civilians from Mariupol and Volnovakha on March 5 and 6.[1] Russia and Ukraine agreed to a March 5 ceasefire to create a humanitarian corridor for evacuating civilians and the wounded from Mariupol and nearby Volnovakha. Russia likely continued to target Ukrainian forces on March 5 in violation of the ceasefire. Russia and Ukraine agreed upon a subsequent ceasefire on March 6 starting at 10:00 am local time.[2] The International Committee of the Red Cross (IRCR) reported that evacuation attempts in Mariupol and Volnovakha again failed and Ukrainian officials claimed Russia again violated the ceasefire.[3] Russia denied that its forces violated the ceasefire and blamed the Ukrainian government for the failure of the humanitarian corridor.

• Ukraine’s Framing: Multiple Ukrainian officials claimed Russian attacks in Mariupol on March 5 and 6 closed the humanitarian corridor.[4] Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko and Mariupol Deputy Mayor Serhiy Orlov said Russian forces were “still bombing Mariupol“ on March 5 and called off evacuation efforts.[5] The head of Ukraine’s Donetsk Region administration, Pavlo Kirilenko, said in a Facebook post on March 6 that the second attempt to evacuate Mariupol residents failed.[6] Kirilenko claimed “the Russians began to regroup their forces and resumed heavy shelling of the city.”[7] Ukrainian Interior Ministry advisor Anton Gerashchenko and Ukrainian Minister for Reintegration Iryna Vereshchuk blamed Russian shooting along parts of the corridor between Mariupol and Zaporizhzhia for the failure to safely establish humanitarian corridors.[8]
• Russia’s Framing: Russian officials and Kremlin-supported media outlets claimed the Ukrainian government is disinterested in helping its citizens and said Ukraine blocked its citizens from evacuating Mariupol on March 5 and 6. Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed Russian forces followed the ceasefire order and accused “Ukrainian forces and national battalions of taking advantage of the declared [ceasefire] to regroup on defensive positions.”[9] Head of the National Center for Defense Control of the Russian Federation Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev stated on March 5 that “a catastrophic humanitarian situation had developed” in most of Ukraine and falsely claimed “the Nazis blocked thousands of Ukrainians and foreigners” from evacuating. Russian Defense Ministry Representative Major General Igor Konashenkov said on March 5 the Russian military went ahead with its offensive operations at 6:00 am Moscow time “due to Ukraine’s’ unwillingness to influence nationalists or extend [the ceasefire].”[10]

Go here to read the rest.  By now Putin recognizes that his war is stuck.  In the upcoming week he faces the prospect of the Ukrainians being better armed with weapons, especially anti-tank weapons, drones and, perhaps, fighter aircraft, from the West.  His economy is collapsing and domestic unrest in Russia is increasing.  Doubtless his generals are telling him that they cannot win in Ukraine with the resources they currently have.  They need air supremacy, a million troops, at least, and to cut off the Western border of Ukraine.

So what does Putin do?

1.Stay in place.  Not viable.

2.Roll the dice of war and hope his generals are wrong.  Tried and failed.  Might try again if Putin is stubborn and foolish.

3.Threaten the nuclear stick to get the West to stop aiding Ukraine.  Maybe.  Do that and Finland and Sweden are members of Nato, and Germany becomes a nuclear armed power overnight.  Impossible to see the US and Nato backing down at this point.

4.Negotiate.  Tried and failed.  Putin isn’t going to get what he wants at the negotiating table.

5.Declare victory and pull back to the Donbas states he has created.  Doubt if Putin could survive that domestically.

6.Prepare for a long war with martial law in Russia and the marshaling of Mother Russia’s full strength to crush Ukraine.

I predict two followed by six, unless Putin is toppled by a domestic coup.  Very dangerous times ahead.