As we get closer in to the election I will report on tidbits of political news that I find significant. Often they will be tidbits either ignored by most of the mainstream media, or the significance of which is missed by the media:
- Cops-The National Association of Police Organizations (police unions) endorsed Trump. They refused to give an endorsement in either 2012 or 2016. Trump will make the most of the Blue Wall who will doubtless be a key feature at Trump rallies going forwards. Considering how many accused felons I have gotten off the hook over the years, I make an odd celebrant of the police, but choosing between cops and rioters is an easy choice for me, and I suspect that it will be an easy call for most voters. A major, and overlooked, win for Team Trump.
- Polls-The polls are currently dismal for Trump. Most of them began zooming south during the riots. Now why would that be? A Pennsylvania poll gives us a big clue:
Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 13 percentage points among all Pennsylvania registered voters, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Wednesday. But most who were surveyed also believe they live among an untold number of “secret Trump voters” who could ultimately swing the November election.
More than half of those surveyed said they believe their communities are populated by people who support Trump but have not told anyone. Voters were split on whom they expect to win Pennsylvania this year, with 54% saying they were surprised that Trump prevailed four years ago.
Go here to read the rest. Now why on Earth would a Trump voter not wish to proclaim his allegiance? Aside from being hounded on social media, potentially losing their jobs and being physically attacked? 2020 the year in which the Silent Majority is the Silent Trump Majority.
- 3. Sweet Home Alabama-The Trump endorsed candidate won over veteran former Senator Jeff Sessions by 24 points. Most polls had it a 7 point race with Sessions behind. If there is that much secret Trump support in ruby red Alabama how much in States much less congenial for Trump backers.
Thanks Don. We needed that. Here’s Mundabor with more good news.
‘Cancel Culture Slowly On The Way Out’
https://mundabor.wordpress.com/2020/07/16/cancel-culture-slowly-on-the-way-out/
Thx, Don.
I was listening to Andrew Klavan yesterday:
https://youtu.be/pYoI0IO6jm8?t=2039
And his interview with Olsen was pretty depressing. Henry is a pretty fair, non-partisan guy who basically said Trump has no visible chance, even acknowledging that the “hidden voter” factor was usually shown as only being 1 or 2 percentage points difference and that wasn’t enough for Trump to climb out of his hole.
Klavan commented on it further in this episode:
https://youtu.be/Qm51_ezSKl8?t=401
Of course since I work with data too I don’t blame the man, but it does make me wonder. What if? What if the media has warped things SO badly, that polls are now utterly worthless? Such a consequence would be a huge uphevel of everything washington. Would it finally be the wake up call to the beltway on just how out of touch they’ve become?
I do know part of me was ready for this all to be over with back in February. Of 2019.
“even acknowledging that the “hidden voter” factor was usually shown as only being 1 or 2 percentage points difference and that wasn’t enough for Trump to climb out of his hole.”
Heard it all before in 2016. Most of the polls tightened about a week before the election, but for most of the year Trump was running far behind Clinton, often by double digits. We had a test run last time which established that in a general election most polls radically understate Trump’s strength. The forces that caused a hidden Trump vote last time only have intensified this time.
Money quote from the article M.Dowd linked:
“It is impossible that Trump is 10,12,15 points behind Biden and slays him in fundraising”
Especially when you consider he beat HC while being outspent by double or triple.
At the present moment it is easier, and more fruitful, to talk about religious differences than political ones. Probably because secularism has shunted it aside so that it barely registers in our personalized, intersections politics.
Polls have lost all authenticity in my view, and Caller I.D. may have killed them. You can’t get a valid sample when so many people refuse to pick up the phone to anyone they don’t know. A pollster who can’t get a valid sample will use an invalid one and monkey with the results. Heck, they probably do that anyway. 😁
Agree with Frank. I get polled all the time. I suspect it’s because I’m on a call list of people willing to answer a political opinion survey. I’m probably also on a list of middle aged, white male college graduates who self identify as strong conservatives, that they consult when building their poll.
They spoke about this on Limbaugh today. A man, pro-Trump I believe, said he would lie to any pollster who got a hold of him. Why? They had his phone number. And you can search for someone if you have their number. You might have to pay for it, but it’s not that expensive. And is the pollster going to hand over your info to the Thugs if you poll wrong?
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I am debating putting a Trump sign in my yard. Yes? No?
DJH, buy the sign. If you live in a city, only put it up the day before the election, otherwise it will be stolen. If you live in the country, you can openly display it, it will blend in with all of the other Trump signs.
Evidence for random polls aren’t random: Earlier today, for the second, maybe third election in a row, a polling firm tried to include me for their Iowa elections poll, even though I live on the other side of the Big Sioux. Now, I happen to know there’s a guy in Cedar Rapids who I share a name with ( I know because I’ve gotten mail from a business addressed to him. Somebody’s mail sort got fouled up before they sold their mailing list.) So I guess some polling outfit sold my number to one or more other polling outfits as someone willing to answer opinion polls, and because I’m cross listed with this other guy, they think I live in Iowa.
Maybe I should have messed with their sample and said I was registered to vote in Iowa.