Into the Storm

 

Tomorrow is election day.  I am going to make a prediction that will come true.  As in 2004, the exit polls are going to show that the Democrat candidate for President is beating the Republican candidate for President by a very wide margin.

Due to sampling bias, a greater unwillingness of Republican voters to participate in exit polls, and the fact that most  media organizations are clearly in the tank for Senator Obama, the exit polls will be proclaiming him the overwhelming victor.  Don’t believe it.  For a whole host of reasons, there is good reason to doubt the accuracy of most polling this year, and exit polling, based on 2004, may well be the most inaccurate of all.  This is a tight election and your vote matters this year just as much as it did in 2004.

5 Responses to Into the Storm

  • Daddio says:

    Very interesting. I hope you’re right. But the article says “the flaws did not produce a single incorrect projection of the winner in a state on election night”. So, while the popular vote numbers may be off, I still worry that the state by state electoral predictions are accurate.

    Any other info to encourage me on that one?

  • Donald R. McClarey says:

    The only reason there were no incorrect projections is because the networks quickly realized the exit polls were garbage when comparing actual votes to exit poll results. The exit polls were off by 6.5 points overall in Kerry’s favor. If the networks had called states based upon the exit polls, many states would have been called for Kerry that went for Bush.

    Here is a good article on the subject: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_overlooked_exit_poll_quest.php

  • Tito Edwards says:

    What Donald said.

    It’s interesting in 2004 how a state like Maine which was heavily contested was quickly called for Kerry with barely 1% of the votes coming in. But for West Virginia where Bush was defeating Kerry handily, it wasn’t called for Bush until near midnight with Bush crushing Kerry and 90% of the precincts reporting in.

    I hope they don’t do this same garbage again come election night.

  • Obamacan says:

    I pity anyone who is holding out hope that this election can still be won by a Party whose ideals have been proven to be ineffective and out-of-step with Main Stream America. For the good of the US as well as the world we should all pray that enough Americans have wised up over the last 8 years and will do the right thing and vote for Barack. Go Dems!!!!

  • Donald R. McClarey says:

    “I pity anyone who is holding out hope that this election can still be won by a Party whose ideals have been proven to be ineffective and out-of-step with Main Stream America.”

    I concur. We merely differ as to the party in question.

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