Predictions of Things Past

The end of the year signals that it is time for me to make predictions for next year, something I will do later this week.  However, first we will have a look at my predictions for last year:

1.   The Republicans will take back the House in November, either outright on election day, or through party switches between election day and the swearing in of the new Congress in 2011.

Well, that was certainly on the money!

2.   The Republicans will take back the Senate in November, either outright on election day, or through party switches between election day and the swearing in of the new Congress in 2011.  I am assuming that Joe Lieberman will caucus with the Republicans if the Republicans have 50 seats.

Nope, although the Republicans came close with 47 seats, representing a total gain for the year of seven seats for the Republicans which was a good, solid performance in a year when the contested seats up were mainly in states that had gone Democrat in 2008.

3.   The economy will continue in the doldrums next year with the unemployment rate not getting lower than 9%.

Unfortunately this prediction was entirely accurate.  The unemployment rate is currently 9.3% for the nation and never got below 9%.  Go here to view a graph.

4.    Regime change will occur in Iran with the Mullahs being toppled by a popular insurrection.

Sadly no, although the mismanagement of the economy of Iran might yet eventually topple the regime.

5.    Pope Benedict’s Anglican Initiative will prove amazingly successful  with ever increasing numbers of Anglicans and Episcopalians swimming the Tiber to participate.

True!  The mass announcement of Five Anglican bishops in November that they were converting to Rome merely being the tip of a large movement.

6.    Two cabinet members in the Obama administration will resign.

True, if one counts Rahm Emmanuel former Chief of Staff as a member of the cabinet, which I do.  The other cabinet member was Peter Orszag, the director of the Office of Management and Budget.

7.    US forces will replicate the success of the surge in Iraq in Afghanistan.

Sadly no, with the conflict still very much up in the air.

8.     At least two states will default on some of their debt obligations during the coming year.

Not quite yet, but several states, including Illinois, are in de facto default with creditors waiting many months for payment, and with states borrowing to meet pension obligations.

9.     A Draft Palin movement for 2012 will gather steam.

Grass roots efforts are supporting her candidacy throughout the country.  The question of course is whether she wishes to run in 2012.

10.   A major breakthrough in the development of cold fusion technology will be announced.

No.  I should have predicted a breakthrough in bilocation instead.

11.    A major financial scandal will erupt involving Tarp funds being used to bribe members of Congress.

 Plenty of minor scandals, but nothing major yet.  We will see what the new year brings.

12.    McClarey will be wrong on some of his predictions.

Always the safest of predictions.

One Comment