Interesting for three reasons:
- It is of registered voters and traditionally Democrats do better among registered voters.
- It is from CBS, a network not notably favorable to Republicans to put it mildly.
- Questions like this may be a much better gauge of strength than the horse race polls which consistently underestimate Trump’s strength among voters.
When you ask the person what they expect it would be nice to know if they optimistic or pessimistic .
You can figure that out by right-track/wrong-track and better-off/worse off personally questions.
The real trick is trying to figure out if people are answering honestly. Six, seven months ago, I’d have said I expected Trump to win. Today, I’m not sure. If I knew I was talking to CBS, I’d be tempted to lie and say I expected Trump to win.