A good video explaining why almost all polls on the presidential race are completely worthless, just like in 2016 in October which showed wide Clinton leads in most polls. At the last moment the polls tightened up as pollsters had to admit it was going to be close to retain any credibility. Polling makes professional wrestling seem honest by comparison.
To show how over the lot polling is, a current Democracy Institute poll shows Trump up by one nationally. They got the Brexit vote right and the 2016 Presidential election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kthHyG4AvTU
What do I think? Right now it is a two to four point race with Biden and Trump trading places depending upon events. The problem for Biden is that the Trump voters are enthusiastic and his voters not so much. Enthusiastic voters vote. The campaigns are acting as if it is an extremely tight race to be decided in the Upper Midwest and Pennsylvania. We shall see.
There seems to be pumping and lever pulling by that man behind the curtain.
Who REALLY believes what the media and their polls keep telling us?
No clue what to make of the polls. I assume some of it is just the vagaries of polling when you’re not willing to do the legwork and you take convenience samples and massage them. (I also assume some of these polls are fraudulent battle-space preparation). I’m also expecting massive fraud in the states permitting mail-in voting. We really will not know who won.
I’m surprised by the Texas pull. They are swimming in cash.
I know that I have received more ads in the mail than all previous presidential elections in my life combined (in MN). Both sides certainly believe that MN could go for Trump.
There has been a lot of noise about “turning Texas blue.” It is probably a wise move by Biden campaign. If Tx were to turn blue, it would do so on its own, and not from campaign buys. Money can be better spent elsewhere.
As for polling, it is very similar to covid stats. It is so hard to get accurate data, assuming you even want to, that the stats are next to useless. Just like asymptomatic carriers, how may people are “asymptomatic” Trump voters? Why would you give your opinion, in this day and age, to some anonymous voice over the phone or some spam text when it could mean a gang of BLM/Antifa thugs outside your door the next day?
If the Biden campaign is pulling Tx ads, it may be to throw more money on downstream races. More Soros DAs and judges means more free reign for BLM/Antifa to come to town.
If the Biden campaign is pulling Tx ads, it may be to throw more money on downstream races.
Doubtful. Every dime the Biden campaign has will be spent on the Presidential race.
If they’re spending money in Minnesota, the Biden campaign is in trouble. That would be like the Trump campaign spending money in Wyoming or the Dakotas.
Of course, it would help Biden’s cause if BLM would stop making in-kind contributions to the Trump campaign, like they’ll do again in Wauwatosa Wisconsin tomorrow night.
Part of the poll problem is that they are nationwide polls. Nationally it doesn’t matter. All that matters are the electoral college numbers. The national polls are oversampling Democrats 2-3 percentages than the high numbers four years ago. They are also giving more weight to California and New York. Those two states could be 100% for Biden, heavily skewing a poll but not change their electoral vote counts. They are trying to push the voters.
Good. No need to risk catching the ‘rona if Biden is going to win anyways, eh? Democrats can safely stay home, knowing the outcome of the election is already assured.
I may not be entirely sarcastic about the second point.
“If they’re spending money in Minnesota, the Biden campaign is in trouble. That would be like the Trump campaign spending money in Wyoming or the Dakotas.”
This is not true. Minnesota was the second closest state that Trump lost last time. While Trump does not need Minnesota to win he probably needs to win it to get back to last time’s electoral college number since he’s more likely to win Minnesota than Arizona. It would be more akin to Trump buying air time in North Carolina or Georgia.
“Minnesota was the second closest state that Trump lost last time.”
True, but it is also a state that hasn’t gone Republican in a Presidential election year since 1972. If Biden were eight points ahead he wouldn’t be putting money in Minnesota.
Derek Chauvin made bail today. Local news is hyping it up as a grave injustice and acting as though this means that he will be declared innocent without trial.
As I have said on numerous occasions, when the press does this they are engaging in treason. There is no way that they can make such reports and not be intending to incite a riot, not at this point. I would not shed a tear if they were jailed.
But if they think that this is a good idea because it will cause chaos before the election, they are wrong. Another burst of chaos in the cities will only convince the metro area to go for Trump; the rest of the state (other than maybe Rochester) is already on board.
Chauvin likely IS innocent. His case practically screams sovereign immunity (with the proviso, based on what is publicly known at this time).
If Biden were eight points ahead he wouldn’t be putting money in Minnesota.
Call it the Floyd effect.