Thursday, March 28, AD 2024 4:25am

‘Tis Cruel to Be Kind:
Part I. On Government Folly

I do repent; but heaven hath pleas’d it so
To punish me with this, and this with me,
That I must be their scourge and minister.
I will bestow him, and will answer well
The death I gave him. So again good night.
I must be cruel only to be kind.
Thus bad begins and worse remains behind.”—William Shakespeare; “Hamlet, Act 3, Scene 4”

(Featured image from Wikimedia Common, Fair95)

INTRODUCTION

The last line of the quote above, “Thus bad begins and worse remains behind,” epitomizes our pandemic situation. In this first post I want to illustrate instances of government folly, focusing on my state government (Pennsylvania).  I also want to issue a retraction of a motto in one of my recent posts: “The road to reality is paved with numbers.”   That motto is true only if the numbers are put forth honestly, and that has not always been the case, as I’ll demonstrate in Part II.

The logical order of presentation would be statistics first, and then government folly in the face of these numbers.  However, if any readers were still with me, that would probably drive 90% of them away.  So let’s be illogical and talk about the folly of Pennsylvania state government.  (I’m sure I could cite other state governments, but I don’t really know what those are doing, except for isolated headlines.)

PENNSYLVANIA STATE GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS ARE NOT DOING GOOD

To start off, I’ll quote a few headlines from recent issues of our local paper, the Bloomsburg Press-Enterprise, and from other sources, then explain what they signify:

  1. “Geography, population complicate reopening” (Bloomsburg, PE, 25 April,p.5)
  2. “Official rails at death reporting procedures” (Bloomsburg, PE, 22 April, p.1)
  3. “State rule angers commissioners” (Bloomsburg, PE, 22 April, p.1)
  4. “Bill aims to clear up inconsistencies in how COVID-19 deaths are reported” (Fox43.com, 26 April)
  5. “Levine: quick return to normal ‘unlikely’ amid reopening” (Pittsburgh NPR & AP, 27 April)

ITEMS 1 and 5: Pennsylvania’s Governor, Tom Wolf, has decreed that opening will go by regions rather than counties.  Shown below is a Pennsylvania map of covid-19 incidence by county and the designated regions for reopening:

i
Images are taken from PA dept. of health. The top shows incidence of covid-19 cases by county, ranging in deepening shades of red from less than 5 (Northwest PA) to deepest red, 2000 to 500,000 (Southeast, Philadelphia and suburbs).    Here is Governor Wolf’s decree on how reopening will occur:

“A region will be deemed ready to reopen and return to work based on the incidence rate of COVID-19 cases per capita. The target goal for a reopening is an average of less than 50 cases per 100,000 people over a period of 14 days.” (as quoted here.)

Now that criterion obviously flies in the face of common sense.  First, none of these regions are homogeneous with respect to the reported incidence of covid-19.  For example, looking at the Southcentral, the range is from lightest to darkest.  And what does “average of less than 50 cases per 100,000 people over a period of 14 days” mean?   Does it mean that you take the number of total cases, day by day, add them up, divide by 14 and then multiply by 100,000/county population. and if that number’s less than 50, the region can reopen? What is “incidence rate?” The incidence, or the rate of change (daily) of incidence? Arbitrary in the extreme.

My own county currently has 48 cases, and the number has remained approximately constant over the past 10 days.  But our population is only 18,000 so that to achieve Gov. Wolf’s requirement, we would have to have less than 9 cases.   Or does it mean the number of new cases per day must be less than, for our county, 9 (a more reasonable requirement)?  Were that the case, then my county could have been open from the beginning.

ITEM 2: Columbia County Coroner, Jeremy Reese, and other county coroners have complained to Pennsylvania state legislators that a new requirement, applications for death certificates be filed electronically, has led to delays in issuing death certificates.   While some coroners are familiar with the software, most doctors are not, and can’t take time to learn it during the current crisis. So the death certificates have been delayed, as families have learned to their sorrow.

ITEM 3: Columbia County Commissioners had to sign a non-disclosure agreement with the state in order that covid-19 information be made available to first responders.   They were justifiably angry about this requirement.

