If you take a flat map
And move wooden blocks upon it strategically,
The thing looks well, the blocks behave as they should.
The science of war is moving live men like blocks.
And getting the blocks into place at a fixed moment.
But it takes time to mold your men into blocks
And flat maps turn into country where creeks and gullies
Hamper your wooden squares. They stick in the brush,
They are tired and rest, they straggle after ripe blackberries,
And you cannot lift them up in your hand and move them.
–A string of blocks curling smoothly around the left
Of another string of blocks and crunching it up–
It is all so clear in the maps, so clear in the mind,
But the orders are slow, the men in the blocks are slow
To move, when they start they take too long on the way–
The General loses his stars and the block-men die
In unstrategic defiance of martial law
Because still used to just being men, not block-parts.
Stephen Vincent Benet, John Brown’s Body
One of the many things largely overlooked in the Ukraine War coverage is the scale of it. Ukraine is just a bit smaller than Texas with around forty-one million people. The Russians are trying to conquer this immense area and large population with about 200k troops, only a fraction of whom are combat troops. It does not add up. Putin obviously was not expecting to have to fight a real war. I think he assumed the Ukrainian government would cave and he could install a puppet regime. Based upon prior statements by Putin, he clearly does not view Ukraine as a separate country and thinks it is in some sense Russian. As in all things, but especially in war, swallowing one’s own propaganda is always a very bad idea.
Watch this and it gives more context. https://t.co/syK470e4cS
— Dr Sandeep Parwaga (@drsparwaga) March 3, 2022
Update:
Interesting in a number of ways:
- Testament to how severe the fighting is becoming.
- Might be an indication that the Russians are using elite troops in an infantry capacity which is contrary to their usual doctrine. May indicate that non-elite units are simply proving too unreliable in combat.
- Possible that senior leaders are leading from the front, sometimes an indication of low morale in the rank and file. Doubtless the General was a very brave man, but it is a rare thing to see a Major General killed in combat in a contemporary war.
Don,
Just to start my “post” let me say that my Maternal Grandfather and My Great Uncle, his brother, were born in and came to America from Hostow/Hostiv, Galicia, Ukraine. Because of the discussions here, although I rarely post, I find the various opinions interesting. I wonder if the posters here, or YOU for that matter, Don, have read this post on Vox Cantoris Blog or a somewhat related post an another blog that I will put here, also. It seems the circumstances over there are very complicated. By the way, another Great Uncle was executed by Russians, in front of our/his family in about 1900, in Hostow/Hostiv. By the way, also read the many comments relating to this: https://voxcantor.blogspot.com/2022/03/colonel-douglas-macgregor-on-putin-and.html
The other blog post: https://abyssum.org/2022/03/02/from-time-immemorial-elitist-despots-have-started-wars-to-deflect-attention-from-domestic-political-crises/
I look forward to five years from now where we may understand what really happened.
After World War I Clemenceau was asked what he thought future historians would say as to the war guilt of World War I. Clemenceau said that he didn’t know, but he knew one thing they would not say: that Belgium invaded Germany.
Am I the only one that finds this whole thing extremely odd? You send 200,000 troops to conquer a large, well-equipped, modern country with little air and artillery support? That didn’t work for us with lots of air support against a country that drives camels to the office. There’s something very odd about this whole thing, and I don’t expect to find out what it is. All I see is Ukrainian propaganda and US propaganda – I’d see Russian propaganda too, were it more readily available here. But as to reality, something is just odd.
Apparently, Putin knew Xi’s cabbage in the White House would do what Osama did in 2014 and estimated the Uks would surrender rather than see their country ravaged by total war. One-hundred percent correct on item one. Majorly wrong on item two.
I beg to differ, Mac. Clemenceau was a tiger. Putin is a werewolf.
Am I the only one that finds this whole thing extremely odd?
Not odd at all. Putin simply gravely miscalculated, believing his own hype. An occupational hazard for autocrats.
It’s not odd bc he isn’t fighting like an American, go in, bomb hell out of it, then send in mop crew.
It’s as if he is surrounding it, to capture it. Maybe to remove the regime that was installed by the West?
I’ve just listened John Mersheimer on this. We, the West, are guilty for a lot of this.
