Just to keep track of the nonsense that has wrecked our economy and generally made our politicians run around as if their fool heads were on fire, each day I publish the corona virus total death toll in the US based upon the latest data I can find. A single death is an immense tragedy if you love the person. However, we are not talking about love, but rather public policy, which should always involve a sober analysis of risk and cost. Please recall that in a bad normal flu year our death toll in the US can be as high as 90,000.
Note: this will be a total death toll since the beginning of this bad farce, and not a daily toll. As of the beginning of June 12 the claimed, as suspect as that claim is, death toll is 116,029.
I don’t think the comparison to the flu death toll is a particularly fair one. Absent the mitigation efforts the COVID-19 toll would have been significantly higher. How much higher is an important and fascinating question, and I imagine that will be debated for quite some time. Were the mitigation efforts worthwhile? There is no formula that can answer that with any precision or confidence, though without question federal and state policies have all been imperfect. Both sides of this debate include simpletons who interpret this pandemic as a self-serving political issue, rather than a serious challenge involving the kind of multi-disciplinary competing considerations that you and I know are appropriate
Have the media exaggerated risks? Almost certainly, due to an admixture of genuinely publicly-spirited concern over complacency, a desire to sell their product through fear, and an enthusiasm for having a weapon with with to bludgeon federal and state administrations they dislike. But there have been irrational “its just the flu” types too, including many who remained obstinately oblivious to the risk to others, especially those in vulnerable cohorts.
I have generally been reluctant to criticize the President or governors given that they have had to make decisions involving difficult competing considerations with very imperfect information. That said, the stubbornness of governors like Pritzger and Whitmer when presented with examples of astonishingly inconsistent policies has been beyond the pale.
Mike:
I think we may have a signal test by the end of this month: the possible spike in cases among protestors, rioters and looters who were definitely not social distancing. If it occurs, the “tutiorists” (the “hide or die” mob) will have some vindication. If that spike does not occur, the decision must go the “laxists” (the “free at last” guys). Time will tell -and quickly.