ITEM 4: I urge the reader to go to the linked article to get the complete story.   The problem:  a 1955 law requires “a view of the body” for death certification.  Because this isn’t always done, coroners aren’t getting accurate data for covid-19 deaths, and they believe the State Department of Health may not be issuing correct mortality statistics.  I quote from the article:

“The only problem is the Department of Health overstepping their boundaries…We’re keeping accurate statistics here, and they’re starting to play with the numbers.”  Jeff Connor, Franklin County Coroner

FINAL THOUGHTS

I’m convinced that when the government says “we’re here to help you” it’s time to be wary.   My own state, Pennsylvania has a Democratic administration (a Governor who proclaims his experience in private business , but who sold the family business off early) and a head of the State Health Department, Dr. Levine, who does not inspire confidence.  (Go to the linked article in Item 5 for a demonstration.)

The national direction has, I believe, taken a wrong turn.   As a recent article in The American Thinker puts it, the standards for reopening are rigged and unrealistic.

Most important, the direction has been wrong from the start.  There’s a post in this blog that makes the point about losing herd immunity.  If a second wave of covid-19 comes and antibodies have not developed naturally, we’re going to be in serious trouble again.   The correct procedure from the beginning (and if this is Monday morning quarterbacking, so be it) should have been to shelter the elderly and vulnerable—those with pre-existing conditions—and let the rest of the population undergo infection with no or non-severe symptoms.

In part II, I’ll try to show what the numbers  are telling us. Some insight can be gleaned even though the statistics are flawed.  Using a “Numbers” spreadsheet, I’ve followed the statistics for “confirmed” US cases, deaths, recovered cases; Pennsylvania confirmed cases, deaths; Montgomery county (Philadelphia suburb) cases, deaths; Montour county (rural, north-central PA) cases, deaths; S. Korea “confirmed” cases, deaths, recovery.   The locales were chosen to illustrate different environmental situations (and different ways of coping with covid-19).   For the US and S. Korea data were taken from the Johns Hopkins World Map. The Pennsylvania data were taken from the PA Dept. of Health website.

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T. Shaw
T. Shaw
Tuesday, April 28, AD 2020 5:54am

Who benefits?

Lock downs are largely political theater, BS, and TV. They are not working and are destroying states’ economies and tax bases. They keep “raising the bar.”

Think: Why (aside from the blatant fact they are [expletive-deleted] morons) does China Joe’s America love lock downs?

I’m not sure about the Fox affiliate. Bloomberg and NPR are mouthpieces for the CCP and the crazies on the left.

My opinion: They decided the only way to beat Trump was exacerbating. perceived pandemic devastation and fomenting economic, fiscal and societal collapse. Sick.

Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus
Tuesday, April 28, AD 2020 6:57am

COVID-19 dominates where Democrats dominate. Solution? Lock the Democrats down and let everyone else go free. Yeah, I know. I am bad, very bad.

John F. Kennedy
John F. Kennedy
Tuesday, April 28, AD 2020 7:54am

Here’s what my Governor in Ohio thinks we should do.
https://www.wlwt.com/article/ohio-gov-dewine-launches-virtual-spirit-week/32288169
I guess he thinks we’re in preschool.

Donald R. McClarey
Reply to  John F. Kennedy
Tuesday, April 28, AD 2020 8:05am

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced a virtual spirit week that starts on Monday.

The governor said its part of an effort to have some lighthearted fun amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The week starts with Pajama Day on Monday where Ohioans stay in their pajamas all day, even during meetings.

Tuesday is Garden Day, when the governor encourages Ohioans to plant in their gardens.

On Wednesday, residents and their families are asked to dress like their frontline heroes (doctors, nurses, truck drivers), draw a picture or share an appreciation video.

Spirit Day is Thursday and Ohioans are encourages to show love for their favorite school or sports team.

On the last day, Friday, it’s Pizza Day. Ohioans are encourages to order a pizza or make your own.

Can you imagine that anyone thought that this would be met with anything but curses from most of the public?

John F. Kennedy
John F. Kennedy
Tuesday, April 28, AD 2020 8:46am

Don, you are still living in the past. My wife, bless her, thought it was strange but had no problem with it. Now imagine what the people in their 20s to 40s, childless with dogs, who act as if they are in perpetual childhood, feel about it? What a guy!

John F. Kennedy
John F. Kennedy
Tuesday, April 28, AD 2020 8:54am

Dewine and Amy Opening Theme
https://youtu.be/awc0blNamSo
It should be a Twilight Zone theme variation.

Donald R. McClarey
Reply to  John F. Kennedy
Tuesday, April 28, AD 2020 8:55am

I am handicapped JFK as I grew up in a time when most adults were adults rather than children in adult bodies. My sainted mother and father would have had short and pungent comments about any loon of a governor who suggested this. Your point is well-taken. I can’t imagine any of this having been done much before 1992. The infantilization of the public is one of the more dire developments over the past three decades.

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