A good source for accurate information about the War is the Institute for the Study of War:
- Russian forces have advanced rapidly on the eastern outskirts of Kyiv, likely from the Sumy axis, and may attempt to encircle and/or attack the capital on the east bank of the Dnipro in the coming 24-48 hours.
- Russian troops did not press a ground offensive against Kharkiv in the last 24 hours but have instead diverted forces to the west and southeast, likely supporting efforts against Kyiv and in and around Donbas respectively.
- Russian troops have surrounded Mariupol and are attacking it brutally to destroy it or compel its capitulation.
- Russian forces have renewed their ground advance on Mykolayiv, having secured Kherson city, likely to set conditions for a further attack toward Odesa. Russian naval infantry are likely poised to conduct amphibious landings near Odesa when Russian forces have secured or are close to securing a reliable ground route from Crimea to Odesa.
- The Kremlin dramatically limited Russia’s already isolated domestic information environment and criminalized unfavorable coverage of the war in Ukraine on March 4, setting conditions to improve the domestic efficacy of its information operations.
- Ukraine is attempting to increase the flow of information about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to Russian citizens to increase domestic Russian opposition to the war.
- The Kremlin set conditions to justify potential Russian conscriptions and more aggressive operations in Ukraine.
- The Russian Defense Ministry said foreign citizens fighting for Ukraine will not be considered legal combatants and will not be protected under international law.
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reiterated that Belarus will not enter the war in Ukraine but has likely already committed Belarusian troops.
- NATO rejected Ukraine’s request to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
- Russia has not yet followed through on its agreement with Ukraine to establish the humanitarian corridors that would enable civilian supply and evacuation.
- The US Department of Defense established a deconfliction line with its Russian counterpart to prevent accidental escalation near the Ukrainian and Belarusian borders.
- Finland and Sweden continued high-level discussions on NATO membership and multilateral defense measures.
Putin has not gotten the swift decapitation victory he sought. Traditionally when a plan goes awry in Russian military history adaptation to that fact is slow, and for a period the Russians still attempt to carry out the original plan, usually with disastrous results, at least short term. We seem to be in that stage of the War, with Putin committing too few troops to too many objectives, something that only made sense if the civilian Ukraine government collapsed quickly. Eventually the Russian generals will convince Putin that a new plan is necessary, but for now Putin is still trying to make his broken plan work.
Plenty of other military strategists assert the Russian army’s supply lines and Russia’s financing of “the incursion” are already dangerously stretched thin and perhaps nearly exhausted (why the Russian supply columns seem frozen for days), and the Russian air force’s supply of guided weaponry are either being kept in reserve or also exhausted. The Russian Air Force (acronym VVS) support of course has been a complete failure, and those who are strategists claim it is the typical internecine attitude of Air Force “superiority” and an unwillingness to submit to ground support demands—taking orders from the Army). Their missile weaponry is not “smart”, these experts say, but older sight-and-fire design, which brings aircraft into range of Ukrainian firehas resulted in losses to such ground fire.
The longer this war stretches on, with the significant financial strain on the creaking kleptocratic Russian economy and the logistics strain on the limited production of the armaments facilities at Tula and Rostenberg, it permits the reinforcement of US and NATO supplies and weaponry by air to Poland and Hungary (apparently Gen.Mark Milley himself actually accompanied a supply air shipment of Stingers, FGM-148 Javelins and other equipment two days ago, and supposedly that particular air facility is handling 14 incoming supply flights a day).
Will it be enough? The Ukrainians aren’t going to give up —unless Putin continues his practice of retributive annihilation of civilians, which hasn’t worked so far and actually has steeled Ukrainians’ resolve.