Rest assured that Kamala will straighten this all out soon – (Speaking slowly, Harris began, “So, Ukraine is a country in Europe.”
“It exists next to another country called Russia,” she continued. “Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong, and it goes against everything that we stand for.”)
I’ve just listened John Mersheimer on this. We, the West, are guilty for a lot of this.
Mearsheimer bashes the West now as well as Israel? Nice change of pace I guess.
I’ll share a link.
https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf
I mean we do have the Midas touch in reverse. And it makes sense that people are falling over themselves that this is happening bc history isn’t taught much and borders aren’t respected much either. And big powers are called, well, big countries.
I mean, we got upset when that big country set up nukes in a small country (Cuba) aimed at us.
I mean, we got upset when that big country set up nukes in a small country (Cuba) aimed at us.
Ukraine has no nukes in it, except for any tactical nukes brought in by the Russian invaders.
The current regime in Ukraine has been courting NATO and the EU for a long time which means nukes on their doorsteps. That is how Russia views that not to mention the NATO agreement that the would not do that.
Out of respect for our own Monroe Doctrine, I respect their right to keep agreements and what they feel as a threat away.
Now we have Russia and China becoming closer allies because of canceling and sanctioning of Russia for something they viewed as a threat for a very long time.
There are already NATO countries around Russia. Side-effect of NATO being where escaped slaves of the Soviet Union ran to.
https://www.khou.com/article/news/world/nato-countries-around-russia-ukraine-crisis/85-2185bf3f-96a1-4356-8792-505c61d2f25b
Russia invading explicitly violates their agreement to not do so, if the Ukraine would give up their nukes.
They broke that agreement back in ’14.
Also– wow, who knew that a comedian could manage to run a ‘regime’ that has been ‘courting NATO for a long time’ in less than three years?
Makes one wonder what Putin’s nearly twenty years gone demand to be invited to NATO would be described as.
Let me just state I’m not Russian nor pro Russia or anything. I do respect history and pay attention to agreements.
If I respect our Monroe Doctrine then I respect Russia not wanting NATO or the EU on their border. That was their understanding from 1991.
I realize that Ukraine gave up this Nukes but you have to realize that Russia views it as a threat (EU and NATO) similar to them still having nukes.
As to the other countries that have been accepted into NATO that border, it may be a matter of time. I’m sure some will claim he is trying to reclaim old Russia when someone w sense on how Russia is viewing this, and what was promised, comes in and negotiates w them.
I personally think we need to get rid of NATO and the belief we gotta westernize all these countries.
I do respect that. Russia has been threatened. And they get to decide what they feel as a threat.
At the end of the day, it isn’t just a big country picking on a little country and we gotta stop smacking theses powers over the head thinking nothing will come of it.
….lady, why are you not supporting any of the claims you made, failing to respond to the counter-arguments, and responding to objections that nobody made?
Saying the same thing over and over doesn’t actually support it, and for a shock Russia actually violating agreements is way, way more relevant than your affection for the Monroe doctrine.
👌
*Let me just state I’m not Russian nor pro Russia or anything. *
Are you sure?
… you have to realize that Russia views it as a threat (EU and NATO) similar to them still having nukes.*
Convenient, but not equivalent
I personally think we need to get rid of NATO and the belief we gotta westernize all these countries.
Was Turkey “westernized”?
Russia has been threatened. And they get to decide what they feel as a threat.
Ukraine didn’t threaten anyone, but they havn’t just been threatened, they’ve been invaded. About once a decade or so. They don’t have a lot of options as to how to defend themselves against Russia.
… it isn’t just a big country picking on a little country *
Maybe not, but that’s the large and small of it (pun intended). A very large country is shelling the civilian population of a much smaller country whom they have been slaughtering for centuries. That’s the elephant in the room that no amount of propaganda can whitewash.
I think CAG’s rebuttal is correct. I do pray each morning that no more lives – either Ukrainian or Russian – are lost, and that God softens President Putin’s heart to stop this madness. I do understand that NATO has picked up former Warsaw Pact countries into its alliance, and Russia views that as a threat to its defense. But invading a sovereign country supposedly to stop it from joining the EU and / or NATO? The initiation of force is always wrong. Even if Ukraine had joined NATO, it still had not militarily provoked Russia – there was no Ukrainian initiation of force. So President Putin is simply wrong to have ordered this invasion. And if he continues with an unrepentent heart, then God may let him face the fate that Benito Mussolini – Il Duce – faced in the last century.
