Streaming quality is poor; best to just listen rather than watch. The main thing to look for on election night will be Ohio and Florida. If Trump takes both he is probably going to win. The mainstream media will wait a very long time before calling the Sunshine State for Trump. Early voting in Florida gives strong indication that Trump is heading for a bigger victory in Florida than he had in 2016.
What to Look for On Election Night
- Donald R. McClarey
Donald R. McClarey
Cradle Catholic. Active in the pro-life movement since 1973. Father of three, one in Heaven, and happily married for 43 years. Small town lawyer and amateur historian. Former president of the board of directors of the local crisis pregnancy center for a decade.
Good analysis. Trump and Vigano will delay the devil’s plan.
Trump must take Ohio, and he will. He can theoretically win without Florida (he would have in 2016 mathematically), but it is hugely important as a practical matter since voter attitudes there obviously will somewhat signal voter attitudes elsewhere. I would be very surprised if Trump does not win both OH and FL, but such wins suggest only that Trump can win, not that he probably will win. Assuming things develop okay for Trump in Florida and Ohio, the states to watch will be PA and WI. PA because it probably presents Trump’s single best chance to get to 270, but it is unlikely we will know much with confidence Tuesday evening, especially if Trump appears to be leading. Votes from Philly will trickle in for days afterward. OTOH Wisconsin will be a bit tougher for Trump, but its process will likely allow it to be called Tuesday evening, and a WI win for Trump would indeed mean that he will probably top 270 once other states come in. A Trump loss in WI would not be too discouraging as long as it is very close, since any of PA, MI, or MN can still put him over the top assuming he gets NC, AZ and Iowa (in addition to Ohio and Florida) as I expect him to.
I take Ohio as a given Mike based on the last go round in 2016. I think it telling that since world war II every unsuccessful Republican candidate has lost either Ohio or Florida, almost always both. The lone exception was Nixon who won both Ohio and Florida and still lost to JFK, although skullduggery in Illinois and Texas in that contest might demonstrate that the rule is always valid.
I can’t help but wonder, based on reports of large Trump parades in the Chicago suburbs, widespread rebellion against the latest restaurant lockdown orders from the world’s dumbest billionaire (Pritzker), and other factors, if Trump is doing way better in Illinois than anyone realizes. Not that he will win but maybe he will come close enough (if Biden turnout in Chicago is near or below the 80% threshold that signals trouble for statewide Dem candidates) that the pundits might have to wait longer than 30 seconds after the polls close to “call” IL.
That is my suspicious also Elaine. I have noted very apolitical people I know now sporting Trump gear.
Donald, I absolutely agree re Ohio and perhaps should have been clearer. Let me re-phrase my second sentence:
“I would be very surprised if Trump does not win both OH and FL, but such wins suggest only that Trump can get to 270, not that he probably will get to 270.”
I agree that losing OH or FL would likely be fatal for his campaign, but I do not think that will happen. OTOH Trump winning both is not fatal to Biden, who can quite plausibly win the remaining Big Ten battlegrounds (MI, WI and MN) and get to 270. Rich Baris says PA is a better bet for Trump than MI, WI or MN, which is why it is so important. But he also says WI looks like a tie, which means it could conceivably be called for Trump Tuesday evening. If so, Trump would likely take PA but probably wouldn’t need to.
But just as a win in WI will spell very good news for Trump, a surprise loss in NC, Iowa, or AZ would spell very bad news.
I guess what I am saying here is that if this comes down to PA, and Baris thinks that is very possible, it is unlikely we will have an outcome Tuesday evening. But it is possible that we will not need to wait for PA if NC, AZ, or Iowa gives us nasty surprises or instead if WI falls to Trump.
Correction — I should have included PA in my Big Ten Battleground parenthetical.
Quite agree Mike, and Wisconsin from what I have heard is looking very good, as is Minnesota. Pennsylvania is looking very good also, and the vote manufacturers in Philly will not try to play games if the Keystone State is merely icing on the Trump cake.
You are right, Don, especially if the just in Eighth Circuit decision re late ballots stands, in which case MN could also be called Tuesday evening. If Trump does take FL, OH, NC, IA, and AZ (like we both believe he will), then all he’ll need is one(!) of those Big Ten battlegrounds, and if either MN or WI is called for him Tuesday evening it should spare us the drama of evaluating the efficacy of the ensuing days’ inevitable Philly fraud for PA.
P.S. I hope you are right re WI. Baris referred to it as a “tie” yesterday. According to Rich much depends on northeastern WI male turnout, which was worrying him a bit.
Baris was concerned that he hadn’t gotten enough respondents in his poll for the great northeast of Wisconsin and he probably underestimated Trump strength there. We will know soon enough.
Expect very few Trump states to be called Tuesday night because of mail in votes arriving late. The so-called transition integrity project already poisoned that well.
Also, don’t be surprised if Biden declares himself the winner or expected or presumptive winner between 9 & 11 pm EST. Not that he’ll have any supporting evidence.
Prepping the battle space for the “Trump is stealing the election again!” caterwaling, you see.
Ernst, I believe it will blow up in the Dems’ faces in a very big way if they try to claim victory without an absolutely solid result in the Electoral College. Enough people are aware of the games going on and being planned so that it will only cause a massive backlash. But I’ve been wrong before once or twice. 🙂
Hoping, but not very optimistic.
I think a broad Trump victory is more likely than either a narrow Trump win or a narrow Biden win; and far more likely than a broad Biden victory.
I’m not sure where a disputed election result fits in the ranked order of possible outcomes.
I still believe that as important as the presidential election is the outcome for the senate. If the senate turns democratic we’re going to get another impeachment (but not conviction, because of the 2/3 senate rule) and there will be no legislation. (But maybe that’s a good thing.)