One of the few polls that predicted Trump would prevail in 2016. It also accurately predicted the Brexit vote in the UK in 2016.
The last Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll gave the US President a two point lead and landed just after he went into hospital with coronavirus.
Significantly, the President has, according to the latest findings, maintained a four point lead of 49 percent to 45 percent in the key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
It means he is on course to easily win the electoral college by 326 to 212 votes against his Democrat rival in a result which would shock the world even more than his astonishing defeat of Hilary Clinton in 2016.
The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll has throughout the campaign been one of the few to predict a Trump victory since March.Â
This is because unlike other polls it only looks at people identifying as likely voters instead of just registered to vote and it has tried to identify the shy Trump vote.
According to this latest poll almost eight in ten (79 percent) of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends and family compared to 21 percent of Biden supporters.
Go here to read the rest.
I’m a little confused why those 79% of Trump supporters will admit it to this poll, but not others. Still, reasons for hope. Praying and fasting!
Most polls simply have not asked those types of questions astonishingly enough.
And the undecided are Trump voters who don’t want to say they’re Trump voters.
It is possible we might actually have a pretty good idea of the result by the end of Tuesday evening. Trump has lead in Ohio for quite a while, and things look good in Florida which should be able to call a result that night. Now very respected pollster Ann Selzer confirms that Trump is up in Iowa by a comfortable margin. As our favorite pollster Rich Baris notes:
“Tell me, what Republican candidate has won Iowa and Ohio in a romp, put Florida to bed by 9PM, and lost the election?”
Trump would still have to take one of PA, MI, WI or MN (or both Nevada and NH) to get to 270, but convincing wins in OH, FL and IA would be highly suggestive of a good outcome. Also look to NH as a kind of bell weather. Trump barely lost it in 2016, and if it is called for Trump Tuesday evening that would be another good sign.
And signs are the best we are likely to have because it is unlikely that any of PA, MI, WI or MN (or NV) will be called Tuesday night. That said, in the unlikely case WI or MN is not super close it is conceivable one of them will tumble Tuesday night, and if it is for Trump it might really be over.
I am going to cast caution to the wind here. First, I totally understand why even most people who are forecasting a Trump victory are doing so carefully, even tentatively. For the professionals it is a necessary hedge against disaster for their businesses and reputations. I do believe “Focus Group Frank” Luntz is correct that the credibility of the big media pollling organizations will be finally and fully destroyed by a Trump victory. Hope you and your colleagues can learn to code, Mr. Luntz. 🙂
For the rest of us, I believe it is a natural tendency toward caution or even pessimism in the face of the unrelenting five-year media assault and the multi-pronged Deep State coup attempt against this President, not to mention the degree to which that phenomenon known as “Trump derangement syndrome” seems to have taken hold in the culture, so deeply as to include many of our relatives, friends, acquaintances, and church and business associates. Last but certainly not least, we are understandably apprehensive about the extent to which the certain and massive efforts of the Democrats and their allies to steal the election will be successful, aided and abetted by unethical judges and other government officials in Democrat-controlled cities and states.
Yet despite all of this, I have a strong feeling that Trump will be re-elected easily in the Electoral College, and will nearly or completely erase his 2016 deficit in the “national popular vote.” My close friends and relatives will recall that I predicted a Trump win in 2016 based on a feeling that he would take the so-called “rust belt states” by bringing out the “Reagan Democrats” who had sat out several elections, if not going back to their old party to support Clinton and Obama. My feeling is much stronger this year because, in addition to news such as is related in this post and by other credible polling outfits, every single non-poll indicator points to a major Trump victory. Recent history would have to be completely turned on its head in a variety of ways for Trump to lose, and that just isn’t at all likely to happen. Moreover, indications are that significant numbers of young Hispanic and African-American men plan to turn out for Trump, while the perennially promised yet underperforming “Yoot vote” for Democrats looks even more anemic than usual this year. Every major police union has endorsed Trump. Anecdotal evidence says many, many industrial union members are defying their leadership and voting for Trump. The Philadelphia firefighters’ union has endorsed Trump. Even a couple of popular rap stars have endorsed Trump. All of this is going to have significant impact on turnout in Trump’s favor. It has to.
So, to attempt to put numbers where my “feelz” are, I predict with absolutely zero scientific evidence (beyond the general points made above) that Trump will capture Pennsylvania and every one of the other Midwestern “battleground states” by a margin of AT LEAST 2 to 3 percent, and will take Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada by 1 to 2 percent. He will at least come close enough in Illinois to scare about fifty pounds off of the ample frame of Gov. Pritzker, TWDB*, and if the minority vote for Trump is enough to deny Biden the 80% total he needs in the cities of Chicago and Rockford and in the corrupt blue strongholds of Madison and St. Clair Counties, he will return the Land of Lincoln to its rightful place in the Republican column. And don’t even talk to me about the Democrats’ fever dream of “turning Texas blue.” As my New Yorker cousins would say, “Fuhgeddabboudit.”
In short, I can’t wait to see the long faces at all the networks, including Chris Wallace and Neil Cavuto at Fox, the newest entry into the leftist media cadre. The only place I’m not willing to make a prediction is the overall Congressional numbers, because I just don’t have much of a feeling about how long Trump’s coattails will be. I’m optimistic there, but that’s as specific as I can be.
And if I’m wrong about all of this, so be it. But I don’t think I’m far off. Be of good cheer, y’all. And needless to say, if you haven’t already voted, get out there and take as many like-minded folks with you as you can. The Trump turnout on Tuesday is going to be epic. So are the results.
*-The World’s Dumbest Billionare. Thanks for that label, Don. 🙂
I hope you are right, Frank, and you might be. It is possible that all the Rust Belt battleground states will tumble together, and if for Trump then his EC vote would beat 2016. And he could even pick off NH and NV. Of course, it could all tumble the other way too.
I’d be astonished though if he took the popular vote, but my hunch is that it will be significantly closer than 2016 even if he gives up ground in the EC.