PS, I am not blind that Ukrainian governmental and oligarchical corruption probably runs as deeply as Russian govermental and oligarchical corruption. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has done some questionable things in the past too (though his misdealings are far exceeded by those of President Putin). There’s plenty of wrong on both sides of the fence (as there always is). But I will go back to what I said before: the Russian initiation of force against Ukraine is morally wrong period, no matter what supposed provocation the Kremlin imagines.
I gonna turn to John Mearsheimer to explain why Russia was provoked. There is bleed thru in beginning.
What I am asking myself is who benefits most from Russia doing this? China? WEF? Or Russia just being Russia. If we are gonna sanction big countries who pick on small countries, do we do the same to Saudi Arabia who is warring w Yemen?
https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc
“What I am asking myself is who benefits most from Russia doing this?”
Obviously Putin thinks he benefits the most since he ordering it is the only reason the invasion occured. This is all part of Putin’s project to reconstruct the Soviet Union. Seeking to put the blame any place else is conspiracy theory rubbish.
In case I haven’t provided this here: Russia’s 2021 GDP was $1.7 trillion, half rising [thanks to China Joe and Greta Thunberg, PhD]. For perspective, declinng NYS 2021 GDP was $1.9 trillion. The US GDP was $24 trillion in 2021, and the EU’s was approximately that magnitude.
What’s distressing about this (among other things) is that since the Napoleonic period if not earlier there has been an escalating disinclination to liquidate sovereign states. The Latin American state system emerged during the period running from 1810 to 1853, and, while there were some pitiless wars among them over the succeeding 30-odd years, the only significant change since was the secession of Panama from Colombia. You look at Tropical and Southern Africa, and it’s in essence the 1917 map bar on and around the Horn of Africa, and there has been only one attempt at a hostile takeover of a whole territory.. The boundaries of the Arab states and those adjacent were sorted during the period running from 1911 to 1924; the two places that have been threatened with partition or annihilation have been Israel and Kuwait. The Partition of India in 1947-48 was a ghastly business on the ground, but the partition itself was agreed upon by the politicians. The states of the Far East were in existence in 1918 either as sovereign or as distinct dependents of one or another outside power. (Korea was not bisected at that time and VietNam was in three pieces held by France).
You stop and think about it, the only hostile attempts at absorption apart from Hitler and Stalin’s stomp through Europe in 1939-47 have been the House of Saud’s conquest of the Hijaz (1924), North Korea’s failed effort to take South Korea (1950-53), India’s seizure of Portugal’s possessions on the Malabar coast in 1961, the conquest of South VietNam (1959-75), Ethiopia’s long-term failure in Eritrea (1952-91), Saddam Hussein’s attempt to take Kuwait (1990-91), and Indonesia’s failure in East Timor (1976-99). The population of five of these seven did not exceed 1.5 million at the time the attempt was made and in the other two you had rival governments without much of a pedigree or much legitimacy fighting to control what had at one time been a single state.
The Russian revolution of 1917 was successful largely because the population was tired of a war that brought them nothing but misery. There is no rule that says events can not be repeated.
The Russian revolution of 1917 was successful largely because the population was tired of a war that brought them nothing but misery. There is no rule that says events can not be repeated.
I don’t think Russia’s current commitment requires a general mobilization, much less 30 months worth of a general mobilization. A population’s level of tolerance is not fixed, thuogh. Note, the premises of this invasion are madcap; I do wonder to what degree street-level Russians subscribe to them. There was pan-German sentiment in around Germany during the interwar period, but it was a minority viewpoint outside of the Bohemian-Moravian borderlands; there is considerable pan-Roumanian sentiment in Roumania and Moldova, but it is otiose. Effective interest in a merger of the United States and anglophone Canada is nil. There used to be a lot of pan-Arab sentiment in the Near East and North Africa; writing around 1980, Rashid Khalidi admitted that pan-Arabism was passe; only one attempt was ever made at federating a pair of Arab countries, and that attempt did not last three years. It wouldn’t surprise me to discover that the man in the street in Russia has no more interest in occupying Kharkiv than his American counterpart has in occupying Saskatoon.